Emirates hope for surprise World Cup participation
The Asian Football Confederation has five tickets up for grabs for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Currently, twelve teams are still fighting for a place in two groups of six. Last weekend, Iran became the first team to confirm its participation in the World Cup. The home match on Tuesday is therefore already the free skate. Iran and the United Arab Emirates will face each other in the capital Tehran at 15:30 hrs.
The home side can play the match without pressure and perhaps head coach Dragan Skocic will take advantage of this to make one or two experiments at competition level. The visitors are currently third in Group A and, as things stand, would take part in the play-offs. They are already four points ahead of the fourth-placed team – a comfortable lead, but by no means a preliminary decision. A point at the big favourites would be all the more important.
So far, Iran have a clean slate with 19 out of a possible 21 points. However, due to the early qualification, there are doubts about the victory of the favourites. That is why the bookmakers are offering odds of over 1.60 for a home win in the Iran vs United Arab Emirates clash. Under normal circumstances, this does not reflect the balance of power, but how seriously will the hosts approach this match?
Iran – Statistics & current form
The World Cup ticket for the team of Serbian head coach Dragan Skocic was by no means a surprise. Team Melli” was absolutely convincing in the qualification and went from success to success. For the sixth time in total, the Persians will be represented at a World Championship. The ticket was secured by a 1-0 home win against Iraq, with 29-year-old Porto attacker Mehdi Taremi scoring the golden goal. Also worth mentioning: 2,000 of the 10,000 spectators were women. Only recently have women been allowed to watch a match in Iran.
Only against South Korea was there a draw
Group A in the current Asian qualifiers certainly tends to be the easier group, as Group B features three big calibres in Saudi Arabia, Australia and Japan. In the Iran group, only South Korea was a team that was on a par with Iran. This was also evident on the green pitch, as the top match against the co-hosts of the 2002 World Cup was Iran’s only loss of points so far in this third qualifying phase.
The remaining six matches were all won, and the defence was particularly noteworthy. Five times, betting on the favourites to win without conceding a goal was the right decision. Only in the 1:1 against South Korea and the 2:1 in Lebanon did the Melli team concede goals. Impressive numbers that underline the sovereign World Cup qualification.
Personnel worries and rotation
If the home side didn’t already have qualification firmly in the bag, the betting odds on this game would swing far more clearly in the direction of the home side. Qualitatively, there is no discussion and the difference in performance cannot be denied. The Iranians do have some interesting European legionnaires. The soon-to-be Leverkusen striker Sardar Azmoun is the one with the highest market value, but is currently not available.
Regular goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand, centre-back Majid Hosseini, left-winger Mehdi Ghayedi and standard captain Ehsan Hajsafi (left-back) are also currently not an option for the favourites. In addition, there will be one or the other rotation-related change. Therefore, the prediction on the home side in the Iran vs. United Arab Emirates match seems to be risky. Value is not to be seen with the given betting odds.
Predicted line-up of Iran:
Abedzadeh – Noorafkan, Khalizadeh, Kanani, Mohrami – Jahanbaksh, Amiri, Ezatolahi, Ghoddos, Gholizadeh – Taremi
Last matches played by Iran:
World Cup – AFC Qualifiers – 3rd Round – Group A
01/27 2022 – Iran 1 – 0 Iraq
11/16 2021 – Syria 0 – 3 Iran
11/11 2021 – Lebanon 1 – 2 Iran
10/12 2021 – Iran 1 – 1 South Korea
10/07 2021 – United Arab Emirates 0 – 1 Iran
United Arab Emirates – Statistics & current form
The second qualification in the history of the United Arab Emirates was immediately crowned with success, as they were allowed to play in the concert of the greats in 1990. However, they were no more than extras as they were eliminated after three defeats. This was their only appearance at a finals so far, but that could change at the end of 2022. At least the chance of a play-off ticket against the third-placed team from the second Asian group seems more than realistic.
Four points ahead of Iraq
There are still three games to go in this stage and the UAE are currently third with nine points. Fourth-placed Lebanon have just five points, while Iraq have only four. So the starting position seems comfortable, but this is put into perspective when looking at the remaining matches. The away match in Iran is followed by a trip to Iraq and a home match against South Korea in the March double-header.
The remaining programme is anything but easy for the team from the Emirates. The biggest star of the current number 69 in the FIFA world rankings is on the coaching bench. Bert van Marwijk is a well-known coach not only in his native Holland but also in Germany. However, he cannot count on big stars and the United Arab Emirates is basically a no-name team.
Not a single player in the line-up earns his money outside the country. The quality is correspondingly low. A comparison with Iran shows a clear deficit. However, everything is still at stake for the visitors and a point at the league leader would secure third place.
Last weekend, they managed a 2-0 compulsory win at home against Syria. This means that six of the seven qualifying matches ended with a maximum of two goals. Moreover, only once was the prediction for both teams to score the right decision. Between Iran and United Arab Emirates, odds of just over 1.50 are offered for the bet that both teams will not score.
Predicted line-up of United Arab Emirates:
Ali Khaseif – Khamis, Abbas, Al Atlas, Hussain – Salmin, Ramadan – Ibrahim, Saleh, Al Zaabi – Canedo
Last matches played by United Arab Emirates:
World Cup – AFC Qualifiers – 3rd Round – Group A
01/27 2022 – United Arab Emirates 2 – 0 Syria
FIFA Arab Cup Final Stage
12/10 2021 – Qatar 5 – 0 United Arab Emirates
FIFA Arab Cup Grp. B
12/06 2021 – Tunisia 1 – 0 United Arab Emirates
12/03 2021 – Mauritania 0 – 1 United Arab Emirates
11/30 2021 – United Arab Emirates 2 – 1 Syria
Iran – United Arab Emirates Direct comparison / H2H balance
This direct comparison could hardly be clearer. After all, the two national teams have faced each other 17 times so far. Iran has confirmed its role as favourites in 13 of these matches. The team from the Emirates has only managed a draw three times and a single victory. This exception was in a friendly match in 1997, so full success is not particularly relevant for Tuesday’s clash. Iran narrowly won the first leg of the current qualifying campaign 1-0.
Iran – United Arab Emirates tip
After the fixed World Cup participation, there is still a question mark behind Iran. The hosts no longer feel any pressure and can easily afford a defeat. The home team will hardly be at its best and therefore the tip in the match between Iran and the United Arab Emirates is against the favourites.
The probability that a bet on the double chance X2 will be crowned with success is to be rated much higher than the betting odds suggest. Some injury-related absences and the lack of pressure on the home side are argument enough for this bet to be taken into consideration for the Iran vs United Arab Emirates match. A moderate five units are used as a stake in the bet.
