Can Benfica sniff the sensation?
It’s blow after blow on the international stage, because just one week after the first leg, the second legs in the quarterfinals are already on the agenda. On Wednesday evening, two games are on the program, in which the great tension will probably no longer be given. Or will an unexpected comeback succeed once again in the top division? Such a one Roger Schmidt needs with his red eagles. On Wednesday from 9 p.m., odds of up to a 3.60 are offered on Inter Milan vs. Benfica Lisbon when betting on the guests.
For the Portuguese’s outstanding season on the international stage so far to come to no end, however, not only must they manage a win at the Giuseppe Meazza Stadium, but the visitors need a success with a two-goal lead. The first leg was won 2-0 by the ice-cold Nerazzurri thanks to two goals in the second half. The door to the semifinals is wide open and profitable for Inter Milan against Benfica Lisbon this prediction is no longer. However, we have found interesting betting opportunities for the second leg.
Inter Milan – statistics & current form
Actually, Simone Inzaghi can already plan for the semifinals. For the ninth time in club history, Inter Milan won a first leg knockout match by a two (or more) goal margin. Never before have the Nerazzurri given up this comfortable starting position in the second leg. If they actually manage to reach the semifinals on Wednesday, Inter would be back in the semifinals of the top division for the first time since 2009/10. Simone Inzaghi would even become the first Italian coach since Eugenio Bersellini (1980/81) to lead Inter into the top four.
The team with two faces
In the first leg last week, the team was ice-cold in its finishing and made the absolute most of the few chances it had. Already in the round of 16 against FC Porto, the Inter defense remained without conceding a goal in both games. However, the Nerazzurri are by no means in top form, as one disappointment follows the next in the league.
The last success in Serie A dates back to March 5. Since the 2-0 home win against promoted US Lecce, Inzaghi’s team has failed to score five times in a row. Inter even conceded four defeats in the process. The dress rehearsal for the second leg of the CL ended with a surprising 0:1 home defeat against promoted Monza.
While things couldn’t be going any better on the international stage, the failure on the domestic level means that Inter is now only fifth in the table. As the Serie A season draws to a close, Inter is facing the prospect of qualifying for the top flight once again.
With outgoing defensive boss Milan Skriniar (not renewing his expiring contract), the Nerazzurri will be missing an important pillar in the defense on Wednesday night. Stefan de Vrij was substituted with a knock in the 0-1 loss to Monza.
The duo was also not on the pitch in the first leg, but a three-man chain of Acerbi-Bastoni-Darmian does not stand for insurmountable quality. Due to the fact that the guests have to play forward imperatively, odds on both teams to score in Inter Milan vs Benfica Lisbon seem very interesting.
Last matches of Inter Milan:
Serie A
- 16/04/2023 – Inter Milan 0 – 1 Monza
Champions League Final
- 12/04/2023 – Benfica 0 – 2 Inter Milan
Serie A
- 07/04/2023 – Salernitana 1 – 1 Inter Milan
Coppa Italia
- 05/04/2023 – Juventus FC 1 – 1 Inter Milan
Serie A
- 01/04/2023 – Inter Milan 0 – 1 AC Florence
Benfica Lisbon – statistics & current form
Not only did Inter Milan suffer a 1-0 defeat in their dress rehearsal, but this also happened to Roger Schmidt’s team. Away at GD Chaves, Benfica Lisbon conceded their third defeat of the season, also the second in a row after losing the top match against Porto earlier. However, the impact from Benfica’s point of view is far less than that of Inter Milan. With six matchdays to go, the lead over chaser Porto is still four points. The 38th championship in the club’s history is within reach.
Seven CL away games unbeaten
Cross-competition, this now makes it three must-win game defeats in a row for Roger Schmidt. It’s an extremely unusual feeling, as the German’s relationship with Benfica Lisbon so far has been a real success story. In the 45 competitive games before, he has an outstanding record of 38 wins, five draws and two defeats. In the CL group stage, Paris Saint-Germain was pushed to second place.
This is mainly thanks to its strength on the international stage. Benfica Lisbon has not lost in seven appearances in the top flight (four wins, three draws). The last two away games were won, and the last time there were three victories en suite was in 1990. Since the Italian home side does not have to play for a win on Wednesday, but tends to act more in “administration mode”, the tips in the direction of the supposed underdogs can be quite interesting between Inter Milan and Benfica Lisbon.
So that the mini chance of the miracle of Milan receives food, the guest relies in particular on Goncalo Ramos. The young striker has been involved in four goals in the last four CL matches (three goals and one assist).
Last matches of Benfica Lisbon:
Liga Portugal
- 15/04/2023 – Chaves 1 – 0 Benfica
Champions League Final
- 12/04/2023 – Benfica 0 – 2 Inter Milan
Liga Portugal
- 07/04/2023 – Benfica 1 – 2 FC Porto
- 02/04/2023 – Rio Ave 0 – 1 Benfica
- 19/03/2023 – Benfica 5 – 1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
Inter Milan – Benfica Lisbon Direct comparison / H2H record
Also in the fourth meeting between these two teams, the Eagles from Lisbon had no reason to cheer. Despite a convincing season so far and a mighty lot of self-confidence, Roger Schmidt’s team had to admit defeat at home with 0:2. Benfica was superior in almost all statistics, but could not reward itself with a goal. This was the third time that the Nerazzurri remained without conceding a goal against Benfica Lisbon and hardly any expert still doubts that the Italians will advance.
Inter Milan – Benfica Lisbon Tip
Despite home advantage, Inter Milan won’t necessarily be looking to get ahead on Wednesday night. The Inzaghi eleven has impressed in the CL knockout phase so far, especially with its very strong defense and will also focus on that against the offensively strong Eagles from Lisbon. A ride on the razor’s edge, because a 2-0 lead is not a result you can feel safe with. Inter will try to create opportunities in the transition game and make the decisive pinprick.
As the game progresses, the Schmidt eleven will have to continuously increase the risk in order to keep the CL dream alive. Sooner or later, therefore, scoring opportunities should arise on both sides. Although Inter Milan has kept the clean sheet three times in the Champions League recently, predicting goals from both teams seems to be the best option for the quarterfinal second leg between Inter Milan and Benfica Lisbon.
We also consider the chances of a draw in the second leg to be very good. With a draw after 60 or 70 minutes, Benfica’s belief in the miracle will gradually fade and Inter has the quality to then carry this result over time. If the Schmidt eleven is narrowly in the lead, unconditional risk in the closing minutes will be necessary. An equalizer by Lukaku, Martinez & Co. then does not seem out of the question. A 3.50 odds is promising for this and with value attached.
