Will Flick lead Barca to the CL final in Munich?

If there were a ranking of the three highest-quality soccer games worldwide in the 2024/25 season, the first leg between FC Barcelona and Inter Milan would definitely have a place on the podium. Last Wednesday’s 3-3 draw lived up to all the experts’ expectations. Sensational goals, pure drama and a starting position that makes the upcoming second match at the Stadio San Siro virtually a 50-50 affair. It’s no coincidence that the odds for an Inter Milan vs. Barcelona tip on which team will reach the final in Munich are pretty close.

Although the Nerazzurri enjoy home advantage on Tuesday evening and have not lost a Champions League match at home for years, the bookmakers with Paysafecard are giving a very narrow prediction in favor of the Catalans between Inter Milan and Barcelona. This assessment is partly due to the fact that Inzaghi’s team has been struggling recently, while the La Liga leaders continue to plow through all competitions and have so many weapons at their disposal, especially in attack, that an exit in the semifinals would come as a surprise to many.

Inter Milan vs. Barcelona prediction AI

A predicted probability of 43.5% for a home win would actually result in fair odds of 2.30 at most. At the top, however, you can even get 3.05 on the 1X2 market. Even the double chance 1X or the DNB 1 can therefore be played without hesitation and with value according to the Inter Milan vs. Barcelona AI prediction. This assumption is supported by xG values of 1.59 to 1.33, which also imply advantages for “Il Biscione.”

Inter Milan – Statistics & current form

After 2010 and 2023, Inter Milan is aiming for the third Champions League final in the club’s history. A week ago, the Italians earned a 3-3 draw in Catalonia, which head coach Simone Inzaghi and his staff would certainly have considered a top result before kickoff. However, considering the squandered leads and Mkhitaryan’s controversial winning goal, which was disallowed, the Black and Blues could have achieved even more in the end. Nevertheless, Calhanoglu and Co. have all the cards in their hands for the second leg in front of their own fans!

Will Lautaro Martinez be fit in time?

The fact that the odds for Inter Milan against Barcelona are still higher for the home team is partly due to the fact that captain Lautaro Martinez, possibly the most important attacker, may be out due to injury. The Argentine left the pitch in tears a week ago and did not return to the squad at the weekend in the narrow 1-0 home win against Hellas Verona. At the moment, the Italian media are assuming it will be a race against time, although Filippo Conticelli, the editor responsible for Inter at Gazzetta dello Sport, is firmly convinced that Martinez will play. You can get more insider information straight from the fashion capital in the Beidfüßig video on Inter vs. Barcelona [LINK].

To make matters worse, Milan has completely lost its momentum. La Beneamata has lost three of its last five competitive games. Looking back on the last six games across all competitions, there has been just one win to celebrate. Inter were knocked out of the cup semi-finals by city rivals AC and also lost their lead in Serie A. Currently three points behind Napoli, Inter need the Partenopei to slip up in the remaining three games to keep their title defense alive.

Nevertheless, there are also positive aspects that could influence the Inter Milan vs. Barcelona prediction. For example, the Nerazzurri have not lost any of their last 15 home games in the UEFA Champions League (12-3-0). Regardless of this, the first leg a week ago showed that Inzaghi’s team has serious advantages, especially from set pieces, and can rely on more physicality. A key to success must therefore be to provoke a lot of set pieces and get strong headers like Acerbi, Bastoni, Bisseck, or Dumfries into position.

Barcelona – Statistics & current form

FC Barcelona still has the opportunity to cap off an outstanding season with three major titles. The Catalans have already won the Spanish Cup, and the Clásico against Real Madrid this coming weekend could decide the La Liga title. In the Champions League, however, Inter Milan awaits, which is the ultimate challenge and one that comes with many pitfalls. The Italians’ efficiency in particular, who scored two goals from set pieces in the first leg and punished Bayern’s mistakes mercilessly in the quarter-finals, could prove to be a problem.

How can Inter Milan stop Lamine Yamal?

Strictly speaking, however, it is not the goal of Hansi Flick and his team to win games without conceding goals. Instead, the primary objective is to get the ball over the goal line (even) more often than the respective opponent. Because they have done this very well so far this Champions League season, scoring 40 (!) goals, and no other team has even come close to this figure, it is definitely worth considering checking the betting odds for at least two Barca goals before Inter Milan’s return leg against Barcelona.

Another factor in the Blaugrana’s favor is the fact that Robert Lewandowski has returned to team training after recovering from injury and is expected to make his comeback. However, he will probably start on the bench, especially as his backup Ferran Torres got on the scoresheet a week ago.

Lamine Yamal is of course a potential goalscorer again on Tuesday, having put in a powerful performance in the first leg, recording 13 successful dribbles – a record in this season’s Champions League – and almost single-handedly keeping the Inter defense busy. If Yamal scores again, this would result in betting odds of 3.05 for Inter Milan at Interwetten.

For the sake of completeness, however, it should be mentioned that Hansi Flick, who once led Bayern to CL glory and has lost only one competitive game with his team in the current calendar year, a 1-3 defeat in the meaningless quarter-final second leg in Dortmund, has to reshuffle his back four. Rafael Araujo is likely to start at right-back in place of the injured Jules Kounde. Gerard Martin will be called upon on the left in the absence of Balde, who is also unavailable. A wild match with plenty of goals at both ends seems almost inevitable!

Inter Milan – Barcelona Head-to-head record / H2H record

Inter Milan and Barcelona will face each other in a competitive international match for the 18th time. Only three other pairings have met more often in European Cup history. Barca currently leads the head-to-head record with eight wins and six draws. The Blue and Reds have lost only three games against the Black and Blues. Away from home, however, the FCB’s record leaves room for improvement. They have won only one of six games at San Siro. The last two encounters ended in a 3-3 draw. Betting on over goals is likely to be a smart move again on Tuesday evening in Milan’s football temple.

Inter Milan – Barcelona Tip

If the return leg between Inter Milan and Barcelona is anything like the first leg in terms of spectacle, quality, and drama, then we can look forward to a heated 90 minutes (+X) on Tuesday evening. In my opinion, the visitors have the slightly better chances of advancing. Yamal and Co. have been too strong so far this season. Furthermore, it cannot be assumed that Inter will again score two goals from set pieces or once again demonstrate their ruthless efficiency. Football is a game of probabilities, so I’m going with the Catalans’ higher quality and better form.

However, as there is always a certain residual risk, I am hedging my bets with an Asian handicap. If the score is tied after 90 minutes, I will at least get half of my five units back. If Flick’s team wins in regular time at San Siro, my Inter Milan vs. Barcelona tip on the away handicap (-0.25 AH) will be completely correct. My prediction is a 2-3 result. Lamine Yamal is a potential goalscorer and offers the best risk-reward ratio with top odds of 3.05.