Two cup losers are hoping for redemption
The round of 16 matches in the DFB Cup could not have gone worse for TSG Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg during the week. The Sport-Club from the Breisgau region of Germany were beaten 1-3 by third division side Bielefeld after a weak performance, while the Kraichgauer once again showed their ugliest face in the 3-0 defeat in Wolfsburg.
The most popular bookmakers are finding it difficult to name a favorite for the direct duel. Currently, however, the forecast for the guest between Hoffenheim and Freiburg is even quoted at a slightly lower rate, which can primarily be explained by the table situation. The Sinsheim-based team, in 14th place, continue to lag well behind their own expectations, while the Black Forest team, in sixth place, are right on target.
It will also be exciting to see whether the home side, under new coach Christian Ilzer, will put on a fireworks display in their second home game, as they did in their 4-3 triumph over RB Leipzig two weeks ago. Because reactions from both clubs are to be expected and both teams have offensive potential, the odds on over-goals should be considered between Hoffenheim and Freiburg.
Hoffenheim vs. Freiburg prognosis AI
The xG values of 1.38 and 1.58 underline this. However, the most attractive value is hidden in the Hoffenheim vs. Freiburg AI prognosis for the away win. BETSiE sees a 44% probability of victory for the sports club. The fair odds are therefore 2.37. However, a 2.62 is being offered at Bet365, which therefore brings value.
Hoffenheim – statistics & current form
Has the change of coach already fizzled out again? This is the question that Christian Ilzer at TSG Hoffenheim is currently having to deal with. The Austrian champion coach, who was bought out of an ongoing contract with Sturm Graz, initially started with an impressive 4-3 home Bundesliga win over RB Leipzig, but then had to watch his new team suffer three defeats. In Braga, in Mainz and on Wednesday evening in the DFB Cup against VfL Wolfsburg, the Kraichgauer not only went three times without scoring, but also conceded a total of eight goals.
TSG Hoffenheim’s home games are usually offensive festivals
The fact that the blue and whites are finally allowed to play at home again after three consecutive away games on Sunday evening gives hope for a positive result. TSG has collected nine of the previous twelve points at home in the current Bundesliga season. As a rule, the home games of the Sinsheim team were full of excitement.
30 (!) goals were scored in six TSG home games. The average of five goals per home game is by far the highest in the league. Since a bet on Over 2.5 would have been successful in five out of six cases, I think it is definitely interesting to put the betting odds of at least three goals in the game on the betting slip between Hoffenheim and Freiburg.
This is supported not least by the fact that the blue and whites have not been able to keep a clean sheet in 26 (!) Bundesliga home matches. I don’t believe in a clean sheet on Sunday afternoon again. Instead, I assume that the home side will need at least two goals of their own to get at least a point.
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
Until Tuesday evening, the management at SC Freiburg could be absolutely satisfied with the performances of their team and the coaching of Julian Schuster. In the round of 16 of the DFB Cup, however, the positive interim result suffered a significant setback. The team lost 1:3 against third division team Bielefeld and thus missed out on the planned quarter-final spot. Coach Schuster also had to face criticism afterwards, as he left key players Grifo and Lienhart on the bench and may have taken the task at the Alm a little too lightly.
Freiburg has set its sights on a Champions League place
In the fast-paced world of football, however, it is advantageous that only a few days after a bitter disappointment, there is another opportunity to get revenge and turn your own mood around. The prerequisite for this is that a prediction on Sunday afternoon between Hoffenheim and Freiburg pays off with a point win for the Black Foresters. This undertaking does not seem hopeless at all, especially since the Breisgauer have only lost one of the last eleven competitive games against their opponents from Sinsheim.
It should also be emphasized that Freiburg were able to end a run of four games without a win last weekend with a 3-1 home win over Borussia Mönchengladbach. Six wins and 20 points after twelve match days are still a satisfactory haul, which should give the sports club a sense of confidence going into the game in Sinsheim.
If you believe in the third away win for Freiburg in their seventh Bundesliga away game this season, you can get 2.62 as the highest odds at Bet365. For those particularly risk-averse tipsters, the Betano app even offers odds of around 4.00 for a Freiburg goal against the run at Hoffenheim. I see value here too. Especially if Grifo, Höler and Co. want to build on their performance from the previous week in the absence of center forward Adamu and make up for the embarrassing defeat in the DFB Cup with a vengeance.
Hoffenheim – Freiburg Head to head / H2H record
28 encounters have taken place so far between TSG Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. With eleven wins, eleven draws and only six defeats, the Sport-Club leads the direct comparison quite clearly. In the last five Bundesliga games, the Kraichgauer were only able to score a single point. Their last Bundesliga home win was in September 2018. Also interesting: in nine of the last twelve duels in the top flight, a bet on Over 2.5 would have been successful.
Hoffenheim – Freiburg betting tip
The 13th matchday in the Bundesliga will be concluded by two cup losers on Sunday afternoon. After sobering performances during the week, Hoffenheim and Freiburg are definitely out for redemption. We think the guests from Freiburg have the slightly better chances. On the one hand, because Schuster’s team has had a much better Bundesliga season so far. On the other hand, the home side’s defensive vulnerability, who have conceded almost three goals on average in four competitive games under Christian Ilzer.
However, since it is too tricky for me to place the main bet on the three-way market, I recommend betting on at least three goals in the game between Hoffenheim and Freiburg instead. This assessment is supported by the fact that an average of five goals are scored per home game in Sinsheim. The odds of 1.70 also look very interesting, so I dare to bet six units.
