Will FCH set the course for staying in the league?

1. FC Heidenheim may not have made it to safety, but at least they avoided direct relegation. Now the Brenzstadters have a great chance to remain in the upper echelons of German soccer. Only one of the last twelve Bundesliga teams has ultimately been relegated in the relegation play-offs – VfB Stuttgart in 2019. The odds are in Heidenheim’s favor against Elversberg, with the Red and Blues looking to stay in the league, although they face an uncomfortable opponent.

The self-proclaimed village club from Saarland has actually managed to jump from ninth to third in the final table thanks to an eight-game unbeaten streak (five wins, three draws). In light of this momentum, it is not entirely unreasonable to predict that Heidenheim will at least put up a good fight against Elversberg, a Bundesliga club that has played internationally this season.

In general, the relegation play-offs between the 16th-placed Bundesliga team and the third-placed 2nd Bundesliga team have mostly been a one-sided affair. In 20 of the 26 relegation play-offs to date, the Bundesliga team has managed to stay up – an experience that 1. FC Heidenheim has already had to go through itself. In 2019/20, the Swabians lost to SV Werder Bremen on the away goals rule after two draws. Playing in front of their home crowd, they now need to set the course to retain their Bundesliga status in Saarland on Monday.

Heidenheim – Statistics & current form

1. FC Heidenheim is facing its second relegation in the club’s history – this time as a Bundesliga club. In 2020, the team from the Ostalb region missed out on promotion against Werder Bremen, despite two draws (0-0 away, 2-2 at home). The away goals rule sealed their fate at the time. Now FCH is fighting to stay in the Bundesliga for the first time – after a season with multiple international commitments, which proved fatal for the upstart club, as it has for many clubs before it.

Things were very tough for long stretches in the Bundesliga, especially as last year’s success also aroused envy and the gap left by goal-scorer Tim Kleindienst could never really be closed. After 22 matchdays, they had only 14 points to show for their efforts. It was only after being knocked out of the Conference League (against FC Copenhagen in the round of 16 playoffs) that the team started to improve. In the remaining twelve games, the Swabians collected 15 points and secured 16th place.

Despite a poor home record, history speaks in Heidenheim’s favor

Coach Frank Schmidt is the face of the club. The 51-year-old has been on the sidelines in Heidenheim for almost 18 years. With 707 competitive games to his name, he is the longest-serving coach in German professional soccer. However, he could now be relegated with his club for the first time, with odds of 1.91 being offered by ODDSET for Heidenheim against Elversberg. The Munich-based betting provider is currently offering a 100% bonus up to $100 with the ODDSET bonus, as well as a $10 free bet.

The history of the relegation play-offs clearly favors the Bundesliga club: in eleven of the last twelve years, the top-flight team has prevailed. Overall, Bundesliga clubs have won 20 of the 26 relegation play-offs – a share of 77 percent. However, it should not be completely ignored that FCH is extremely weak at home. No other Bundesliga club has picked up so few points at home (only eleven) and lost so many home games in 2024/25 (twelve) as the Brenzstadters, whose mere 13 home goals were only surpassed by FC St. Pauli (ten). This is something they will have to work on in the first leg at the Schlossberg.

Elversberg – Statistics & current form

SV Elversberg is facing the biggest game in its history. After finishing third in the 2nd Bundesliga, the club from Saarland is now aiming for promotion to the Bundesliga. It would be the 59th team to make the leap into the top flight of German football. The black and whites would even be the fourth Bundesliga club from the small state of Saarland after Saarbrücken, FC Homburg, and Borussia Neunkirchen. It would be the first time since 1993 that Saarland has had a Bundesliga club.

However, the relegation play-offs are uncharted territory for the self-proclaimed village club. Although SVE has played for promotion to the 3rd division three times in the past, this is the first time it has been in the relegation play-offs between two German professional leagues. The recent development is particularly striking. After the 26th match day, Elversberg was still in ninth place before a remarkable run catapulted Horst Steffen’s team into the top group. The team has been unbeaten since mid-March, winning five and drawing three of its eight games. Most recently, it scored three wins in a row – the form curve is pointing steeply upwards.

Elversberg has the best away defense in the 2nd Bundesliga

The Saarland upstart also benefits from great consistency on the bench. Horst Steffen took over the team in October 2018 in the Regionalliga and led it to the 2nd Bundesliga within a few years. At 56, he is now the second-longest-serving coach in German professional soccer, behind Heidenheim’s Frank Schmidt. However, the statistics offer little hope that the Black and Whites will come away with an away win against Elversheim. In the last 25 relegation matches, the second division team has only managed three wins – all away from home and ultimately meaningless.

Nevertheless, the Saarlanders have a very powerful argument in their favor: their defensive stability. Although Hannover 96 has conceded fewer goals than them in the 34 second division games (37), Heidenheim has conceded just twelve goals away from home, which is the best record in the league by a long way. So if SVE manages to secure a narrow result such as 0-0 or 1-1 at the Ostalb, the surprise team of the 2024/25 season will hold all the cards at the Waldstadion Kaiserlinde next Monday…

Heidenheim – Elversberg Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 1 – 1 – 0

Only in the 2013/14 season were 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Elversberg in the same league. Back then, both teams were still in the third division, with Heidenheim winning the first leg 1–0 in the Ostalb region before the return match in Saarland ended in a 1–1 draw. These results would see the Bundesliga side remain in the top flight of German soccer.

Heidenheim – Elversberg Prediction

At least in the first leg, our prediction for Heidenheim against Elversberg is in favor of the Brenzstadt team. Whether FCH, who are bottom of the Bundesliga home table, can set the course for survival with a home win remains to be seen. At the very least, the Swabians, whose squad is worth around two and a half times that of their guests from Saarland, should be able to avoid a home defeat.

It is interesting to note that SVE has conceded just twelve goals in 17 second division away games – the best record in the league. Although they have won “only” seven away games (seven draws, three defeats), their stable defense should also enable the Saarlanders to put themselves in a good position for the return leg.

The best value here is offered by the combined double chance bet on 1X with under 4.5 goals. The odds for this are 1.60 for Heidenheim against Elversberg, which we are betting on with five units at Betano.