Big City Clubs in direct duel
Although Tayfun Korkut has only been in charge for a few weeks and has a passable record with seven points from his first four games as Hertha coach, sporting director Fredi Bobic will be keeping a very close eye on the old lady’s development over the next few months.
The reason is obvious and goes by the name of Niko Kovac. The German-Croatian, who enjoyed a successful time in the capital as a player and also knows Bobic from their days together at Eintracht, was last sacked at Monaco and is already being talked about as a potential successor.
So it’s up to Korkut alone to create arguments that will secure his job. He can start this next Sunday, when the odds are expecting a very competitive and even match between Hertha and Cologne. The Rhinelanders have remained unbeaten in their four most recent direct encounters against the Berliners. In addition, Baumgart’s team is also further ahead in the standings.
Hertha – Statistics & current form
Hertha from Berlin have had a disappointing first half of the season. Once again, they started with great goals and ambitions, but are currently only in eleventh place in the interim rankings. They are six points behind the European Cup places and only four points ahead of the relegation zone. The situation in the capital remains precarious, even if recent performances before the winter break give hope for a carefree rest of the season.
Excluding the 4-0 defeat at FSV Mainz on matchday 16, new coach Tayfun Korkut, who succeeded the dismissed Pal Dardai, remained unbeaten in the other three games with the Berliners. The highlight was certainly the not even undeserved 3:2 home victory a few days before Christmas against the reigning cup winners from Dortmund. If the capital city side can build on this performance on Sunday, a home draw between Hertha and Cologne can by no means be ruled out.
Will Hertha stabilise their own defence?
Statistically, however, there is not much to be said for the old lady, especially as it is now more than three years since Hertha won three consecutive home games in the Bundesliga. After the successes against BVB and Bielefeld, Sunday might be the right time to break the spell.
In general, the coaching team’s top priority must be to get a grip on the defence in the 2022 calendar year. Only the bottom-placed team from Fürth has conceded more goals than the Berliners. They have already scored 35 times in their own goal. In ten of 17 games, the Blue and Whites have conceded two or more goals. However, Marco Richter and Co. have only failed to score in five of those games. It is therefore of interest to take a look at the odds on both sides scoring before Hertha’s clash against Cologne.
The task will be made more difficult on Sunday afternoon by the slowly worsening personnel situation. Ascacibar, Björkan, Jarstein, Boyata, Gechter, Tousart and Zeefuik have either tested positive or are only in rehabilitation training after an infection. So Korkut doesn’t have many options. But maybe he doesn’t need them, because Marco Richter is available, who has already scored a season’s worth of goals and thus equalled his personal record after the first half of the season.
Predicted line-up of Hertha:
Schwolow – Pekarik, Stark, Torunarigha, Mittelstädt – Darida, S. Serdar – M. Richter, Ekkelenkamp – Belfodil, Maolida
Last matches played by Hertha:
1st Bundesliga
12/18 2021 – Hertha Berlin 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
12/14 2021 – Mainz 05 4 – 0 Hertha Berlin
12/11 2021 – Hertha Berlin 2 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
12/05 2021 – VfB Stuttgart 2 – 2 Hertha Berlin
11/27 2021 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 1 Augsburg
Cologne – Statistics & current form
Similar to the steadily improving Old Lady, the winter break perhaps came a little too early for 1. FC Köln. In the last games of the calendar year, the team of coach Steffen Baumgart was able to make a real splash. Thanks to victories in Wolfsburg (3:2) and at home against VfB Stuttgart (1:0), the Cologne team spent the winter in a respectable eighth place, only two points behind the European and Conference League places.
In the past few years, Cologne’s football was not very aesthetic, but under the new coach, things have changed completely. Full-throttle offensive football is Baumgart’s motto. The team presses without regard for losses and sometimes even accepts switching situations for the respective opponents. It is therefore no surprise that the games involving the Effzeh are often very high-scoring
Spectacle is almost guaranteed in Cologne games
54 goals were scored in a total of 17 Cologne games. That corresponds to an average of more than three goals per game. The Rhinelanders only conceded one goal in the entire first half of the season. However, they also scored at least one of their own goals in 14 of the aforementioned 17 matches. This means that both teams scored in 13 matches, which is of course one of the most important arguments to justify the prediction of a “both goals” match between Hertha and Cologne.
The Berliners will have to be particularly wary of the headers of the Geißböcke. On the one hand, because no other team scored more headed goals than Baumgart’s eleven. On the other hand, because the old lady has already conceded nine headed goals.
By the way: Anthony Modeste alone has scored eight goals with a header. In total, the Frenchman already has eleven season goals to his name. Only he himself (2016/17 – 13) and a certain Lukas Podolski (2011/12 – 14) had scored more goals in Cologne’s Bundesliga history after 17 match days.
Andersson and Schindler are out due to flu. The all-important stabiliser in midfield, Ellyes Skhiri, is away at the Africa Cup and will therefore also be absent. Baumgart, meanwhile, has decided to continue relying on Marvin Schwäbe in goal. Timo Horn will therefore only have a place on the substitutes’ bench. Rafael Czichos, the head of defence from the first half of the season, will also be absent. The centre-back is looking for a new challenge in the USA with immediate effect.
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
Schwäbe – Schmitz, Kilian, Hübers, Hector – Özcan – Ljubicic, Kainz – Duda – Uth, Modeste
Last matches played by Köln:
1st Bundesliga
12/19 2021 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 0 VfB Stuttgart
12/14 2021 – Vfl Wolfsburg 2 – 3 1. FC Köln
12/10 2021 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 2 Augsburg
12/04 2021 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 1 1. FC Köln
11/27 2021 – 1. FC Köln 4 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hertha – Cologne Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
For four games now Cologne are unbeaten against Hertha. Only against VfL Bochum do the Rhinelanders currently have a longer series of matches not lost. Also impressive: In the two most recent direct duels at the Olympiastadion, the Geißböcke even remained without conceding a goal against the old lady. The last time three consecutive clean sheet away games were played against the same opponents was in 2003, with Baumgart’s side deservedly winning the first leg 3:1.
Hertha – Cologne Tip
The first Sunday match of the new year in the Bundesliga is contested by two big city clubs who have rarely been able to live up to the high expectations in recent years. In the current season, at least the Geißböcke can look back on a promising first half of the season and are currently in eighth place, unexpectedly far ahead. The Berliners, on the other hand, are once again lagging behind their own expectations.
This is possibly one of the reasons why the betting odds between Hertha and Cologne are slightly in favour of the visitors. However, this assessment should be taken with a grain of salt, especially since the old lady won two home games in a row before the winter break and has generally performed quite passably under Korkut so far.
Anyway, we are of the opinion that in the duel of Hertha against Cologne, a bet on both sides to score will yield the more interesting value. On the one hand, of course, because the Berliners have the second weakest defence in the league. On the other hand, however, also due to the fact that the Rhinelanders were mostly involved in games in which both teams scored in the first half of the season. In no less than 13 of 17 games, a bet on the BTS would have paid off.
