Who will take the big points in the relegation battle?
The relegation battle of the 31st matchday will undoubtedly take place at Berlin’s Olympiastadion this weekend. The clash between Hertha and VfB Stuttgart starts at 17:30. According to the odds, even the guests from Swabia are considered favourites. Currently, the top odds offered are 2.45 on an away win. For a home win, however, the payout is more than three times the stake in the event of success.
The fact that the bookmakers actually see the advantage in favour of VfB is probably primarily due to the fact that no other team from the lower third of the table has been able to record more points than the Matarazzo eleven since matchday 26. In this period, only one of the six Bundesliga games played was lost. Nevertheless, the Swabians are still only in the relegation zone, but could climb above the line with a win on Sunday.
For the “old lady”, the home match late on Sunday afternoon naturally also has immense significance. After all, should a prediction of a home win between Hertha and VfB Stuttgart pay off, the lead over their direct rivals could grow to four points with three games then remaining. Only Felix Magath’s recent performances in front of the home crowd are a thorn in his side ahead of the clash with his old love.
Hertha – statistics & current form
Purely in terms of results, it is extremely difficult to assess whether the Berliners have actually made a leap forward under the management of Felix Magath. In four matches after the coaching change from Korkut to the multiple champion coach, the capital club did pick up two wins and thus six points, but also lost the other two matches.
Hertha’s football has not become significantly more attractive. On the other hand, Serdar, Boateng and Co. are convincing with their unusual willingness to run and their enormous commitment. On average, the Berliners march 118 kilometres. Only Union Berlin can point to a similar value. There are certainly worse qualities in the relegation fight.
Can Hertha withstand the pressure in front of their home crowd?
Nevertheless, it should not be neglected that the “Big City Club” has rarely been able to score in front of a home crowd lately. In the past seven home games at the Olympiastadion, only one win was recorded (3:0 vs. Hoffenheim).
The last match at home so far ended with a 1:4 defeat against Union, followed by a 1:4 defeat against a far from confident Frankfurt and a 1:6 defeat against RB Leipzig. Over the entire season, only three first division teams have collected fewer points at home than the BSC team. The 31 goals conceded in 15 games, i.e. an average of more than two goals per match, is even the weakest value in a league comparison.
Some players are out
With this in mind, we are far from giving a tip on the home win on Sunday evening between Hertha and VfB Stuttgart. The fact that the “old lady” has managed to win four of the last five Bundesliga games against their upcoming opponents at the Olympiastadion does not change that.
Another complicating factor is that coach Magath will have to do without several important players. Jarstein, Jovetic, Maolida, Klünter, Lee and Schwolow are all missing due to injury. Richter has to watch due to a yellow suspension. Magath, who is about to play his 500th Bundesliga game as a coach, will be hoping all the more for the leadership qualities of Kevin Prince Boateng, who recently won 86% of his 14 duels in the 1-0 win over Augsburg.
Predicted line-up of Hertha:
Lotka – Pekarik, Boyata, Kempf, Plattenhardt – Ascacibar, Tousart – S. Serdar, K.-P. Boateng, Mittelstädt – Selke
Last matches played by Hertha:
Bundesliga
24/04/2022 – Hertha BSC 2 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
16/04/2022 – Augsburg 0 – 1 Hertha BSC
09/04/2022 – Hertha BSC 1 – 4 Union Berlin
02/04/2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 1 Hertha BSC
19/03/2022 – Hertha BSC 3 – 0 Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & current form
VfB Stuttgart are actually playing like no typical relegated team. The Swabians are intent on having a lot of possession, cornering their opponents with quick passes and also rely on an extremely young team that has already had to pay a lesson or two in the tough fight to stay in the relegation zone. In particular, the fact that the current 16th-placed team has repeatedly failed to reward its efforts despite good performances has a lasting effect.
However, if we look at the past six matches, VfB can be said to be in decent form. Only in the 0:2 defeat at home against Borussia Dortmund did Stuttgart lose out. There have also been two wins and three draws. Nine points out of a possible 18 is, as already mentioned, the best yield of all teams caught in the lower third of the table.
Stuttgart want to end the away curse
In light of these promising performances, it is quite understandable that lower odds are being offered on the away win between Hertha and VfB Stuttgart this weekend. Only the eight-match winning streak away from home is causing headaches and is one of the reasons why betting on a three-goal win for the visitors is in third place rather than first in our Top 3 picks.
However, because we see the footballing advantages on the side of the Swabians and are convinced that Matarazzo’s team has a clear bargaining chip in the form of the tried and tested combination of Sosa and Kalajdzic, we think a prediction on the double chance X2 in Hertha’s clash against VfB Stuttgart is very interesting. Considering that the Berliners have already conceded 15 headers this season, VfB’s strength in this category could ultimately decide who wins this relegation thriller.
Ahamada, Nartey, Sankoh and Silas Wamangituka will not be available due to injury. Although Endo, Mangala, Ito and Karazor also had to recover from various aches and pains or illnesses during the week, it can be assumed that the coach will be able to draw on a full complement of players and field his current best eleven. Especially in this important phase of the season, this circumstance cannot be overestimated.
Predicted line-up of VfB Stuttgart:
F. Müller – P. Stenzel, Mavropanos, Anton, Sosa – Karazor – W. Endo, Führich – Tiago Tomas, Marmoush – Kalajdzic
Last matches played by VfB Stuttgart:
Bundesliga
24/04/2022 – Hertha BSC 2 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
16/04/2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
09/04/2022 – VfB Stuttgart 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
02/04/2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
19/03/2022 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 2 Augsburg
Hertha – VfB Stuttgart Direct comparison / H2H-balance
For exactly the 70th time, the two clubs will face each other on Sunday afternoon in Germany’s top football league. With 26 wins compared to 25 defeats, Hertha lead the direct comparison by a narrow margin. The Berliners have also won four of the past five home matches. On average, Stuttgart have only managed 0.74 points in the capital. The failure rate is also extremely high at 62%.
Hertha – VfB Stuttgart Tip
Historically, Hertha loves to play against VfB Stuttgart. This Sunday, however, it’s the present that counts and we see the visitors from Swabia as the favourites, and rightly so. This assessment is based above all on the performances shown in recent weeks and the existing pressure situation for the home side, who were still pressured into taking off their own jerseys in the last home game against Union Berlin (1:4).
The atmosphere in the Olympiastadion can therefore quickly change again this weekend, which could play into the cards of the young Matarazzo eleven. Not least because of this, we agree with the betting providers and can understand why the betting odds between Hertha and VfB Stuttgart are swinging in the direction of the 16th-placed team in the table.
