The duel of the Bundesliga wonder bags
Close games don’t seem to be something TSG Hoffenheim necessarily like this season. Looking back at the past three matches alone, we see a 5:0 win, a 0:4 defeat and again a 5:1 victory. In fact, in only one of the eleven matches played that did not end in a draw was the margin of victory or defeat one goal.
But anyone who now believes that coach Sebastian Hoeneß’ team will break out to one of the two extremes on Friday night could be proved wrong, because even though the odds are pointing to a home victory in the opening matchday ten in the Bundesliga between Hoffenheim and Hertha, the Kraichgauer are facing an uncomfortable task with the “old lady” that should by no means be underestimated.
The capital club celebrated two league victories in a row and also won the DFB Pokal during the week. Matches against the Sinsheimers, however, have rarely been crowned with success in recent years. The Berliners have only won one match in the last eleven direct encounters. Against this background, we would advise against predicting an away win between Hoffenheim and Hertha. We do not expect many goals on Friday evening in the PreZero Arena either.
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
For TSG Hoffenheim, the matchday ten encounter against their direct neighbours in the table is definitely one with a trend-setting character. On the one hand, it is a matter of staying in touch with the European Cup places, which are currently three points away. On the other hand, the Kraichgauer would certainly not complain if they could finally find some consistency in their own development and form.
TSG have not yet won two competitive games in a row in regular time this season. This spell could finally be broken on Friday evening, after Holstein Kiel were shot out of their own stadium 5:1 in the second round of the DFB Cup. Once again, it became clear that the Blue and Whites are much stronger at home than away from home at the moment.
Does the TSG have to be patient?
This assessment can also be proven statistically, after all, seven of the eleven points recorded were taken at home. The Sinsheim side have won five of their last seven home games this season. More goals scored, fewer conceded and a positive goal difference (+5) round off the good home record. 1899 have lost only one home game against their upcoming opponents since 2014.
Nevertheless, betting on a home win in the Hoffenheim vs. Hertha clash carries a certain risk, as Hoeneß’ team has so far struggled against opponents who give the ball to their opponents and primarily concentrate on defending. A 0:0 in Bielefeld, a 0:2 home defeat against Mainz or the narrow cup victory in the first main round against Viktoria Köln are fitting examples that sometimes cause us to consider an alternative bet.
Despite a generally potent offence, we would therefore not be surprised in the third match within eight days if the 3.5 goal mark is not broken this time. Andrej Kramaric, however, will definitely resist a game without many goals. The Croatian has already scored eight times against the “old lady”, more than against any other Bundesliga team. In the last three direct duels, the attacker, who recently appeared mainly as a provider of assists, scored four goals. Changes in the starting eleven are possible due to rotation. Bicakcic, Hübner, Bogarde, Kaderabek and John are still not available due to injury.
Predicted line-up of Hoffenheim:
Baumann – Posch, Grillitsch, C. Richards – Akpoguma, Raum – Geiger, Samassekou – Kramaric – Bebou, Rutter
Last matches played by Hoffenheim:
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Hoffenheim 5 – 1 Holstein Kiel
1st Bundesliga
10/23 2021 – Bayern Munich 4 – 0 Hoffenheim
10/15 2021 – Hoffenheim 5 – 0 1. FC Köln
10/02 2021 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 1 Hoffenheim
09/25 2021 – Hoffenheim 3 – 1 Vfl Wolfsburg
Hertha – Statistics & current form
In fact, it is extremely difficult at the moment to assess which face the “Big City Club” from the capital is showing matchday after matchday. Weak performances like the 0:6 in Leipzig or the 1:2 home defeat against Freiburg alternate with promising performances at regular intervals.
Recently, however, the form curve has definitely been pointing upwards. Thanks to the victories in Frankfurt (2:1), at home against Gladbach (1:0) and in the DFB Cup against Preußen Münster, where the “old lady” had massive problems against a regional league team that fought bravely in an outnumbered team, something like calm has returned. Pal Dardai, who has been criticised for weeks, can breathe easy for the time being, but is determined to confirm the upward trend on Friday evening
Pal Dardai and his lousy record at TSG Hoffenheim
However, looking at his personal statistics against their upcoming opponents, it is fair to question whether the Berliners can make it three Bundesliga wins in a row for the first time since October 2019. In his six trips to Sinsheim, the Hungarian has brought home just a single point so far. Considering that the ambitious tenth-placed side only have higher odds of defeat against FC Bayern than against 1899, the odds on a three-goal win for the visitors between Hoffenheim and Hertha are anything but attractive.
Hope comes from the now more stable defence. If you exclude the blackout in the aforementioned 6-0 home defeat against RB Leipzig, they have conceded “only” five goals in the past five Bundesliga matches. By way of comparison, ten goals were conceded in the first three matchdays alone.
This means that in the Hoffenheim vs. Hertha clash, the prediction of a maximum of three goals in the course of the match can be made with a clear conscience, especially as we expect a somewhat quieter opening phase due to the intense cup matches during the week. Boateng, Klünter and Torunarigha are missing due to injury. There will also be rotation for the capital club.
Predicted line-up of Hertha:
Schwolow – Pekarik, Boyata, Stark, Plattenhardt – Ascacibar – M. Richter, Darida, S. Serdar, Mittelstädt – Piatek
Last matches played by Hertha:
DFB Cup
10/26 2021 – Preußen Münster 1 – 3 Hertha Berlin
1st Bundesliga
10/23 2021 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
10/16 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 1 – 2 Hertha Berlin
10/02 2021 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 2 SC Freiburg
09/25 2021 – RB Leipzig 6 – 0 Hertha Berlin
Hoffenheim – Hertha Direct comparison / H2H balance
Hoffenheim have won exactly half of their 22 Bundesliga encounters so far. At home, their record stands at six wins, two draws and three defeats in eleven home games. But: Only one of the last seven matches in Sinsheim was lost by 1899. In return, there have been five full victories in the same period! In general, the record of seven wins, three draws and only one defeat in the past eleven direct encounters is clearly in favour of the hosts of Friday night’s match.
Hoffenheim – Hertha Tip
Both TSG Hoffenheim and Berlin Hertha have their next competitive match on the agenda on Friday evening after less than 72 hours of regeneration. For both teams it is the third within a week. On the one hand, this heavy workload could lead to an increase in the number of individual lapses in concentration; on the other hand, however, it also seems possible that the teams will want to take it easy for the time being, minimise risk and avoid falling behind.
We are more inclined to the second option on Friday evening and are therefore convinced that the betting odds on the under 3.5 between Hoffenheim and Hertha are of interest. The corresponding odds can additionally be pushed with double chance 1X, as we do not believe in an away win – especially due to TSG’s history and good home performances.
In the match of TSG Hoffenheim against Hertha, the combined tip on 1X & Under 3.5 is therefore our first choice.
