A conciliatory end to the year for the champions?
Before the Spanish La Liga goes into a short Christmas break, there are still some catch-up games on the agenda during the week. Among others, the reigning champions Atletico Madrid are challenged in Granada. After three league defeats in a row, the aim for coach Diego Simeone’s team is to end the year 2021 with a sense of achievement and thus maintain the connection to the top.
The away task in the south of the country will not be a foregone conclusion, however, because the Andalusians, who started poorly, have also been in much better form recently, remaining unbeaten four times in a row and picking up a solid eight points in that period. However, with the 15th-placed team in the standings facing the fifth-placed team, the odds between Granada and Atletico Madrid are clearly in the Colchoneros’ favour.
Although a surprise cannot be ruled out in view of the recent form curves, the prediction of at least three goals in the course of the match promises interesting value in the clash between Granada and Atletico Madrid. On the one hand, the Nazaríes have been quite consistent offensively in recent weeks, on the other hand, the former defensive bulwark from the capital has long since ceased to impress with a particularly compact defence. Goals are therefore to be expected on Wednesday evening
Granada – Statistics & current form
Granada had to wait until matchday eight before they could celebrate their first La Liga win in 2021/22. However, because four games had already been lost by then, coach Robert Moreno’s team found themselves in the bottom segment of the table from the start. Only in the last few weeks have the red and whites been on the right track to free themselves from the dangerous zone.
In a review of the past ten games, there have only been two defeats. On the other hand, there have been four victories and just as many draws. The Nazaríes have not lost any of their last four matches in La Liga. They also won their dress rehearsal for the clash with the reigning champions at the weekend. Granada won 4-1 after 90 one-sided minutes against the island club RCD Mallorca.
Granada on the rise
The surprise quarter-finalists from the last Europa League season (out against Manchester United) have moved up to 15th position in the table. If the home win between Granada and Atletico Madrid proves to be true, a peaceful Christmas in eleventh place is possible. In this context, the much-improved offensive in particular gives cause for hope.
El Graná” has scored at least one goal in nine of the last ten La Liga games. In three of the last four matches, they even scored two or more goals of their own. In as many as five of the ten cases mentioned, a bet on the over 2.5 would have paid off. In 70% of these matches, both teams scored. Consequently, both betting markets, i.e. the Over 2.5, as well as the “Both teams to score”, are serious alternatives for a value bet on Wednesday evening.
The 39-year-old Jorge Molina, who scored a treble in the aforementioned 4-1 win over Mallorca at the weekend, plays an extremely large part in the best attack in the lower half of the table and leads the internal goalscoring list with six goals. Together with his 15-year younger partner Luis Suarez, he will also be on the hunt for goals against the Colchoneros. Coach Moreno will only be without the injured Ruben Rochina.
Predicted line-up of Granada:
Maximiano; Quini, Sanchez, Torrente, Neva; Puertas, Milla, Gonalons, Machis; Suarez, Molina
Last matches played by Granada:
LaLiga
12/19 2021 – Granada 4 – 1 Mallorca
Copa del Rey
12/16 2021 – Atletico Mancha Real 1 – 0 Granada
LaLiga
12/13 2021 – Cadiz 1 – 1 Granada
12/03 2021 – Granada 2 – 1 Deportivo Alaves
Copa del Rey
11/30 2021 – Laguna 0 – 7 Granada
Atletico Madrid – Statistics & current form
At present, Atletico Madrid officials would also love to claim that the trend is heading in the right direction. However, that is not the case. The reigning Spanish title holders have lost all of their most recent three league games and thus also lost the last spark of hope for a successful title defence. Even in the event of a win during the week, the gap to city rivals Real Madrid is already a whopping eleven points.
The disappointing season so far, which has already resulted in five draws and four defeats from 17 league games, is partly due to a surprisingly fragile defence.
Atletico 2021/22 surprisingly vulnerable
While the game against the ball has always been considered the Simeone side’s greatest strength in recent years, Jan Oblak has already had to make 28 saves in 23 competitive La Liga and Champions League games this term. Not even a third of all games played at national level ended with a clean sheet for the defensive fanatics from the Spanish capital. In eleven of 17 league games alone, a bet on the over 2.5 would have paid off.
It is therefore all the more surprising that on Wednesday evening between Granada and Atletico Madrid, the odds on a duel with at least three goals are once again so high.
Meanwhile, if you need an extra argument, take a look at the goal difference in Atletico away games this season. 30 goals have been scored in nine away games, an average of well over three per game. 14 of the 20 goals conceded were away from home. Diego Simeone will still have to do without the injured Griezmann, Vrsaljko and Savic. Marcos Llorente will also be unavailable on Wednesday evening.
Predicted line-up of Atletico Madrid:
Oblak; Felipe, Kondogbia, Hermoso; Trippier, De Paul, Koke, Lemar, Carrasco; Suarez, Felix
Last matches played by Atletico Madrid:
LaLiga
12/18 2021 – Sevilla 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid
12/12 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Atletico Madrid
Champions League Grp. B
12/07 2021 – FC Porto 1 – 3 Atletico Madrid
LaLiga
12/04 2021 – Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Mallorca
11/28 2021 – Cadiz 1 – 4 Atletico Madrid
Granada – Atletico Madrid Direct comparison / H2H record
Granada have only won nine of their 50 meetings in the Spanish top flight. Atletico Madrid, meanwhile, have 31 victories, while only ten encounters have ended in draws. In the previous season, the eventual champions prevailed in the first and second legs. They won 2-1 away from home and 6-1 at home. Interestingly, nine of the ten goals in these two matches came after half-time. Will this trend continue this season?
Granada – Atletico Madrid tip
Atletico Madrid are under pressure in the last match of 2021. After three defeats in a row and a generally disappointing half-season in which the reigning champions failed to live up to their own expectations, they will at least be looking to win the away game in Andalusia.
If we look at the betting odds before the match between Granada and Atletico Madrid, the bookmakers also believe in a success for the Colchoneros, who have already conceded 14 goals away from home. For Simeone’s team, which is usually so strong defensively, this is of course an unusually high figure. In total, 30 goals have been scored in the nine away games, which is far more than the average of three goals per match.
This is one of the reasons why we believe that betting on the over 2.5 between Granada and Atletico Madrid offers promising value. A 2-1 away win is a conceivable end result in our eyes. Because we believe the Nazaríes can score a goal and justify this with their remarkable offensive output in recent weeks, the betting market “Both score” can also be considered.
