Andalusian neighbourly duel as a relegation battle
Matchday 26 is on the agenda in the Spanish LaLiga this weekend. The final match on Monday evening is a derby, which is also an absolute relegation battle. In Andalusia, it comes to the duel between Granada and Cadiz, in which the home side could get a little breathing space in the fight to stay in the league with a home win.
The home side are currently in 17th position, just above the ominous line, while Cadiz are bottom of the table and, as things stand, will have to go down to LaLiga 2. The two teams are currently separated by four points, so this neighbourly duel will definitely set the tone. According to the current betting odds, Granada is the surprisingly clear favourite against Cadiz. For a home win, the odds are about double, while the visitors will get four times the stake back in the event of a win.
It should not be forgotten that Granada has been inferior in recent weeks and has not won a point in five games. Value is therefore not to be found in a bet on the home side. The match kicks off at the Nuevo Los Carmenes Stadium on Monday evening at 9 p.m.
Granada – Statistics & current form
Diego Martinez defined an era at Granada, guiding the club back to the top flight and achieving two successive single-digit finishes in the table. Differences of opinion brought the success story to an abrupt end and many Granada fans are already wishing for the 41-year-old tactician back.
Compared to the last two years, the team under his successor Robert Moreno is clearly weaker. Compared to last year, Granada currently has nine points less; two years ago, Granada even had a dozen more points after 25 match days than this season.
Five defeats in a row
Head coach Robert Moreno could make a name for himself as the interim coach of the Spanish national team during Luis Enrique’s time out. But already his club engagement at Monaco was disappointing (December 2019 to July 2020) and also in Andalusia it seems to be only a matter of time before he has to pack his suitcase. It is quite possible that the derby against Cadiz is already his last chance, as he has not been able to gather many arguments for staying on as Granada coach lately.
Last weekend, the team slid into a 1:4 debacle at home against the yellow submarine from Villarreal. This was Granada’s fifth league defeat in a row, although they did manage to score again after three goalless games. Before this crisis, the team seemed to have finally internalised the Moreno philosophy and scored six times in a row. The last point in LaLiga came on 8 January against the great FC Barcelona. Since then, defeat after defeat has followed defeat and accordingly, betting on a home win against Granada against Cadiz is not recommended at odds that are clearly too low.
Predicted line-up of Granada:
Luis Maximiano – Neva, Sanchez, Diaz, Quini – Milla, Gonalons, Montoro – Suarez, Molina, Puertas
Last matches played by Granada:
LaLiga
02/19 2022 – Granada 1 – 4 FC Villarreal
02/13 2022 – San Sebastian 2 – 0 Granada
02/06 2022 – Real Madrid 1 – 0 Granada
01/23 2022 – Granada 0 – 2 Osasuna Pamplona
01/20 2022 – Getafe 4 – 2 Granada
Cadiz – Statistics & current form
The long-time successful coach is now also history at local rivals Cadiz. Alvaro Cervera had been in charge of the Yellow-Blue since 2014 and led the club from the third division back to the Spanish top flight. However, a 2-0 away defeat at Osasuna in mid-January sealed his end after 258 competitive games (exactly 100 wins!). Former Valladolid coach Sergio was presented as his successor.
Balanced record after seven games
The 45-year-old has been on the bench seven times so far and currently has a balanced 2-3-2 record. On a positive note, only one of their six LaLiga games has been lost (away to Mallorca). Three draws have left Cadiz a little treading water, but the non-relegation places are gradually coming into sight again for the team from the city of just under 115,000 inhabitants. The momentum is therefore absolutely in favour of the visitors and the high betting odds on a win for the visitors are all the more surprising.
Three wins – all away from home
With 20 points from 25 games, it is understandable that Cadiz are not considered favourites. However, recent performances and results are much stronger than Granada. Another interesting aspect is the fact that all of Cadiz’s victories in the 2021/22 season have come away from home. The Nuevo Mirandilla stadium at home is not a good place for the relegation candidates, as they only averaged 0.62 points per game there. Away from home, on the other hand, the average is exactly one point per game.
The momentum and the fact that an away game is definitely an advantage are good arguments that allow a prediction in the direction of the visitors in Granada against Cadiz. An away win seems a little risky, but with the double chance X2 or draw no-bet 2 options, there are interesting alternatives.
Predicted line-up of Cadiz:
Ledesma – Fali, Chust, Hernandez – Espino, San Emeterio, Alcaraz, Akapo – Lozano – Perez, Negredo
Last matches played by Cadiz:
LaLiga
02/19 2022 – Cadiz 1 – 1 Getafe
02/12 2022 – Cadiz 0 – 0 Celta Vigo
02/05 2022 – Mallorca 2 – 1 Cadiz
Copa del Rey
02/02 2022 – Valencia 2 – 1 Cadiz
LaLiga
01/22 2022 – Levante 0 – 2 Cadiz
Granada – Cadiz Direct comparison / H2H balance
For the 40th time, this Andalusian derby will go down on Monday night. Particularly striking when looking at the direct statistics are the very few away victories. In 39 games, the visitors have only managed to return home with a win six times (four times Cadiz, two times Granada).
One of those four away wins came last season, when Cadiz won 1-0 at Granada. In general, Cadiz are still without defeat against their local rivals in the Spanish top flight after three games. Indeed, the two home games ended in a 1-1 draw, with Granada not equalising until minute 88 in the first leg this season.
Granada – Cadiz Tip
A neighbourly duel always has a lot of explosiveness to offer anyway, but when it is also about remaining in the league, the playing aspect is hardly likely to come first. The conclusion of the current LaLiga matchday will be accompanied by a lot of fight and cramp.
The pressure on the shoulders of both teams is enormous, because Granada would be right in the middle of the relegation battle with a sixth defeat en suite. But the visitors also have their backs to the wall, because a defeat for them would mean that a direct competitor could pull a good distance away. So excitement is definitely on the cards.
Qualitatively, there is not much difference between the two teams, but due to the recent results and performances, a prediction in the direction of the visitors is associated with great value in the case of Granada against Cadiz.
The bookmakers’ assessment is not entirely comprehensible. Granada is certainly stronger at home than away, but after five defeats in a row, the odds for a home win are clearly too low. Cadiz have also won all three of their matches away from home this season, so a moderate bet on the draw-no-bet 2 for Granada against Cadiz is recommended. Here, too, more than triple the stakes is tempting.
