Will Inter defeat their city rivals for the first time in five attempts?

There are currently two clubs across Europe that can still win the coveted treble. Alongside FC Barcelona, Barca’s opponents in the Champions League semi-finals, Inter Milan are still in contention on all three fronts. On Wednesday evening, Simone Inzaghi’s side have their destiny in their own hands as they seek to reach the Coppa Italia final. After the first leg ended in a 1-1 draw three weeks ago, the stage is set for the fifth Derby della Madonnina of the season. Basically, however, the bookmakers are favoring Inter Milan over AC Milan.

In previous city derbies, however, the Rossoneri have proven to be a very difficult opponent for the Serie A leaders. None of the four previous encounters in the current season have been won by “La Beneamata” against “Il Diavolo.” The fact that the predictions are once again in favor of the Bayern conquerors ahead of Wednesday evening’s match between Inter Milan and AC Milan has mainly to do with the different form curves.

The Red and Blacks in particular have been lagging well behind their own expectations for many months and are even fighting for a place in international competition in 2025/26. This makes the Italian Cup all the more important for Conceicao’s team, as overall victory would automatically secure a place in the Europa League.

Inter Milan – Statistics & current form

After 13 consecutive competitive games without defeat (nine wins, four draws), Inter Milan suffered another defeat at the weekend. The Champions League semi-finalists lost the complicated away game in Bologna by a narrow 0-1 margin thanks to a spectacular last-minute side-foot shot by Riccardo Orsolini. Because their direct rivals from Naples did their homework successfully, two teams are now tied at the top of the Serie A table. If nothing changes in the next five matchdays, there will be a playoff for the Italian championship…

Will the tired Interisti pull themselves together again in the city derby?

But if there’s one thing the Nerazzurri are struggling with at the moment, it’s undoubtedly the immense strain. Since the international break in March, coach Simone Inzaghi’s players have had almost nothing but midweek games. The many matches in such a short period of time are now taking their toll, with many tired professionals on one side and various niggles leading to enforced breaks on the other. Marcus Thuram, Inter’s top scorer in the league with 14 goals, will miss the second leg of the cup semi-final due to a thigh muscle injury.

In general, the poor fitness of the very experienced team from the blue and black part of Milan – in addition to the special derby character – is also the main reason why odds of over 2.00 are being offered on Il Biscione’s success between Inter Milan and AC Milan. Incidentally, you can currently find the highest odds in the Betano app, where you can also combine several match markets with the handy Bet Builder. Depending on how high the risk you are willing to take is, it is also worth claiming the $20 free bet from Betano with the code BETMAX.

In my opinion, it is definitely an option to bet on the reigning Italian champions winning the Inter Milan vs. AC Milan match after regular time. This is especially true considering that they have lost only one competitive match at their home stadium, the Guiseppe Meazza Stadium, throughout the entire season. That was a 1-2 defeat against their city rivals in September.

However, those who don’t want to take the risk of a decision after 90 minutes can opt for the double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals, which includes a possible 1-1 draw, at an impressive 1.82. Alternatively, Lautaro Martinez is available at 2.65 in the Interwetten app as a potential goalscorer. The Argentine is in good form, loves big games and will certainly feel even more responsibility in the absence of his congenial strike partner.

Predicted line-up:
Sommer; Bisseck, De Vrij, Bastoni; Darmian, Frattesi, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Augusto; Martinez, Arnautovic

AC Milan – Statistics & current form

Former European Cup winners AC Milan are currently facing a huge mess. If the Rossoneri do indeed fail to qualify for a UEFA competition, it would be an absolute disaster for the Red Bird Capital company, which is almost entirely owned by the Italian giant.

At the moment, however, there are many indications that they will not finish in the top six or seven of the table. After 33 of 38 matchdays, the Red and Blacks are only in ninth place. Roma, in sixth place, already have six points more to their name. To make matters worse, Conceicao’s team still has a few difficult tasks ahead of them. While it would be presumptuous to say that the league has slipped behind the cup competition in the list of priorities, it is now clear to everyone involved that a Coppa Italia triumph would save what has been a completely botched season.

Will Milan’s defense once again reach its limits?

However, the omens for a surprise coup on Wednesday evening in the Derby della Madonnina are not particularly promising. Il Diavolo has won only three of its last nine league games. Just this weekend, they suffered a heavy blow with a 0-1 home defeat against Atalanta Bergamo. The fact that they have conceded at least two goals in six of their last nine league games has caused great discontent among fans, management, and the coaching team.

If goalkeeper Mike Maignan, who had to be treated in hospital ten days ago after an unfortunate defensive action but returned between the posts at the weekend, concedes at least two goals again, this would significantly reduce the likelihood of the red and black Milanese reaching the final. On the other hand, the betting odds of 1.91 for over 1.5 Inter goals in the city derby between Inter Milan and AC Milan would pay off at VBET. With the VBET bonus, you get betting credit even without making a deposit.

Predicted line-up:
Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic; Jimenez, Fofana, Reijnders, Hernandez; Pulisic, Abraham, Leao

Inter Milan – AC Milan Head-to-head record / H2H record

As mentioned in the introduction, this is the fifth (!) Milan derby of the season. Inter Milan has not won any of the four previous encounters. The first leg in Serie A ended 2-1 to AC, while the spectacular Super Cup final in Saudi Arabia ended 3-2. The second leg of the Serie A season and the first leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final ended in two 1-1 draws.

Many goals are the exception rather than the rule in these usually very competitive encounters between archrivals, which is why under bets make much more sense for Wednesday evening’s return leg at Milan’s football temple than predicting a goal fest.

Inter Milan – AC Milan Tip

For the fifth and definitely last time this season, Milan is looking forward to the Derby della Madonnina. After the Rossoneri came out on top in the previous four direct encounters (2-2-0), Inter is determined to strike back in the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final. Despite the immense strain of recent weeks, the remarkable form of Inzaghi’s team is more important than the supposed fitness handicap of the Black and Blues.

The Rossoneri are currently struggling to get off the ground, winning only three of their last nine league games and having to contend with an incredible number of distractions. Another change of coach in the summer seems imminent. I doubt that Reijnders and Co. will be able to put their superior rivals in their place again under these circumstances. My Inter Milan vs. AC Milan tip is therefore for 1X & Under 3.5, which even covers a potential draw. The highest odds are 1.82 at Merkur Bets. My fictional stake is five units.