When the Saturday night match turns into a crisis summit
Hardly a day went by this week without funny memes being posted on social media about the upcoming clash between the Bundesliga’s two problem children, Gladbach and Hertha. On the one hand, these gleeful posts were aimed at the rather unprofitable money of investor Lars Windhorst, which could well have been sunk in the Spree. On the other hand, people on the net were amused by the fact that these two teams are facing each other in the Sky “top game” at 6:30 p.m. on Saturday night of all nights.
Despite the criticism, which is not even unjustified up to a point, but humorously communicated, there is a lot at stake for the teams in the direct duel this weekend. The “old lady” has slipped all the way to the relegation zone after recent poor results and, in the event of a win, could drag Borussia from the Lower Rhine deep into the relegation mess again. According to the Gladbach vs. Hertha odds, however, there is a lot to be said for a home win.
The home side’s task will be made more difficult by the fact that they will have to do without their head coach Adi Hütter, who tested positive and will be replaced by his assistant Christian Peintinger, in preparation for this important match as well as on the sidelines on Saturday evening.
However, we dare to doubt whether the absence of the Austrian, who has already been criticised, will actually have a negative impact on the team. Furthermore, between Gladbach and Hertha, the prediction on the success of the Foals thus seems the more likely variant.
Gladbach – statistics & current form
27 points have Borussia from Mönchengladbach to date after 25 matchdays. Not since the 2010/11 season, at the end of which the club only managed to stay in the relegation zone, have the Foals had fewer points on their account at this point in a Bundesliga season. The statistics already show twelve defeats, one more than in the whole of last season.
Last Sunday, Gladbach made a sporting oath of revelation in their basement duel with VfB Stuttgart. Despite taking a 2-0 lead with two goals, Hütter’s team was left empty-handed. Instead of taking a potentially decisive step out of the relegation zone, the lead over the first direct relegation place shrank to five points. The issue of staying in the relegation zone should therefore not be seen as a foregone conclusion.
Gladbach defence without stability
In particular, the 13th-placed team in the table must work on its own defence. They have already conceded 19 goals in the eight second-round matches since the turn of the year. Only against Bielefeld and Bayern did goalkeeper Yann Sommer concede only one goal, in the other six games he conceded at least two. Among other things, two or more goals were conceded in each of the last six home games.
Against this background, it makes sense to look at the odds for an over-goal game between Gladbach and Hertha. In the last eight encounters at Borussia Park, for example, the bet on the over 2.5 would always have gone through. The second-weakest defence of the 2022 calendar year is countered by a solid offence that has scored twelve goals in eight games. Only six teams have been more accurate since the winter break.
Adi Hütter watches from home
In conclusion, to justify the recommendation for a home win already alluded to, it is worth looking at the remarkable home record against the “old lady”, against whom six of the last eight games were won at home, on the one hand. On the other hand, the performances at home in the recent past were usually more appealing than away from home, even if this was not always reflected in the result.
In terms of personnel, Christian Peintinger, who, as mentioned at the beginning, will be deputising for his boss Hütter, who is in domestic isolation, will definitely have to do without the suspended Bensebaini. Doucoure, Hofmann and Stindl are missing due to injury. Offensively, hopes rest all the more on Alassane Plea, who has been involved in six goals in his last five Bundesliga games.
Predicted line-up of Gladbach:
Sommer – Ginter, Elvedi, Beyer – Lainer, Netz – Neuhaus, Koné – Thuram, Plea – Embolo
Last matches played by Gladbach:
1st Bundesliga
03/05 2022 – VfB Stuttgart 3 – 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach
02/26 2022 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 2 – 2 Vfl Wolfsburg
02/20 2022 – Borussia Dortmund 6 – 0 Borussia Mönchengladbach
02/12 2022 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 – 2 Augsburg
02/05 2022 – Arminia Bielefeld 1 – 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hertha – Statistics & current form
The house is in a bad way again at Hertha Berlin. During the training week, coach Tayfun Korkut pilloried his team and indirectly accused them of not doing everything for the team’s success. Whether the much-criticised German-Turkish coach, who addressed his viral speech to the players in both English and German, can still reach the team is doubtful in view of their performance in recent weeks.
The “Big City Club” is the weakest team in the second half of the season, with only two points from eight games in 2022 and by far the most goals conceded. In total, 23 goals were conceded, i.e. an average of almost three goals per game. Korkut himself, as BSC coach, has a frightening tally of nine points in twelve matches. Only Friedhelm Funkel undercut that figure in 2009/10 with just seven points in his first twelve matches in the capital.
Hertha lack Bundesliga fitness
The current form would almost be glossed over with the predicate “devastating”. The “old lady” has lost the last four Bundesliga games in a row, conceding 15 (!) goals. Since 18 December, Hertha have not been able to score twice in the Bundesliga.
It is therefore not surprising that the Berliners have now fallen back in the standings to relegation place. Knowing about these disastrous numbers, we are far from making a prediction on the guest between Gladbach and Hertha.
Compared to the 1:4 defeat from the previous week against Eintracht Frankfurt, we can expect numerous changes in the starting eleven. Schwolow returns to goal after overcoming an infection, Ascacibar, Stark and Belfodil are also likely to be options for a start.
Predicted line-up of Hertha:
Schwolow – Pekarik, Stark, Kempf, Mittelstädt – Ascacibar – Darida, S. Serdar – M. Richter, Jovetic, Belfodil
Last matches played by Hertha:
1st Bundesliga
03/05 2022 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 4 Eintracht Frankfurt
02/26 2022 – SC Freiburg 3 – 0 Hertha Berlin
02/20 2022 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 6 RB Leipzig
02/12 2022 – Greuther Fürth 2 – 1 Hertha Berlin
02/04 2022 – Hertha Berlin 1 – 1 Vfl Bochum
Gladbach – Hertha Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
After 67 meetings in the highest German division, the record of these clubs is absolutely even. Both clubs have celebrated 25 victories, while the remaining 17 encounters have ended in draws. Since 2013, however, the Foals have won six of the past eight home games against the “old lady”. However, the first leg this season ended 1-0 to the capital club, for whom Marco Richter scored the golden goal of the day just before half-time.
Gladbach – Hertha Tip
Crisis summit at Borussia Park! The problem children of the Beletage of German football face each other in a direct duel. There is an extremely wide gap between aspirations and reality for both clubs. But the situation is definitely even more dramatic for the guests from Berlin. After eight games in the second half of the season, the “old lady” is still without a win, for the first time since 1990/91, when they were relegated to the 2nd division after 34 match days.
Tayfun Korkut’s team is also currently a hot contender for relegation. The fact that the bookmakers don’t have much confidence in the white-blue team is also underlined by the betting odds on the three-way market between Gladbach and Hertha, which clearly point in the direction of the Rhinelanders.
Although the Foals, who will have to do without their head coach Hütter, also have their baggage to carry, at least the offensive is working relatively well in the calendar year 2022. The performances in front of the home crowd and the fact that six of the last eight home games against Hertha have been won also encourage a positive result on Saturday evening.
In our eyes, the Gladbach vs. Hertha clash hides an appealing value in the bet on the home win, although the top odds are only 1.60 at the top. If you still want to bet on higher odds, you can bet on a home win in conjunction with at least three goals in the course of the match or on the team from the Lower Rhine winning both halves. Another defeat cannot be ruled out from the point of view of the “old lady” in view of the 15 goals conceded in the last four league games.
