Will Munich strike back again?

Despite a generally good performance, FC Bayern Munich had to admit defeat to Inter Milan at home last week with 1:2. Not only did this end a 22-game unbeaten streak at home in the premier competition, but it also closed the door to the semi-finals a little. If the tip for an away win by the Reds does not work out against Inter Milan, it would be the end for the German record champions.

The Nerazzurri only need a draw at home, which is why the forecast for the Lombards to advance is very high against Bayern Munich. After all, the Biscione have not been defeated in their last 14 home games in the Champions League (twelve wins, two draws) and, above all, know how to take the wind out of the sails of brilliant offensive lines. A Herculean task awaits Munich.

But looking at the record, it seems that the last word has not yet been spoken. Bayern Munich have played at Inter Milan’s Giuseppe Meazza four times in an international competitive game so far, and the Reds have won every single game at the Nerazzurri by 8-1. And yet: FCB had a hard time scoring, especially away from home. 0-1 was the score against Aston Villa in the league phase, 0-3 against Feyenoord. In six of the 13 Champions League games in the 2024/25 season, Munich scored a maximum of one goal.

Inter Milan vs. Bayern Forecast AI

Supercomputer BETSiE has a very clear opinion on this Italian-German duel: the AI completely disregards the four defeats from the four previous Inter home games against the German record champions and recommends the AI forecast for the Lombards’ home win against Bayern. In other words, the BETSIER sees a very positive expected value in Tip 1, because the odds of 2.70 offered by Winamax suggest a probability of 37.1 percent that the Nerazzurri will also win the second leg.

Inter Milan – Statistics & current form

Inter Milan laid the foundation for their first appearance in the semi-finals since 2023 by winning 2-1 away in the first leg. The Nerazzurri have not lost in their last six home games in the UEFA Champions League and have not been beaten in their last 14 home games overall (twelve wins, two draws). No team in the competition has had a longer home run since Bayern Munich’s 2-0 win in September 2022.

Led by in-form Lautaro Martínez, who has scored in each of his last four Champions League appearances, the Biscione (meaning ‘viper’ in Italian) are enjoying one of the best European Cup campaigns in the club’s recent history. With seven goals, the Argentine is now only behind Hernán Crespo (nine) and Samuel Eto’o (eight) in terms of most Inter goals in a Champions League season. Particularly striking: in the first leg, the Lombards made 573 high-intensity pressing actions – more than any other team in a game this season.

A first-leg win was usually half the battle for Inter Milan

The odds are also in their favor historically: in 21 of the 23 knockout games in the premier class in which Inter won the first leg, the Italians progressed – including all five cases with a first-leg win abroad. Accordingly, the odds for Inter Milan to reach the semi-finals against Bayern are low. Betano offers odds of 1.35 for the Beneamata to progress and, with the current Betano bonus, offers not only a 100% bonus up to €80 but also an exclusive €20 freebet.

Benjamin Pavard is likely to be a particular focus at the Giuseppe Meazza, as he could make his 50th Champions League appearance against his former club. With 40 wins from 49 games, he would set the record for the most wins in the first 50 appearances in the competition. Should Inter also win on Wednesday evening, it would be their sixth consecutive Champions League victory and possibly a good omen, as the last time such a streak was achieved was in April 2010 on the way to the last win of the Henkelpot under José Mourinho…

Bayern – Statistics & current form

Bayern Munich are under pressure after the 1-2 first-leg defeat. However, the German record champions have not achieved too many remontadas of late. In seven of the last eight cases, the Reds have also been eliminated after losing the first leg. The only exception was the 2023/24 CL round of 16, in which they were able to turn around a defeat against Lazio Rome. Nevertheless, the betting tip for the game between Inter Milan and Bayern is that the Kompany team will manage the turnaround this time too, under no good omens.

After all, the four Champions League defeats this season are already the highest number of defeats by a Munich team since 2009/10. Five defeats in a single Champions League season have only happened once before. The problem, however, is that the defense has not been all that great recently. In three of the last four competitive games, FCB conceded at least two goals. Even at the weekend against BVB (2-2), Neuer’s replacement Urbig had to fish two balls out of his own net.

Bayern do too little with the many chances

Statistically, however, Bayern present a paradoxical picture: With an expected goal difference of +19.3 (32.6 xG to 13.3 xGA), they lead the entire Champions League, but in reality, they only have a goal difference of +13. No other team in the quarter-finals has squandered their chances as much, which is why we expect them to score a maximum of one away goal at the Giuseppe Meazza.

However, the experience in the squad gives hope. Above all, Thomas Müller, who could play his 162nd Champions League game against Inter. Only three players in the history of the competition have more appearances. Despite the first-leg defeat, the belief in progressing remains – not least because of eleven wins from the last 14 games against Italian teams (one draw, two defeats). But beware: the two defeats were in the last three duels with Serie A clubs. The pressure on the coaching staff and the team is therefore enormous, although the Champions League has often been the stage for great comebacks for the German record champions.

Inter Milan – Bayern Head to head / H2H record

Head to head: 4 – 1 – 5

A total of ten international competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, and with five wins, Bayern Munich still leads the direct comparison. The Reds have been very happy to play at the Giuseppe Meazza so far, where they have always celebrated an away win at Inter Milan in four guest appearances, with 8:1 goals.

Inter Milan – Bayern betting tip

All in all, our prediction for Inter Milan against Bayern tends towards Munich’s elimination. But the game is not over yet, of course. One goal at the Giuseppe Meazza is enough for the Reds to equalize the overall result. However, the Nerazzurri have not lost any of their last 14 Champions League home games (12 wins, 2 draws), while FCB have struggled in many away games in the premier class in 2024/25. They lost 0-1 at Aston Villa, 1-4 in Barcelona and 0-3 at Feyenoord.

Nevertheless, the Giuseppe Meazza suits the Munich team, who are guaranteed to give their all on Wednesday evening. However, we do not think it is too likely that this will be enough for more than one away goal. It is therefore a good bet to bet on FCB scoring a maximum of one goal in regular time.