Are the Wolves finally sinking into mediocrity?

On the last matchday, VfL Wolfsburg caused a novelty in their own Bundesliga history. For the first time ever, the Wolves started a league match with eleven legionnaires. The Lower Saxons were the first club since Energie Cottbus in the early 2000s not to field a single German in the starting line-up. It was only of limited use, as the home match against SV Werder Bremen ended in a disappointing 2:2 draw

This is the fourth time in a row that Kovac’s side have gone winless in the German top flight. They are determined to end this drought on Friday evening. In the match between Gladbach and Wolfsburg, however, the odds on an away win are quite high, which is partly due to the fact that the Autostadt team have not won any of their last seven competitive matches against the team from the Lower Rhine. The last time VfL beat Borussia Mönchengladbach was in December 2019

The fact that a prediction on the Whites should not be disregarded at the start of the 11th BL matchday in the duel between Gladbach and Wolfsburg is due to the experiences of the previous week. The Foals squandered what they thought was a certain victory in Freiburg in the closing stages and could still have to nibble at this bitter setback six days later. Wolfsburg should also be able to keep Gladbach’s greatest strength at bay to some extent on Friday evening. We are talking about set pieces. No team has conceded fewer goals from set pieces than VfL.

Gladbach – statistics & current form

Borussia Mönchengladbach have turned out to be a big surprise bag so far in the still young Bundesliga season. The foals have shown flashes of their ability time and again, but in most cases only in phases. Even within the 90 minutes, BMG’s style of play is subject to huge fluctuations. The best example is the match from the previous week, when Seoane’s team turned an early 0:1 deficit into a 3:1 lead, but were still only allowed to travel home from Freiburg with a point after conceding two late goals (70th + 96th).

The bottom line is that the Rhinelanders have only managed two wins in the first ten matchdays. With a total of ten points, they are eleventh in the table. However, the gap to the relegation zone is only half as big as the gap to the international ranks. Not since 2010/11 have the former German champions started a Bundesliga season as weakly as they have at the moment. This makes it all the more surprising in our eyes that the Gladbach vs Wolfsburg odds on the three-way market put the home side in the role of favorites

Only two teams have conceded more goals so far

In any case, this assessment cannot be explained by excessive home strength. Of the first five Bundesliga home games, Borussia only won against newly promoted Heidenheim (2:1). Even against Mainz, who were still winless at the time, it was only enough for a sobering 2:2 draw in front of their own fans. At times, the Foals, who are in a state of upheaval, give the impression that only their form on the day will decide whether or not they can score. The newly assembled team is still struggling with resistance during matches. Especially under pressure, which is currently even higher at home, Gladbach still allow themselves too many lapses.

This becomes clear when you look at the catastrophic defensive statistics. 23 goals were conceded in the first ten games. Those responsible around coach Gerardo Seoane and sporting director Roland Virkus are still waiting in vain for a clean sheet. Only Darmstadt, Mainz and Bochum have a more vulnerable defense in the league than the team from the Lower Rhine.

It is therefore hardly surprising that in nine of the ten BL matches involving Gladbach, the bet on over 2.5 would have gone through. For Friday evening’s match between Gladbach and Wolfsburg, however, the odds on at least two goals in the first 45 minutes are even more interesting, especially as the Over 1.5 (1st half) would have been correct in seven out of ten cases.

Predicted Gladbach line-up:

Wolfsburg – Statistics & current form

Until the end of September, VfL Wolfsburg were still at the top of the Bundesliga table. Four wins in the first six matchdays. Since then, however, the form curve has been clearly pointing downwards. Coach Niko Kovac’s team have not won any of their last four league matches. After three defeats in a row against Augsburg, Stuttgart and Leverkusen, they at least managed to pick up a point at home against Werder Bremen at the weekend. However, nobody was really satisfied with the 2-2 draw in the Autostadt.

This is probably due to the fact that the Green-Whites once again recklessly squandered a lead this season. VfL have already conceded eleven points (!) after taking the lead – the highest in the Bundesliga! If you add five to seven points to Lower Saxony’s current points tally, they would be right in the thick of the race for the international places. However, because Wolfsburg are also struggling with a certain inconsistency and fluctuations in performance, they are currently in ninth place, three points ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Who will replace defensive boss Lacroix?

What Kovac’s team is capable of, however, became clear around a week ago in the DFB Cup, when RB Leipzig were defeated 1-0 at home. However, there is some justification for doubting that a top performance is also possible away from home, as the last four away games in the Bundesliga have all been lost. There have not been five BL away defeats in a row since the Magath era in 2011/12.

However, the fact that hardly any other team usually starts matches as well as VfL does gives hope for Friday evening’s visit to Borussia Park. In an isolated table of the first half, the team from Lower Saxony would be in second place behind Bayer Leverkusen. Eleven of the 15 goals scored came before the break, which further supports our Gladbach vs Wolfsburg prediction of at least two goals in the first half.

Coach Kovac will have to change at least one position in his starting XI. Maxence Lacroix was shown a yellow card in the previous week and was sent off for the fourth time since his debut in September 2020. Without the defender, the odds on an away win have risen again, meaning that the value is ultimately more likely to be seen in a win for the visitors in a duel at eye level.

Predicted Wolfsburg line-up:

Gladbach – Wolfsburg head-to-head comparison / H2H result

46 matches between the clubs in Germany’s top flight so far. VfL Wolfsburg lead the direct comparison with 22 wins compared to 14 defeats and ten draws. However, 15 of these 22 victories have come at home. Not only have Wolfsburg not won any of their last four away games at Borussia Park, they have also been winless in seven matches in all competitions. However, four of these seven encounters have ended in a draw

Gladbach – Wolfsburg betting tip

Two mid-table teams open the last Bundesliga matchday before the November international break on Friday evening. Both teams have fallen short of their own expectations so far, although recent impressions suggest that the pendulum is swinging more in Borussia Mönchengladbach’s favor. After all, the Foals have recorded four points from their last two league games, while the visitors from the Autostadt have been waiting four league games without a win. At the very least, the two clubs are linked by their progression to the DFB Cup round of 16.

Because we expect a duel at eye level, in which it may be decisive who starts the game better, we tend to favor the Green-Whites, who have not trailed at the break in any of the ten BL matches and have scored eleven of their 15 goals in the first 45 minutes. Jonas Wind, Vaclav Cerny and Co. are likely to create some good chances against Borussia’s very vulnerable defense

We are therefore trying our luck in the Gladbach v Wolfsburg game with a bet on the away win, which is offered at top odds of 2.80 at Bet365. As we see the odds at around 50:50, these three-way odds promise extremely attractive value. Our stake is five units

Alternatively, the double chance X2 can be combined with the Over 1.5. The team from the Lower Rhine has only managed two wins in the league, but has already conceded 23 goals. It is quite possible that the more experienced Wolves will benefit from the inconsistency of the hosts and leave a foreign stadium with three points after four away defeats in a row