HSV with their backs to the wall

On Monday, the final ticket for the 2023/24 season in the first Bundesliga will be awarded. Two applicants are still in the competition, but if you just take a closer look at the documents and references, the job is as good as taken. Therefore, we do not need to create any artificial tension in our HSV vs VfB Stuttgart tip. The Swabians submitted the clearly more meaningful and therefore better application in the first leg.

The VfB management has certainly not been without mistakes this season. Otherwise, with such quality in the squad, the Swabians really shouldn’t have had anything to do with relegation. With Sebastian Hoeneß, Stuttgart have obviously hired the right man in the coaching position, because since then their belief in staying in the relegation zone has steadily increased thanks to stable performances.

To be honest, there are now only minimal residual doubts about VfB staying in the league. The 3-0 scoreline from last Thursday’s first leg speaks for itself, and there is no denying that Hamburg were well served by that result. Anyone who has seen this first encounter between HSV and VfB Stuttgart will hardly make the prediction that the Hanseatic League will pull off the miracle after all.

Of course, the Hanseatic League has not yet given up on itself. No team in the world would congratulate their opponents even after a 3-0 defeat in the first leg. However, the statements from the Elbe are clearly less combative than was the case before the first meeting.

HSV – Statistics & current form

Throughout the season, HSV coach Tim Walter has made it clear time and again that his team will play first-class football in the coming season. In percentage terms, the chances were always good to very good. Now, however, they have shrunk to a minimum. Only the boldest optimists still believe that Hamburg will be playing in the top flight in the coming season.

Home record as last encouragement

Though the statistics before the first leg last week were quite noteworthy. Hamburg were the best away team in the second Bundesliga, scoring the most goals there. There was none of that in the first leg in Stuttgart alone. These balances have already been run into the ground by VfB. Now the Red Shirts will have to look for other encouragers.

One of these, however, is quickly found. The Volkspark has become a fortress in recent weeks. In the last ten competitive games in their own arena, there has been no defeat, but eight victories. Against Nuremberg and Hanover, there were even victories with a difference of three or more goals, which is exactly what the Hanseatic League needs on Monday. After the weak performance on Thursday, however, we are not looking at the odds for a home win in the second leg between HSV and VfB Stuttgart.

This is also due to the fact that Hamburg proved not to be Bundesliga-ready in the first leg. Only keeper Daniel Heuer Fernandes was able to distinguish himself with numerous saves, including a held penalty. The defence, on the other hand, was once again too static, the flanks were not close enough to the opponent defensively and, with a few exceptions, almost nothing went forward. If they want to achieve the miracle, Hamburger SV will have to be much bolder and more consistent on Monday.

Predicted line-up of HSV:

Hamburg SV (Expected line-up) 4-3-3

Substitute bench

• 37 Valon Zumberi
• 18 Bakery Jatta
• 46 Elijah Krahn
• 42 Ogechika Heil
• 7 Filip Bilbija
• 47 Nicolas Oliveira Kisilowski
• 16 Francisco Montero
• 2 William Mikelbrencis
• 19 Matheo Raab

Injured and suspended players from HSV:

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form

Soccer is not always predictable. Otherwise, VfB Stuttgart would have had absolutely nothing to do with relegation in the top flight and would probably have had to secure the class early on. The personnel that the Swabians bring to the pitch and have on the bench, including the staff, is certainly first-class and it is therefore no surprise that VfB clearly decided the first leg in their favour.

Turnaround under Sebastian Hoeneß

But it took Sebastian Hoeneß to tease the potential out of the players. Under his direction, there was one defeat in the DFB Cup and one in the Bundesliga. The other eight games were all not lost. We assume it will be heading in the same direction on Monday, and would be reticent to make a prediction on a Hamburg win between HSV and VfB Stuttgart.

We rather see the Swabians as favourites in this second leg as well, at least if both teams bring anything close to what was seen in the first leg. VfB have the better playmaking class, much more pace, a broader squad and considerably more determination. All in all, these should be the ingredients for Sebastian Hoeneß’ team not to lose any more points on Monday at Volkspark.

However, it has to be said that the relegation could not have started better for the Swabians. After less than a minute Konstantinos Mavropanos scored the 1:0. This goal was worth its weight in gold, of course, to calm the nerves and prevent them from trembling. Josha Vagnoman and Sehrou Guirassy added two more goals. The only reproach VfB have to make are the missed chances, because in the end HSV could not have complained about conceding five or six goals.

Predicted line-up of VfB Stuttgart:

VfB Stuttgart (Expected line-up) 4-4-2

Substitute bench

• 20 Luca Pfeiffer
• 14 Silas Katompa Mvumpa
• 10 Tiago Tomas
• 28 Nikolas Nartey
• 25 Lilian Egloff
• 7 Tanguy Coulibaly
• 23 Dan-Axel Zagadou
• 15 Pascal Stenzel
• 41 Dennis Seimen

Injured and suspended VfB Stuttgart players:

HSV – VfB Stuttgart Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

It’s actually a shame that Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart meet in the relegation and only one of these two clubs will be first-class in the coming season. Both have an extremely large fan base and even more tradition. Together, both teams spent a total of 52 years in the Bundesliga. In fact, there have been a total of 119 direct duels.

The Swabians have done slightly better in the encounters against HSV and are 49:46 ahead after victories. 24 duels ended in a draw. The last encounter last Thursday should still be remembered especially by the Swabians. After the 3-0 home win, they have more than a leg up as the 18th team in the Bundesliga for the 2023/24 season.

HSV – VfB Stuttgart Tip

There will be no great tactics for Hamburger SV on Monday. If you still want to use the minimal chance of promotion, then you have to give full throttle from the first minute. The Hanseatic team will have to put all their eggs in one basket and with their own fans behind them, they should at least put in a better performance than last Thursday in Stuttgart.

After all, the Hanseatic League has been unbeaten for ten home games. We expect Hamburg to break the deadlock early on, and that’s why we also expect them to score at least one goal, even if it’s only a consolation goal.

Even with a lot of goodwill, we can’t imagine that Tim Walter’s team will take off their rucksack from the first leg and put the Swabians in their place in such a way that they will still be promoted. Our analysis goes the other way and we have decided to play the betting odds on a win for the first division team in this second leg between HSV and VfB Stuttgart.