Will the Samurai Blue fall behind again?

While some pundits had fully expected Croatia to finish second in Group F, hardly anyone had Japan’s Group E win with Spain, Germany and Costa Rica on their minds.

This is the fourth time the Samurai Blue have reached the last 16 of the World Cup, but they have never made it out of the round in one piece. With that in mind, too, betting on the Kockasti is obviously the better choice when it comes to Japan vs. Croatia.

After all, the Croatians are not only the reigning runners-up, but have also remained unbeaten and without conceding a goal in two World Cup matches against the Samurai Blue so far. In addition, the Japanese team has trailed in all three of its preliminary round matches, which should be factored into the prediction for Japan against Croatia. There is therefore a lot of value in betting that the Kockasti will score first.

It could still be a game of patience, however, as the Croatians have failed to score in two of their three group matches and have played 0-0 twice, so there are unlikely to be too many goals in this round of 16 match. However, since the Kockasti have lost only two of their last eight knockout matches at World Cups (four wins, two draws), there is still a lot to be said for the Croatian national team advancing to the next round.

Incidentally, the winner of this match could then meet Brazil in the subsequent 2022 World Cup quarter-finals. At the very least, the Seleção will face South Korea in the round of 16, where the South Americans are the heavy favourites.

Japan – Statistics & current form

The Japanese national football team took a long time to qualify for a World Cup finals in 1998. Since then, however, the Samurai Blue have become an indispensable part of the World Cup. The Japanese are currently playing in their seventh World Cup in a row and have reached the last 16 for the fourth time.

However, this round has always been the end of the line for the Asians, who have never won more than two games at a World Cup. This year, however, they have already beaten two former world champions, Germany and Spain (both 2-1).

On average only 32.3% possession in the preliminary round

The 1-0 defeat to Costa Rica, in which the Samurai Blue recorded their highest-ever level of possession at 56.8%, didn’t quite fit the picture. Coach Hajime Moriyasu’s side were much more comfortable in the role of giving the ball to their opponents. Against Spain, Japan had just 26.1% possession. Against Germany, the figure was as low as 17.7%.

In addition to a remarkable efficiency in front of the opponent’s goal, the substitutes have been outstanding for Japan so far. Three of the four World Cup goals were scored by jokers. The most shots in the tournament came from Takuma Asano (eight), who was not in the starting eleven in any of the games.

Two comeback wins in the preliminary round

While the Samurai Blue go into the round of 16 as underdogs, with the betting odds swinging in the Kockasti’s direction on Japan vs Croatia. In the group stage, however, the Asians recorded two wins in a row against European nations.

Particularly striking was the fact that the Japanese side fell behind in all three of their preliminary round matches, but still managed to pull off the 2-1 comeback victory in two of the three. Meanwhile, in nine World Cup matches before that in which Japan trailed, they failed to win (two draws, seven defeats).

Predicted Japan line-up:
Gonda – Nagatomo – Yoshida – Itakura – Sakai – Tanaka – Endo – Kubo – Kamada – Ito – Maeda

Last Games of Japan:

World Cup Group E
02/12/2022 – Japan 2 – 1 Spain

27/11/2022 – Japan 0 – 1 Costa Rica

23/11/2022 – Germany 1 – 2 Japan

Friendlies
17/11/2022 – Japan 1 – 2 Canada

27/09/2022 – Japan 0 – 0 Ecuador

Croatia – Statistics & current form

The Croatian national football team has also been a regular participant in FIFA World Cups since 1998, but missed out on qualification in South Africa in 2010. In their five appearances so far, they have only made it past the group stage twice.

However, when the Kockasti have made it to the knockout rounds, they have usually been very persistent. In 1998 in France, Croatia finished third. Four years ago in Russia, they even finished runners-up in the World Cup. All in all, the Fiery Ones have only lost two of their eight knockout matches at World Cups (four wins, two draws).

Always scored in twelve of the last 14 World Cup matches

The Croatian team is still unbeaten at the current finals, but did not manage more than a goalless draw against Morocco and Belgium. A brilliant performance in a 4-1 win over Canada was nevertheless enough for the Kockasti to take second place in Group F.

However, the lack of goals in two games is unusual for the fiery side, who have always scored at least one goal of their own in eleven previous World Cup games. The betting on Japan against Croatia is correspondingly consistent, with the reigning runners-up managing to score at least one goal in the round of 16.

Will Ivan Perisic overtake Davor Suker in Qatar?

It is also interesting to see whether Ivan Perisic can still add his name to the list of goal scorers. With nine goals in World and European Championships, the Tottenham Hotspur player is currently his country’s top scorer along with legend Davor Suker, but has only been able to set up Andrej Kramaric’s two goals in the tournament so far.

The 33-year-old is unlikely to become the top scorer at the 2022 World Cup. With five shots, however, he has created the most danger in the opposing penalty areas so far and could certainly become a decisive factor against Japan as well.

Predicted line-up of Croatia:
Livakovic – Sosa – Gvardiol – Lovren – Juranovic – Kovacic – Brozovic – Modric – Perisic – Kramaric – Livaja

Last matches played by Croatia:

World Cup Group F
01/12/2022 – Croatia 0 – 0 Belgium

27/11/2022 – Croatia 4 – 1 Canada

23/11/2022 – Morocco 0 – 0 Croatia

Friendlies
16/11/2022 – Saudi Arabia 0 – 1 Croatia

UEFA Nations League A Grp. 1
26/09/2022 – Austria 1 – 3 Croatia

Japan – Croatia Direct comparison / H2H-Balance

Head to head: 1 – 1 – 1

There have been three international matches between Japan and Croatia and the record is completely even with one win and one draw each. After winning 4-3 in their first meeting at the Kirin Cup in 1997, Japan have gone winless and scoreless in two World Cup matches against Croatia. In 1998, they lost 1-0. The 2006 group match ended 0-0.

Japan – Croatia Tip

Japan vs Croatia odds are swinging in the direction of the Kockasti, who have been victorious in two World Cup round of 16 appearances, while this round has been the Samurai Blue’s final stop on three occasions. The Japanese, who have always trailed in all three of their matches in the preliminary round, will also now face a defensively strong opponent who have conceded just one goal in three group matches.

Betting on the Kockasti to score the first goal of the match offers a lot of value. That would not rule out a prediction on Japan against Croatia for the Samurai Blue, who have already turned around arrears against Spain and Germany.