Will Liverpool keep the spotless CL waistcoat?
This week, international club football finally wakes up from its winter slumber. In the UEFA Champions League, the first four first legs of this year’s round of 16 are scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.
The draw in December ended in a fiasco, as it had to be repeated due to an error. The second draw made for some top matches. One of those duels goes down at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium on Wednesday at 9pm, with Italian champions Inter Milan hosting Liverpool.
Inter Milan finished second behind Real Madrid in the group stage and will therefore play the first leg at home. Liverpool were in the so-called group of death, but were in excellent form and managed to secure their place with a maximum of 18 points. Impressive performances that mean that betting odds of just over 2.00 are offered for the visitors in Wednesday’s match between Inter Milan and Liverpool. Inter are considered relatively clear underdogs despite home advantage.
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
After the first two group matches, Inzaghi’s eleven already had their backs to the wall. Inter failed to score in both games, but then celebrated three wins in a row and managed to avoid an early exit like last year. The Inzaghi team won the last two international home games at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium. The last time Inter won three international home matches in a row was between December 2009 and November 2010 (when they won seven).
Leadership in the table squandered
On a national level, Inter have also been very strong at home this season. After eleven games, they have an average of 2.42 points (9-2-1 record). Nevertheless, the Italian champions are no longer smiling from the top of the table before the clash with the Reds.
After the international break in January, the Nerazzurri failed to win both league games. First there was the bitter derby defeat against city rivals AC Milan, before last weekend they only managed a 1-1 draw against SSC Napoli in the Partenopei. Laughing third in that draw was Inter’s city rivals AC Milan, who now salute the place in the sun with a win of their own. However, the Nerazzurri still have a catch-up game up their sleeve.
Weak results in the league
Inter Milan have won just one of their last four league games and have lacked consistency of late. This is another reason why the bookmakers’ assessment that Inter are being treated as underdogs despite home advantage is quite understandable. Compared to last year, Inter has two points less after 24 games under new head coach Simone Inzaghi. Impressive, however, is the defence, which has conceded only 20 goals.
Due to the strong defence, the weakening Inter offence (Lautaro Martinez, for example, has gone 697 minutes without a goal in the Champions League) and the enormous importance of this match, a prediction on few goals between Inter Milan and Liverpool suggests itself.
Predicted Inter Milan line-up:
Handanovic – de Vrij, Skriniar, Dimarco – Perisic, Calhanoglu, Brozovic, Barella, Dumfries – Martinez, Dzeko
Last matches played by Inter Milan:
Serie A
02/12 2022 – SSC Napoli 1 – 1 Inter Milan
Coppa Italia
02/08 2022 – Inter Milan 2 – 0 AS Roma
Serie A
02/05 2022 – Inter Milan 1 – 2 AC Milan
01/22 2022 – Inter Milan 2 – 1 Venice
Coppa Italia
01/19 2022 – Inter Milan 3 – 2 Empoli
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
While Inter Milan had to settle for a draw in their dress rehearsal, Jürgen Klopp and his Reds managed a positive test run. However, the task against last-place Burnley was also far easier than the top match against SSC Napoli. However, the Reds had a lot of trouble to fix their sixth match win in a row. Brazilian Fabinho scored the only goal of the day in adverse conditions (extreme wind).
Klopp ahead of 50th CL win
The English top club should not lack confidence after their recent successes. African Cup winner Sadio Mane also returned against Burnley after Diogo Jota was forced to sit out due to a horse kiss. The Portuguese looks set to return to the starting line-up with Roberto Firmino making way for the bench.
The Reds impressed in the Group of Death with a flawless group stage (goal difference 17-5) and could become the first team since Tottenham Hotspurs (2010/11) to win against both AC Milan and Inter in the same season on Wednesday. A win would be particularly special for Jürgen Klopp, who would become the first German coach (and only the eighth coach overall) to reach 50 wins in Champions League matches. He currently has 49 wins in 87 games.
Speaking of 50, the match will mark Mohamed Salah’s 50th CL appearance, with the Egyptian having scored 32 goals so far. He is also Liverpool’s top scorer with 18 goals in the current PL season.
Stabiliser van Dijk
The championship this season is unlikely to be an issue given the nine-point deficit (but one game of catch-up), but Liverpool nevertheless present themselves as much stronger again this season than last. They have 14 points more on the credit side and the defence in particular has been solid since the return of Virgil van Dijk. 19 goals conceded in 24 games is even one less than Inter Milan has. In comparison, there were 32 goals conceded in the first 24 PL games last year.
The Reds are in captivating form and can rely not only on their outstanding offence, but also on their defence. Another argument in favour of an under bet or “both teams score?” on Inter Milan against Liverpool. No”.
Predicted Liverpool line-up:
Alisson – Robertson, van Dijk, Matip, Alexander-Arnold – Milner, Fabinho, Henderson – Mane, Diogo Jota, Salah
Last matches played by Liverpool:
Premier League
02/13 2022 – Burnley 0 – 1 Liverpool FC
02/10 2022 – Liverpool FC 2 – 0 Leicester
FA Cup
02/06 2022 – Liverpool FC 3 – 1 Cardiff
Premier League
01/23 2022 – Crystal Palace 1 – 3 Liverpool FC
Carabao Cup
01/20 2022 – Arsenal London 0 – 2 Liverpool FC
Inter Milan – Liverpool Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
There are only four duels between the two traditional clubs in the database so far. However, the games are not really relevant for this year’s knockout duel. The two sides met for the first time in 1964/65, with Inter prevailing in the semi-finals after a first leg and a second leg. The last two matches were also played in the CL round of 16 in 2007/08. The Reds won both at home and away and secured their place in the competition with an aggregate score of 3:0.
Inter Milan – Liverpool Tip
The second-placed team from Italy welcomes the second-placed team from England and is considered a very clear underdog. While the visitors have gone from success to success in recent weeks, the Nerazzurri’s results have been unconvincing of late. Only one of the last four league games was won, which is why they lost the lead in the table. Against the Klopp disciples, who still have a spotless record in this CL season, a victory would indeed be surprising. In the case of Inter Milan against Liverpool, a tip on the three-way market is more likely to go in the direction of the visitors.
Even more interesting than such a prediction are the – too – high betting odds that not both teams will score. Martinez/Dzeko and Mane/Jota/Salah respectively are outstanding offensive lines, but both teams can also count on a very strong defence.
In addition, the stakes in the Champions League are enormous, so it can be assumed that the risk will be chosen wisely. A 2.38 for the bet that both teams will not score is therefore an interesting tip for Inter Milan against Liverpool, which is played with a five unit bet.
