Gattuso’s men are currently second, but that’s not enough. They need to win every game, score lots of goals, and improve their defense. Here’s how they can catch up with Norway in first place.
Italy took a risk, but secured a crucial victory against Israel. After their 5-0 win against Estonia, the Azzurri beat Ben Shimon’s team 5-4 in a crazy match full of mistakes, own goals, and comebacks. In the end, a goal from Tonali in the 91st minute secured the win for Gattuso’s team. Now Kean and his teammates are second in Group I with 9 points, the same as Israel (with one more game played). However, the goal difference is what counts in the standings: Italy has +5, while their opponents have +4. And to think that before the match against Estonia, the Azzurri had conceded three goals and scored two. Translated: a goal difference of -1. Fortunately, the story has changed.
The national team has a clear goal: to win all of its upcoming matches, scoring as many goals as possible and, if possible, keeping a clean sheet. The victory against Israel has allowed Italy to gain an advantage in the race for the playoffs: the second-placed team will go through the playoffs, while the first-placed team will qualify directly for the World Cup. Norway is now at the top with 12 points, while the Azzurri are three points behind with four games left to play. The head-to-head clash in the last round at San Siro, scheduled for November 16, could be decisive. In the event of a tie on points, it should not be forgotten that it will be the overall goal difference that determines the positions and not the head-to-head results. That is why goals must remain a priority for Gattuso’s team.
Danger Norway— Italy ended the September break with the best possible scenario: two wins, overtaking Israel in the standings and Norway in their sights. Solbakken’s team has a goal difference of +11, a figure that could prove decisive after the decisive match in November. First, however, the Azzurri will face Estonia away (October 11), Israel at home (October 14), and Moldova away again (November 13). Gattuso’s team cannot afford any mistakes, and a misstep by the Norwegians would help the national team’s chances even more. It is best not to make calculations and to remain focused on the field. The race for the World Cup is still long.
The criteria— Here are all the criteria in the event of a tie in the group: overall goal difference, goals scored in the group, points in head-to-head matches, goal difference in head-to-head matches, goals scored in head-to-head matches, goals scored away in head-to-head matches.
The schedule— Below are Italy’s upcoming fixtures:
• Estonia vs. Italy: October 11, 2025
• Italy vs. Israel, October 14, 2025
• Moldova vs. Italy, November 13, 2025
