Will TSG make Hütter’s barrel overflow?
The air is getting thinner for Adi Hütter at Borussia Mönchengladbach. Some pundits already assumed that the Austrian would no longer be on the bench for Saturday’s away game at TSG Hoffenheim, but at least sporting director Max Eberl spared his coach the ignominy of being sacked after a defeat at former club Eintracht Frankfurt. Whether Hütter nevertheless has a future on the Lower Rhine can be highly doubted in view of recent performances.
While the Foals are extremely unsettled and without any self-confidence going into this last Bundesliga match of the year, the mood at home could hardly be better. 13 points from the past five games currently give TSG hope of a return to Europe. Due to the contrasting form curves of both teams, the lower odds on a home win between Hoffenheim and Gladbach are absolutely understandable.
In addition, there is the remarkable home strength of the Kraichgauer, who have recently won five times in a row in their own stadium. The first tendency in this match therefore clearly goes in the direction of a Hoffenheim vs Gladbach prediction on the success of the home side. But watch out: Everyone knows the saying of the staggering boxer and maybe the guests from the Rhineland can identify with this role.
Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form
TSG Hoffenheim are playing a fantastic season so far. After 16 matchdays, they already have 27 points, more than they have had since 2016/17. Only once before – in 2008/09, when Demba Ba, Luiz Gustavo and Carlos Eduardo sensationally led the Sinsheim side to the autumn championship – did the Kraichgau side have more wins to their name than they currently do (eight).
Especially in the last few weeks, the Blue and Whites have been racing through the Bundesliga without any consideration for losses. They have picked up an impressive 13 points from their last five games – no other club has scored better since matchday 12 than TSG, who overturned a 2-0 deficit at Leverkusen during the week to salvage a 2-2 draw and maintain fourth place in the interim rankings.
Sixth TSG home win in a row?
In addition to their very good form and enormous self-confidence, the Kraichgauer’s home strength also speaks for itself on Saturday afternoon. 1899 have won all of their last five home games. Keeper Oliver Baumann has not conceded a goal in three of these five victories. Only in the 3:2 win against Frankfurt, who were also in good form, could the Sinsheim side not put at least a two-goal difference between themselves and their opponents.
Another plus point that prompts us to place a bet on the Hoenheim eleven this weekend between Hoffenheim and Gladbach are the many last-minute goals that Kramaric and Co. have already scored this season. Eleven goals in the final quarter of the hour already mean the league-wide top value here as well. The last three goals in the Bundesliga alone were all scored between minute 76 and the end. This staying power could prove valuable in that the visitors from the Lower Rhine have conceded nine goals in the last 15 minutes of a match – only Greuther Fürth conceded more.
With the exception of Skov, John, Bicakcic and Bruun Larsen, who have been injured for a long time anyway, Coach Hoeneß has all players available. Changes due to rotation are quite conceivable, especially since three substitutes, Stiller, Rutter and Dabbur, provided the turnaround in Leverkusen on Wednesday. Kaderabek and Geiger are also options for the squad again.
Predicted line-up of Hoffenheim:
Baumann – C. Richards, Grillitsch, Vogt – Kaderabek, Raum – Samassekou, Geiger – Baumgartner – Bebou, Kramaric
Last matches played by Hoffenheim:
1st Bundesliga
12/15 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 2 Hoffenheim
12/11 2021 – SC Freiburg 1 – 2 Hoffenheim
12/04 2021 – Hoffenheim 3 – 2 Eintracht Frankfurt
11/27 2021 – Greuther Fürth 3 – 6 Hoffenheim
11/20 2021 – Hoffenheim 2 – 0 RB Leipzig
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
Without a doubt, Borussia from Mönchengladbach is one of the disappointments of the current season so far. After 16 matchdays, the team from the Lower Rhine region has just 18 points. The lead over the relegation play-off places is just one point, and the gap to the European places has already grown to six points – all this despite the fact that the ambitious Borussians do not have to deal with a multiple burden this season.
Accordingly, it is hardly surprising that the odds between Hoffenheim and Gladbach are pointing towards a home win. In our opinion, the odds on TSG are still too high, especially since Adi Hütter’s team, which has come in for a lot of criticism, has been disastrous defensively of late.
Another open day in Gladbach’s defence?
17 goals conceded in the last four games is a catastrophic figure, especially in view of the fact that they “only” conceded 14 goals in the first twelve match days. 1:4 in Cologne, 0:6 against Freiburg, 1:4 in Leipzig and finally the bitter 2:3 last week against Frankfurt – these were the most recent results of the 13th-placed team, which has the most vulnerable defensive line in the top flight behind Hertha and bottom-placed Fürth.
In order to pay tribute to this almost unbelievable defensive weakness in terms of betting, it is just as conceivable to make a prediction in the Hoffenheim vs Gladbach clash that the home side will score in both halves.
The personnel situation must also be taken into account. With Beyer, Koné and Hofmann, three players who all played very important roles under Hütter are out. Whether Nico Elbedi is at 100% after a stomach bug will have to be seen. Otherwise, the Austrian coach will have to improvise and call up Zakaria or Bensebaini, for example, in the defensive back three. At least captain Lars Stindl returns after a yellow ban.
Predicted line-up of Gladbach:
Sommer – Ginter, Zakaria, Bensebaini – Scally, Kramer, Benes, Netz – Neuhaus, Stindl – Embolo
Last games played by Gladbach:
1st Bundesliga
12/15 2021 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 – 3 Eintracht Frankfurt
12/11 2021 – RB Leipzig 4 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
12/05 2021 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 – 6 SC Freiburg
11/27 2021 – 1. FC Köln 4 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
11/20 2021 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 – 0 Greuther Fürth
Hoffenheim – Gladbach Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
These two clubs will be delivering their 27th meeting in the Bundesliga on Saturday. With nine wins compared to seven defeats and ten draws, TSG actually have the edge in the direct comparison. The Kraichgauer also remained unbeaten against the Rhinelanders in their most recent three encounters. In 2020/21, the Blue-Whites even won the first and second legs against Borussia.
Nevertheless, the Sinsheimers have conceded 23 goals against the Foals in 13 home games, more than against any other club in the German top flight. The Gladbachers have scored three or more goals five times. A goal-filled spectacle therefore does not seem to be a utopia on Saturday either.
Hoffenheim – Gladbach Tip
Will Adi Hütter play his last game as Gladbach coach this weekend? This scenario certainly cannot be ruled out, after all Borussia have been guilty of a lot in recent weeks. The negative highlight of the persistent drop in form was the last four games, in which a total of 17 goals were conceded. Although there were signs of a revival against Eintracht, the end result was the fourth defeat in a row after the 2:3.
Not least because of this, we are clearly convinced that the most promising value is hidden in the betting odds on a home win between Hoffenheim and Gladbach. The Kraichgauer have recently won five times in a row at home and have also collected the most points in a league comparison since matchday twelve (13). The late comeback draw in Leverkusen has also provided additional self-confidence.
We are therefore betting on a home win in the Hoffenheim vs Gladbach clash and also argue that TSG already won both matches against the Foals last year and even have a positive overall record against the team from the Lower Rhine.
Alternative tips are, as already mentioned, the over 2.5 or Hoffenheim scoring in both halves. Especially the former option can be included in a combined bet without hesitation, especially since Gladbach have scored very often in Sinsheim in the past and the Over 2.5 would have come true in four of the last five encounters.
