Do the Foals confirm their upward trend?
Bo Svensson once kicked for two clubs in the Bundesliga. The Dane was a member of Borussia Mönchengladbach’s squad from January 2006 to summer 2007, where he played his first 32 first division games. The centre-back then moved to FSV Mainz, where he played more than 100 matches in Germany’s highest and second-highest divisions respectively.
For the now 42-year-old Rheinhessen coach, the encounter between his two (ex-)clubs on Sunday evening at the end of the 28th matchday will certainly be a very special one. However, Svensson will definitely not show any consideration for the interests of his former employer. Instead, the football coach would like to improve his poor away record with the zero-fives. This endeavour does not seem hopeless, as the odds between Gladbach and Mainz are quite close on the three-way market.
However, if you take a look at the last direct duels between these teams, it is even a little surprising that the home side are not slightly more clearly favoured. FSV have won only one of the past eleven encounters against the Foals and conceded seven defeats in the same period. The two successive league victories of the team from the Lower Rhine immediately before the international break can also be cited in advance as an argument for preferring a prediction on the hosts in the Gladbach vs Mainz match.
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are playing a disappointing season on balance. They started the season with great ambitions for the European Cup, but after 27 match days they have only 33 points. Nevertheless, the form curve has been showing an upward trend recently. At home against Hertha and in Bochum, the Foals were able to celebrate two deserved victories, both without conceding a goal, and that without the regular head coach Adi Hütter, who was replaced by his assistant Christian Peintinger due to illness.
The Austrian coach will now return to the bench next Sunday. Although Hütter’s personal record against FSV reads anything but good with only one win from seven Bundesliga games (three draws, three defeats), there are some aspects that suggest a tip towards the home team between Gladbach and Mainz.
Third Bundesliga win for Gladbach in a row?
For example, Borussia’s offence has been in remarkable form of late. In the last four Bundesliga games, two goals were always scored. For the first time this season, the team has scored two or more goals in consecutive matches.
The main reason for this is, among other things, the rise in form of Alassane Plea, who has been involved in six goals in his last four matches (three goals, three assists).
It should also be noted that the Foals are performing better at home than away this season. 21 of their 33 points have come at Borussia Park. Twice as many victories have been achieved at home (six) as away (three). Seven points from the last three home games underline the good form, which is also reflected in four second-round trebles. Only five other teams won more games than Hütter’s eleven in 2022.
Predicted line-up of Gladbach:
Sommer – Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini – Lainer, Koné, Neuhaus, Netz – Plea, Thuram – Embolo
Last matches played by Gladbach:
Bundesliga
03/18 2022 – VfL Bochum 0 – 2 Gladbach
03/12 2022 – Gladbach 2 – 0 Hertha BSC
03/05 2022 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 2 Gladbach
02/26 2022 – Gladbach 2 – 2 VfL Wolfsburg
02/20 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 Gladbach
Mainz – Statistics & current form
What Bo Svensson has done with FSV Mainz 05 since taking charge in early January 2021 deserves the highest praise. The Dane took over the team when it was in a relegation spot, led it in his first season to an ultimately sovereign class preservation and in the current season even into the safe midfield of the table. They are currently in tenth place. They are only seven points off sixth place and still have a game to play in Augsburg next Wednesday.
However, it is fair to say that the Rheinhessen side could be in an even better position in the standings if they were to show their home face more often away from home. FSV are currently in third place in the home table, have celebrated nine (!) wins in 14 home games and also have the best home defence in the Bundesliga with only eight goals conceded.
Mainz remain a welcome guest away from home
In contrast, a look at the record in opposing stadiums is shocking, as only seven of the total 37 points collected have been scored away from home. Only Greuther Fürth is behind the Nullfünfer in the visitors’ table, who have recorded just one point from their most recent seven away games in the Bundesliga and conceded 15 goals. In view of this abysmal away record, it is almost impossible to make a prediction on the tenth-placed team in Gladbach’s match against Mainz.
A further complication is that coach Svensson will have to do without one or two important players. Dominik Kohr is missing due to his fifth yellow card, the coveted central defender St. Juste is still suffering from the consequences of a shoulder operation, winter newcomer Burgzorg is struggling with a heart muscle inflammation and the use of Silvan Widmer, who got a kick in the Swiss national team, is still questionable. Instead, new international Anton Stach returns to the starting eleven after suspension.
Predicted line-up of Mainz:
Zentner – Bell, Hack, Niakhaté – Widmer, Barreiro, Stach, Aaron – Burkardt, J.-S. Lee – Onisiwo
Last matches played by Mainz:
Bundesliga
03/19 2022 – Mainz 05 4 – 0 Arminia Bielefeld
03/16 2022 – Mainz 05 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
02/26 2022 – Union Berlin 3 – 1 Mainz 05
02/18 2022 – Mainz 05 3 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
02/12 2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 Mainz 05
Gladbach – Mainz Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
14 of the 31 Bundesliga meetings so far have been won by Borussia Mönchengladbach. Because the Mainz side has only won eight and drawn nine matches, the Foals are the clear leaders in the direct comparison.
In the recent past, FSV did not have much to gain against the team from the Lower Rhine. Mainz have won only one of their last eleven matches and have not conceded a goal in any of their 15 visits to Borussia Park. The Rheinhessen team has not had such a long negative streak against any other first division team.
Nevertheless, there is a glimmer of hope for the Red and Whites, because last season, under the management of Bo Svensson, the Nullfünfer took all three points from Mönchengladbach. For the first time in their own Bundesliga history, Mainz could thus win twice in a row at the Foals.
Gladbach – Mainz Tip
FSV Mainz 05 is currently ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach in the table. In the “Svensson” table, too, the Rhinelanders continue to have the edge over the Lower Rhinelanders. In 46 games under the Danish coach, Mainz also collected more points than the Foals in the same period.
Nevertheless, we do not see these facts as a reason to bet on a point win for the visitors between Gladbach and Mainz. The zero-fivers have been too weak away from home so far this season. They have only managed a single point from the last seven Bundesliga away games. Only Fürth is still behind the Svensson eleven in the visitors’ table.
This contrasts with a Foals eleven that has won twice in a row in the league recently, has seven points from the last three home games and is generally rated much stronger in front of a home crowd than in opposing stadiums. Moreover, a full house at Borussia Park is possible again on Sunday evening, which should play additional into the host’s cards.
We therefore believe that the most promising value is hidden between Gladbach and Mainz in the betting odds on a home win. The 2.25 at the tested bookmaker Betway is a little too high in our eyes and is therefore worth a confident bet of six units to us.
