Does Inter lay the foundations for promotion in the first leg?
Last week, the first half of the Champions League round of 16 first legs was on the agenda, followed by the four other games this week. The insight from last week is that safety prevailed and teams just put a lot of emphasis on keeping the nil. There were no goal festivals – will this change at Inter Milan against Porto? Given the basic philosophy of both teams, betting on a game with few goals is certainly an exciting option.
In the battle for a place in the last eight between Inter Milan and Porto, the prediction on the traditional Italian club is clearly favoured. Inter finished the group stage in the autumn of 2022 in second place behind FC Bayern München, while the Portuguese side finished top of the Leverkusen group (with Atletico Madrid and FC Brugge). The Nerazzurri certainly have the higher quality in their squad, but the Italians are warned against the in-form Portuguese.
Last week there were no goals on either side in any of the four first legs. Will this change in the second part of the round of 16 first legs?
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
The reigning Italian Cup winners wanted to return to the throne in the national championship this season. An endeavour that must probably already be called a failure at the end of February. Compared to the last three years, Inzaghi’s team has the worst points tally after 23 match days, when the Nerazzurri had six and seven points more respectively. But even with last year’s points, Napoli’s dominance would leave Inter in the hunter’s role. With a 15-point gap, another runners-up finish is the maximum feeling.
The form is right
That leaves only the Coppa Italia again (semi-final against Juventus Turin) and the top flight to keep the dream of silverware alive. At least the Inzaghi eleven should not lack confidence in Wednesday’s home game. With the exception of the 0:1 defeat against FC Empoli (also due to an early red card), the Milan team has been in excellent form for weeks. They have collected ten out of a possible twelve points from the last four league games.
The memories of the opponents from Portugal are also very positive. For the tenth time, the Nerazzurri will host a Portuguese team at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium. There has not been a defeat in the statistics. Eight of the nine games were won, only Boavista Porto managed a goalless draw in 1991. Inter Milan vs Porto home win odds are definitely interesting.
With an average of 3.09 goals per game in Serie A, the Inzaghi eleven has the highest value. Still, many goals are not to be expected, because there is no unconditional offence on the international stage. Four of the six group games ended with a sub 2.5.
Last matches of Inter Milan:
Serie A
19/02/2023 – Inter Milan 3 – 1 Udinese
14/02/2023 – Sampdoria Genoa 0 – 0 Inter Milan
06/02/2023 – Inter Milan 1 – 0 AC Milan
Coppa Italia
01/02/2023 – Inter Milan 1 – 0 Atalanta Bergamo
Serie A
28/01/2023 – Cremonese 1 – 2 Inter Milan
Porto – Statistics & current form
A big dose of confidence? This is definitely also present in the team of Sergio Conceicao. However, the Dragons from Porto are also only in the role of the hunter in the domestic championship. Although Porto have played one game more, they are two points behind Benfica Lisbon. Despite 16 wins in 21 league games, Porto no longer have the title in their own hands.
22 matches without defeat
The last defeat was against their arch-rivals. On 21 October, Porto were beaten 1-0 at home. Since then, Conceicao’s side have played no fewer than 22 competitive matches, 19 of which have ended in victory. Porto have already won the League Cup and are in the semi-finals of the major cup competition. Also included in this impressive streak are four victories in the top flight. Although Porto lost their first two group games, they not only managed to progress, but also to win their group.
If the prediction of another Dragons win at Inter Milan against Porto on Wednesday is correct, FC Porto would win five Champions League matches in a row for only the second time in the club’s history (previously only between October and December 2018). Sergio Conceicao, meanwhile, is the coach with the most wins in the top flight as Porto coach. 20 of his 40 games have ended victoriously.
The recent successes in all honour, nevertheless, no value can be seen in the direction of the guests. Inter Milan are of a completely different calibre to Porto in the national championship. In addition, Sergio Conceicao is plagued by a number of injury concerns. While only Joaquin Correa is absent from Inter Milan’s squad, the visitors are without six players and have two others (Galeno and Uribe) whose fitness for action is questionable.
Last matches of Porto:
Liga Portugal
19/02/2023 – FC Porto 1 – 0 Rio Ave
13/02/2023 – Sporting CP 1 – 2 FC Porto
Cup
09/02/2023 – Academico Viseu 0 – 1 FC Porto
Liga Portugal
06/02/2023 – FC Porto 2 – 0 Vizela
02/02/2023 – Maritimo 0 – 2 FC Porto
Inter Milan – Porto Direct comparison / H2H balance
The two teams have faced each other on four occasions, all of which took place in the 2005 calendar year. In the 2004/05 season, this knockout encounter took place in the round of 16 in the spring, with the Italians claiming promotion with an aggregate score of 4:2.
A few months later, they met again in the group stage of the 2005/06 season, with the host club winning each time. Three of the four previous encounters have resulted in a home win – a possible indication that this tip is recommended for Inter Milan against Porto on Wednesday?
Inter Milan – Porto betting tips
With the abolition of the away goals rule, knockout games should actually be a little more attacking, after all, conceding a goal in front of a home crowd isn’t worth as much anymore. However, there is not only an enormous amount of prestige at stake, but also a lot of money.
As a result, caution wins out and most of these games are characterised by a defensive basic orientation. In the duel between Inter Milan and Porto, the predictions are Under 2.5 and “Both teams meet? No” can therefore be found in our top tips.
The main tip on this first leg of the Champions League Round of 16, however, as advertised above, relates to a home win for Simone Inzaghi’s Nerazzurri. A run of 22 competitive games without defeat on the part of FC Porto argues against it, but Inter Milan are of a different calibre than Porto have to cope with at home. In addition, Inter’s strong home record speaks in favour of the home side. For Inter Milan against Porto, the odds on a home win feel too high.
