Can the capital club break the downward spiral?
Hertha BSC’s slide continues in the 2023 calendar year. The capital city side have lost all four league games after the winter break and have also been waiting 273 minutes for another goal. Now, the Foals are hosting a team with a weak away record at the Olympiastadion, although they did manage to record their first away win of the 2022/23 season at their ninth attempt. Nevertheless, it is very risky to bet on the next Borussia win at Hertha against Gladbach.
Finally, the team from the Lower Rhine also struggled to score goals. Although Gladbach played themselves into a frenzy in the 4:1 away win in Hoffenheim, they have not scored against Augsburg or Schalke in the other two league games among the last three. Accordingly, the forecast for a rather low-scoring game at Hertha against Gladbach is interesting.
The Berliners, who are already five points behind the first non-relegation place with their backs to the wall, urgently need the turnaround. However, the only way back to success is through a more solid defence, for which a change of system, already hinted at in Frankfurt, could be made if necessary. After all, the four defeats in 2023 saw the Old Lady concede a further 13 goals.
In our eyes, the greatest value is provided by betting that a maximum of one team will score in this duel, in which two teams clash that have recently struggled to convert their chances.
Hertha – Statistics & current form
Hertha BSC has been part of the Bundesliga for ten years now. During this turbulent period, a lot has happened at the “Big City Club”, whereby there has not infrequently been a large discrepancy between aspiration and reality.
Despite high investments at times, the Old Lady was not able to become an aspirant for European competition. Instead, the daily routine has always been a fight against relegation right up to the end. Last summer, the Berliners only managed to save themselves in the relegation play-off.
Lost seven of the last eight league games
A new coach, Sandro Schwarz, was installed at the start of the new season with the intention of steering Hertha back into calmer waters and giving him the necessary time to do so, contrary to the sometimes hasty decisions made in recent years. At the moment, however, precisely this plan is crumbling.
Responsible for this is an unprecedented negative series. Even before the World Cup break, the Old Lady had lost three of the last four league games, but still managed to stay just above the line. After four defeats in the four league games in 2023, however, they are now five points off the first non-relegation place. The mood of crisis is correspondingly pronounced.
The second worst home team in the Bundesliga
The capital’s home record is not really convincing, however, as they have picked up only ten points out of a possible 30 at the Olympiastadion – the second-lowest figure in the Bundesliga.
Although none of the last four Bundesliga home games against the Foals was lost (two wins, two draws), the odds for Hertha against Gladbach are slightly in favour of the visitors from the Lower Rhine, which is also due to the Old Lady’s lack of offensive punch. The Berliners have been waiting for a goal for 273 minutes in the Bundesliga.
Last matches of Hertha:
Bundesliga
04/02/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 3 – 0 Hertha BSC
28/01/2023 – Hertha BSC 0 – 2 Union Berlin
25/01/2023 – Hertha BSC 0 – 5 VfL Wolfsburg
21/01/2023 – VfL Bochum 3 – 1 Hertha BSC
Friendly club matches
12/01/2023 – Hertha BSC 2 – 2 Millonarios
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
Borussia Mönchengladbach had certainly imagined the 2022/23 season differently. After only managing tenth place in the final table in the disappointing 2021/22 season under Adi Hütter, Daniel Farke was expected to lead the Foals back to the top third of the table.
However, with 26 points from 19 league games, the team from the Lower Rhine once again only occupies a midfield position. As the ninth-placed team in the current standings, they are already eight points behind sixth place, which would certainly put them in a European competition. In the cup, moreover, the Foals already failed in the 2nd round against second division side Darmstadt 98.
Four out of six possible points from the last two games
The situation was correspondingly tense after the two defeats with which Gladbach initially started 2023, before the Borussians picked up four of six possible points from their last two league games.
In view of the fact that these games were against Hoffenheim and Schalke, two of the weakest teams in the league in terms of form, it was probably two points too few again. Most recently, the attacking punch was missing again in the goalless draw against bottom team Schalke
Only won one of nine Bundesliga away games
Consistently, betting on Hertha to win against Gladbach is anything but a foregone conclusion. Not only did Borussia win only one of their nine Bundesliga away games in the 2022/23 season (four draws, four defeats), but Daniel Farke’s side also failed to score in two of their last three games.
In terms of the xG value (expected goals), the 4.1 of the men from the Niederrhein in the four league games in 2023 is only undercut by two other Bundesliga teams: Bremen (3.7) and today’s opponents Hertha (2.74). This also suggests a low-scoring clash, especially as Julian Weigl, one of the Fohlen’s most reliable passers (88%), is serving a yellow ban in the capital.
Last games of Gladbach:
Bundesliga
05/02/2023 – Gladbach 0 – 0 Schalke 04
28/01/2023 – Hoffenheim 1 – 4 Gladbach
26/01/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Gladbach
22/01/2023 – Gladbach 2 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
Club friendlies
14/01/2023 – Gladbach 0 – 1 St. Pauli
Hertha – Gladbach Direct comparison / H2H-balance
Head to head: 27 – 17 – 30
There have been a total of 74 meetings between the two teams so far and Gladbach lead the direct comparison with 30 wins. The Foals have won two meetings with the Old Lady in a row, but have not won away from home at the Olympiastadion for the last four matches (two draws, two defeats).
Hertha – Gladbach Tip
When it comes to Hertha against Gladbach, the prediction goes slightly in the direction of the visitors, but they haven’t managed to win too much away from home and have failed to score in two of their last three league games. The Berliners have also been waiting for another goal for 273 minutes of play and, having already conceded 13 goals in 2023, it is imperative that they improve their defensive performance again.
Also because the outcome of the match is very unclear, we are betting on a maximum of one team scoring in this duel. Not only have goals not been scored on either side in any of the last three meetings between the two clubs, but the low xG value of both clubs in 2023 clearly shows that creating chances is a shortcoming on both sides.
