Will Inter march confidently into the final in Istanbul?
Carlo Ancelotti, Marcelo Lippi, Fabio Capello and Massimiliano Allegri. These are the names of only four Italian coaches so far to lead an Italian team to the UEFA Champions League final. On Tuesday evening, another coach will definitely join this elite circle. At the moment, there are many indications that it will be Simone Inzaghi rather than Stefano Pioli.
Because the first leg between Inter Milan and AC Milan proved to be a Nerazzurri success, with Inzaghi’s side even coming out on top 2-0 as the nominal visitors, the Rossoneri will need an absolutely superb day in the second leg at the San Siro to turn the tide.
In the long history of the top flight, there has only ever been one club to overturn a two-goal deficit in the first leg of the competition in the second leg.
In 2018/19, Barcelona once won the first leg 3-0 against Liverpool at Camp Nou, only to be knocked out 4-0 at Anfield Road. The Reds’ double goal scorer was a certain Divock Origi, who now works for Milan. A good omen for the second half of this derby de la Madonnina?
The fact is that the bookmakers no longer necessarily believe that the red and black team will reach the final. Bet365 is currently offering 13.00 at the top between Inter Milan and AC Milan for a bet on the Pioli team advancing.
Inter Milan – Statistics & current form
Did you know that Inter Milan have only lost to one club so far in the entire 2022/23 Champions League season? The blue-and-blacks have already played eleven matches in the top flight, only losing out to FC Bayern in the group stage in the first and second legs.
The fact that the Lombards have not conceded a goal in seven of the other nine matches and have not trailed for a single second in the knockout round alone impressively underlines that coach Simone Inzaghi’s team is rightly in the semi-finals and has the best chance of making it to the final in Istanbul. Incidentally, with Juventus in 2014/15 and 16/17, there has only been one Italian club that has managed to reach the CL final completely undefeated.
Inter are ploughing through this knockout stage of the top flight so far
The prospects for the 2010 Champions League winners are also bright in that Lautaro Martinez and co. are in truly impressive form at the moment. They have won their last five league matches to consolidate their place in the Champions League.
With seven wins in a row and eight consecutive unbeaten games, Inzaghi’s side have the advantage in terms of confidence and momentum. This is yet another reason to tip the scales in favour of the official home team between Inter Milan and AC Milan.
Finally, it should be mentioned that in the knockout phase of the Champions League, Inter have reached the next round in six out of seven cases when the first leg was won. Moreover, since the defence has been very solid at international level recently, keeping a clean sheet in four out of five knockout games, we think it is unlikely that the local rivals will score two or more goals in the second leg. Of course, the starting position also plays into “La Beneamata’s” hands.
Last matches of Inter Milan:
Serie A
- 14/05/2023 – Inter Milan 4 – 2 Sassuolo
Champions League Final
- 11/05/2023 – AC Milan 0 – 2 Inter Milan
Serie A
- 06/05/2023 – AS Roma 0 – 2 Inter Milan
- 04/05/2023 – Verona 0 – 6 Inter Milan
- 30/04/2023 – Inter Milan 3 – 1 Lazio Roma
AC Milan – Statistics & current form
While Inter Milan won 4-2 at home to Sassuolo at the weekend, AC Milan suffered the next setback in Serie A. The Rossoneri lost 0-2 to relegation candidates La Spezia and once again fell far short of their own expectations. As a consequence of this defeat, the gap to the last Champions League place has already grown to four points. In 2023/24, there is the threat of another season in Europe’s most important club competition without the multiple title holders from the fashionable city.
In general, the current form of the red and black team must be viewed critically. Stefano Pioli’s team has only won two of the last seven league games. In the top flight, the record reads much better, with French keeper Mike Maignan keeping a clean sheet in four of his last six matches at international level. It was all the more surprising, then, that he had to fish the ball out of the net twice in the immediate early stages of the game a week ago.
Milan hopes for Leao return
Only in one of the five occasions when “Il Diavolo” lost the first leg in the Champions League knockout phase did they ultimately reach the next round. Apart from that, Milan have won only one of the past 16 knockout matches in this competition as an away team. 15 goals have been scored in their last 24 appearances in the final round of the most important club competition on this continent.
Consequently, it is now very unlikely that the odds on the Pioli eleven advancing will pay off in the Inter Milan vs AC Milan city derby. It is also clear that the Rossoneri are under pressure to take more risks and will inevitably have to do things on the pitch that they are not really comfortable with. Rafael Leao and Co. probably won’t get many opportunities to turn the ball over, so there’s even a question mark over whether the current fifth-placed team in Serie A will be able to score at all.
At least the Tifosi can hope for the return of the aforementioned Portuguese. After Leao was missing in the first leg and Milan lost a lot of pace and dribbles, we fear that Leao will not get the space he needs to play to his full potential. It should also be obvious that a player who has already set up five goals in the current CL season and also leads the team’s internal scorer ranking in the league with twelve goals and eight assists must always be taken into account.
Last matches of AC Milan:
Serie A
- 13/05/2023 – Spezia 2 – 0 AC Milan
Champions League Final
- 11/05/2023 – AC Milan 0 – 2 Inter Milan
Serie A
- 06/05/2023 – AC Milan 2 – 0 Lazio Roma
- 04/05/2023 – AC Milan 1 – 1 Cremonese
- 29/04/2023 – AS Roma 1 – 1 AC Milan
Inter Milan – AC Milan Direct comparison / H2H Record
This is the fifth time the local rivals have faced each other this season. The last three of the previous four duels all went to Inter. In Serie A, in the Super Coppa and in the semi-final first leg of the Champions League, “La Beneamata” kept the upper hand and did not concede a single goal. The last time Inter won four derbies in a season was in 1973/74, while AC have never played four goalless games in a row against Inter. Will that change on Tuesday evening at the San Siro?
Inter Milan – AC Milan Tip
Not only the Italian Tifosi, but all football fans around the world are looking forward to the second legs in the UEFA Champions League this week. Carsten Fuß and I have also taken a close look at all the European Cup matches from Tuesday to Thursday with selected experts.
The starting position before the first semi-final between Inter Milan and AC Milan seems much clearer. Betting odds in the range of a 2.10 are offered for Tuesday evening on the success of the Inzaghi eleven. The Nerazzurri already won the first leg 2-0 and also have many other advantages on their own side. First and foremost is their better form. Apart from that, the fact that the Rossoneri, who have been rather harmless lately, will have to take more and more risks as the game progresses, also plays into the blue-blacks’ favour.
We have therefore decided to bet between Inter Milan and AC Milan that Inter will not lose the match, but that a maximum of three goals will be scored in the course of the match.
