Will the Irons keep TSG at bay?

On Saturday, there will be a real basement battle in the Kraichgau when the current 15th place team welcomes the current 14th place team. Both clubs are only above the line because three Bundesliga clubs, Heidenheim, Kiel and Bochum, were even worse. If the tip for the home win of the Sinsheimers should now rise against Union Berlin, TSG would draw level with the capital city team in points. The FCU, on the other hand, would create plenty of breathing space in the table basement with an away win.

The Köpenickers’ lead over the relegation place could grow to as many as ten points if the prognosis of an away win for Union Berlin proves true in the match between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin. However, the most recent results speak against this. The capital city team have only won one of their last 13 league games (four draws, eight defeats), scoring a measly eight goals in those 13 games.

In general, the offense is the big Achilles’ heel of the Köpenicker, who, with only 16 goals from 20 league games, have the weakest attack in the top flight of German football. FCU have already gone nine games without scoring – including four of the five Bundesliga games under new coach Steffen Baumgart. But TSG Hoffenheim have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 30 Bundesliga home games.

Nevertheless, it should not be too goal-rich in this basement duel, in which the guests must avoid defeat at all costs. We therefore find the biggest value in the tip that a maximum of two goals will be scored, which can be played at odds of 2.00 at Betano.

Hoffenheim vs. Union Berlin prognosis KI

In principle, the supercomputer BETSiE confirms what we have already suspected when looking at the odds: in the three-way system, the quotations are very cleverly set so that there is no sufficiently high value to justify placing a bet on one or the other outcome. However, as far as our approach of assuming a not-too-scorching basement duel is concerned, the AI is very skeptical.

In fact, it calculates an expected goals value of 1.35 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.08 for 1. FC Union Berlin. Strictly speaking, the total of 2.44 is below the threshold of 2.5 goals. Nevertheless, the AI still predicts that there will be at least two goals and, in particular, one goal per side in the game between Hoffenheim and Union Berlin, although the most likely outcome is likely to be a 1-1 draw.

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

TSG Hoffenheim just can’t get out of the lower reaches of the table and is really lucky that 1. FC Heidenheim is currently the first Bundesliga team to pick up only 14 points from 20 league games, despite being ranked 16th since the three-point rule was introduced. So just because three teams have performed poorly historically, the blue-and-whites are still above the line in what is their third-worst Bundesliga season of all time.

The team from the Kraichgau region of Germany even has a cushion of four points over 16th place, but that could quickly be used up if the betting tip for a home win against Union Berlin doesn’t pan out again. TSG has already lost five of the last nine Bundesliga games against the Irons (two wins, two draws).

Hoffenheim rarely plays to zero

Even the change of coach to Christian Ilzer did not bring the hoped-for turnaround. Not only did TSG fail prematurely in the Europa League, but it also only managed to pick up nine out of a possible 30 points in the Bundesliga under the Styrian.

The Baden-Württemberg team’s main problem is their defense, which has already conceded 22 goals in the first half of the season, more than any other team in the league except Kiel (30). To make matters worse, they have not kept a clean sheet at home in the Kraichgau for a long time. The last clean sheet in the Bundesliga was in April 2023 against Schalke 04. Since then, Hoffenheim has conceded at least one goal in 30 Bundesliga home games in a row, which could be the sticking point again.

Predicted Hoffenheim lineup:

Union Berlin – statistics & current form

After narrowly avoiding relegation last season, 1. FC Köln is also playing a minor role in the Bundesliga again this year. For this reason, adjustments were also made to the coaching staff in the capital during the winter. However, an effect is also missing at FCU.

Under Steffen Baumgart, the problems continue. The Berliners have only managed to get four out of a possible 15 points under their new manager, and have not scored in four of the five games. In total, there have already been nine league games in which the Irons have not scored. Only FC St. Pauli (ten) have more clean sheets in the league.

Union Berlin with great difficulty in the end

The 16 goals scored, however, are the league-wide low, with eight of the 16 goals scored on the first seven matchdays. On the subsequent 13 matchdays, which only brought a single three (four draws, eight defeats), FCU also scored just eight goals.

Against this background, it is not surprising that the odds against Hoffenheim winning a point against Union Berlin speak against the guests winning a point. At LeoVegas, where new customers at LeoVegas Bonus can currently get a 100% deposit bonus up to €100, quotes of 3.35 are available for Tip 2. Only five out of a possible 30 points on foreign pitches are ultimately bettered by the two teams threatened with relegation, Bochum (one point) and Kiel (three points).

Predicted Union Berlin lineup:

Hoffenheim v Union Berlin – head to head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 4 – 2 – 5

Only eleven competitive games have taken place between the two teams so far, and with five wins, 1. FC Union Berlin only just lead the direct comparison against TSG Hoffenheim. However, after the first two duels went to the Sinsheim team, the Berliners have only lost two of the last nine Bundesliga games against the Sinsheim team (five wins, two draws).

Hoffenheim – Union Berlin betting tip

All in all, our forecast for Hoffenheim against Union Berlin is for a cellar duel that won’t be too goal-rich. Although the TSG’s defense is quite inviting for a team as tame as the Köpenickers. After all, the Kraichgauer have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 30 Bundesliga home games. However, the Irons must not risk too much, because an away defeat would massively complicate the situation, which is why we expect Baumgart’s team, who may also be happy to take the 0-0 in case of doubt, to play very defensively.

We also think it is unlikely that the out-of-form Sinsheim team will crack the Iron’s defense and score multiple times. Therefore, betting on a maximum of two goals provides a lot of value.