Will the Foals win a spectacular Rhine derby?
The Gladbachers are really not to be envied at the moment. First the team from the Lower Rhine played a completely messed-up first half of the season, then sporting director Max Eberl announced that the two key players Zakaria and Ginter would not be renewing their contracts, which expire in the summer, and finally the victory at the start of the second half of the season against the record champions in Munich was played down in the media as if it was almost a foregone conclusion to defeat the industry leader in the Allianz Arena.
The fact that Adi Hütter’s team is currently viewed negatively or in a negative context also offers the chance to pick up exciting betting odds on the Foals in the coming games, including the match between Gladbach and Leverkusen on Saturday evening. Especially in front of a home crowd, we do not necessarily see Borussia as the underdog in the Rhineland duel against the Werkself.
Although Bayer have won the last four direct duels against Mönchengladbach, head coach Gerardo Seoane’s men have been waiting four Bundesliga games for their next win. To make matters worse, the situation is still anything but rosy in terms of personnel. In particular, the substitutions to the national teams participating in the Africa Cup are a cause for concern, so that at first glance the forecast for a home victory between Gladbach and Leverkusen seems quite promising.
Gladbach – Statistics & current form
Was last weekend’s 2-1 away win at FC Bayern the start of a comeback? This question can only be answered reliably in a few weeks, but already after the first impressions from the match at the record champion it seems clear that the team of coach Adi Hütter will not play such a weak half-year again. The individual quality is too great and the squad too deep, which was once again massively strengthened with immediate effect during the week with the addition of Union centre-back Marvin Friedrich in a king’s position.
The winter break obviously came at exactly the right time for the Foals. From the last five matches before Christmas, the team from the Niederrheinland scored only one point and conceded a staggering 17 goals in the course of a four-game losing streak. Coach Hütter was on the verge of being sacked, but saved himself for the match-free period and can now hope for a turnaround.
Gladbach want to go one better at home
Hope for a good result in the Rhineland derby is above all the respectable home record. Four victories are offset by two draws and two defeats in eight home games. Despite the heavy 0:6 home defeat against SC Freiburg, the Foals have a positive goal difference (+1), which also underlines the fact that Stindl, Embolo and Co. usually perform well at Borussia Park.
In the aforementioned 0:6 against Sport-Club from Breisgau, the team from the Niederrhein also failed to score at home for the first and only time this season. 14 goals in the other seven home games correspond to a very respectable average of two goals per game. Coupled with the self-confidence of the Bayern win and the fact that Borussia could be placed much further ahead if they had a slightly better chance conversion (-8 in the comparison of goals scored versus expected goals), we think a bet on a home win between Gladbach and Leverkusen is interesting.
Marvin Friedrich, who was mentioned at the beginning, could immediately slide into the starting eleven. Bensebaini and Hofmann are the only two notable absentees. In any case, coach Hütter has hardly any legitimate reasons to change his starting eleven in many positions. This also means that Neuhaus, Stindl and Embolo should provide danger in the offensive. International Neuhaus in particular has taken the criticism to heart recently and scored four times in the last five Bundesliga games.
Predicted line-up of Gladbach:
Sommer – Ginter, Elvedi, Friedrich – Lainer, Kramer, Koné, Netz – Neuhaus, Stindl – Embolo
Last games of Gladbach:
Friendly club matches
01/08 2022 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 – 3 Viktoria Koeln 1904
1st Bundesliga
01/07 2022 – Bayern Munich 1 – 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach
12/18 2021 – Hoffenheim 1 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
12/15 2021 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 – 3 Eintracht Frankfurt
12/11 2021 – RB Leipzig 4 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Likely a week later, Bayer Leverkusen officials will still be wondering how they failed to win their home game against Union Berlin last weekend. Despite a clear chance advantage and a 1-0 lead, the Rhinelanders had to settle for a 2-2 draw against the effective capital. In the end, Seoane’s team was even lucky that the Eisernen only hit the post in injury time.
Once again, it became clear where the Europa League eighth-finalist’s deficiencies lie: in the defence! No other club in the top half of the table has conceded more goals than Leverkusen, who are in fifth place. The 30 goals conceded are exceeded by only four other teams in the league. In the last four Bundesliga games alone, Bayer have always conceded at least two goals. Not since 1984/85 have Bayer conceded so many goals after 18 match days.
Leverkusen’s starting eleven virtually sets itself up
Under these circumstances, we find it rather daring to make a prediction on the guest between the offensively and home strong Gladbach and Leverkusen. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the Werkself’s two most recent away games were lost in Freiburg (1:2) and in Frankfurt (2:5). Nevertheless, matches with Leverkusen as an away team are usually spectacular. An average of just under four goals was scored in eight matches with the Rhinelanders, so that the over 3.5 is also a possible bet for Saturday evening’s match.
One big problem the Swiss coach is currently facing is the tight personnel situation. With Tapsoba and Kossounou, two centre-backs are away at the Africa Cup, which means that Hincapie, a trained full-back, is once again moving into the centre of defence. Aranguiz, Baumgartlinger, Paulinho and Sinkgraven are also missing. Tah, Demirbay and top scorer Schick were unable to train fully during the week. They may also not be at 100% on Saturday.
Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
Hradecky – Frimpong, Tah, Hincapie, Bakker – Andrich, Demirbay – Bellarabi, Wirtz, Diaby – Schick
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
1st Bundesliga
01/08 2022 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 2 Union Berlin
12/19 2021 – SC Freiburg 2 – 1 Bayer Leverkusen
12/15 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 2 Hoffenheim
12/12 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 5 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Europa League Grp. G
12/09 2021 – Ferencvaros 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
Gladbach – Leverkusen Tip
The Rhineland derby will certainly be one of the highlights on matchday 19 in the Bundesliga. Not only because there is a lot of prestige at stake, but especially because it is likely that a few goals will be scored. Both teams clearly have their strengths on the offensive, but are very vulnerable defensively. The Werkself even takes this to the extreme with 30 goals conceded already.
Our first approach is therefore to look at the odds on four or more goals in the match between Gladbach and Leverkusen. Exactly four goals were scored in the first leg, all of them for Leverkusen, who have always had the upper hand in their four most recent direct encounters.
For the upcoming encounter on Saturday evening, however, we see the home side ahead. On the one hand, due to recent impressions from the win against Bayern and, on the other hand, considering their solid home record this season (4-2-2). In addition, coach Seoane’s guests will have to do without many important players. Especially in defence, there could be problems against Borussia’s good offensive.
We therefore try to bet on a home win between Gladbach and Leverkusen. This is offered at Bet365 with top odds of 2.60. Five units as a stake are justifiable.
