Will the home-strong promoted team upset the Blancos?
Girona FC were promoted to La Liga last summer via the playoffs, where the Catalans previously played between 2017 and 2019. Remarkably well, the Blanquivermells have found themselves back in the top flight of Spanish soccer. As the eleventh-placed team in the table, they are already eight points clear of the first relegation spot. Consequently, betting on the Blancos against Real Madrid is by no means a foregone conclusion.
While Real Madrid have won six of their last seven competitive games (one defeat) and have not conceded a goal in any of those six victories. However, the promoted team from Catalonia is remarkably strong at home. The Gironistes won eight of their 15 home games and occupy fifth place in the La Liga home table. Accordingly, it is difficult to make a prediction on the outcome of the match between Girona and Real Madrid.
In addition, it speaks for the Gironistes that none of the last two league games against Real Madrid was lost more (one win, one draw). In addition, there is not much at stake for the Blancos, who now face no less than six English weeks in a row, especially in league play. It is almost impossible to close the eleven-point gap on Barcelona in eight games, which is why the focus is clearly on the Champions League and the Copa del Rey.
We do not rule out a surprise, but expect a solid performance from the Merengues. In both cases, however, we do not expect a goal festival at the Estadi Montilivi. Very coherent in this context is the bet that a maximum of two goals will be scored in this match.
Girona – statistics & current form
After several decades of Girona FC bouncing back and forth between Spain’s second and third highest divisions, the Blanquivermells were promoted to La Liga for the first time in the summer of 2017.
The Gironistes held their own in the top flight of Spanish soccer for two years before dropping down a level again in 2019. Despite finishing sixth in the 2021/22 season, however, the Catalans were then promoted back to the country’s top division as playoff winners.
Comfortable eight-point lead over the first relegation spot
Girona, who were considered the number one relegation candidates, have become the absolute surprise team of the 2022/23 season. With 38 points from 30 league games, the Blanquivermells are the promoted team with the most points and are already eight points clear of the first relegation spot in eleventh place in the table.
Under promotion coach Míchel, there shouldn’t be too much left to lose, especially since there has only been one defeat in the last five league games (two wins, two draws). Among other things, the Catalans held FC Barcelona to a 0-0 draw away at Camp Nou. This result also favors our prediction of under 2.5 goals for Girona against Real Madrid.
Fourth most home wins and home goals in La Liga
The fact that things have gone so well for the Gironistes in the 2022/23 season is due first and foremost to their remarkably strong performance at home in the Estadi Montilivi. Only Barcelona (twelve), Real Madrid (ten) and Atletico Madrid (nine) have celebrated more home victories this season than Girona FC (eight).
With a whopping 27 home goals, Míchel’s men even have the fourth-best home offense in La Liga, winning their last two home games against Espanyol Barcelona (2-1) and Elche (2-0). With a correspondingly broad chest, the promoted team now receives the Spanish record champion.
Last games of Girona:
La Liga
- 22/04/2023 – Real Valladolid 1 – 0 Girona
- 16/04/2023 – Girona 2 – 0 Elche
- 11/04/2023 – FC Barcelona 0 – 0 Girona
- 01/04/2023 – Girona 2 – 1 Espanyol
- 18/03/2023 – Rayo Vallecano 2 – 2 Girona
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Real Madrid, after winning the 35th Spanish championship last summer, naturally entered the 2022/23 season with the goal of defending the title at the national level. However, because FC Barcelona left almost nothing to be desired, the Blancos are currently eleven points off first place.
Because they have a small cushion of five points over their city rivals Atletico Madrid in third place, the royals’ attention is currently focused on the other competitions. In the Champions League, Bayern defeat Manchester City in the semifinals. The Merengues also advanced to the final of the Copa del Rey, which has not been won in nine years.
Won six of last seven competitive matches without conceding a goal
While concentration is still high for Carlo Ancelotti’s side, even in La Liga. Most recently, a 2-0 away win in Cadiz was followed by a 2-0 home win against an in-form Celta Vigo. However, the Merengues did not make any great leaps forward with a strong rotation.
The recipe for success at the home-strong promoted team could therefore once again be not to let anything go to waste defensively and to exploit the opportunities that present themselves in an ice-cold manner up front. That has worked well recently. The Madrilenians have won six of their last seven competitive games (one defeat) and have not conceded a goal in any of their six victories.
Won ten of their 15 LaLiga away games
The odds are clearly in favor of Ancelotti’s team against Real Madrid, who have not dropped too many points away from home. The Blancos have won ten of their 15 away games in La Liga this season (one draw, four defeats).
There have also been two away wins in a row at the Gironistes recently. Overall, however, the Galactics have been waiting for another win against the Catalans for two competitive games (one draw, one defeat). So this away trip will not be a complete foregone conclusion.
Last matches of Real Madrid:
La Liga
- 23/04/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Celta Vigo
Champions League Final
- 19/04/2023 – Chelsea FC 0 – 2 Real Madrid
La Liga
- 16/04/2023 – Cadiz 0 – 2 Real Madrid
Champions League Final
- 13/04/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Chelsea FC
La Liga
- 09/04/2023 – Real Madrid 2 – 3 Villarreal FC
Girona – Real Madrid Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 2 – 1 – 4
Only seven competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far and with four wins, Real Madrid leads the head-to-head comparison. However, most recently the Blancos remained winless in two consecutive competitive matches against Girona FC (one draw, one defeat). The first leg at the Bernabéu ended in a 1-1 draw.
Girona – Real Madrid tip
When it comes to Girona against Real Madrid, the betting odds do swing very clearly in the direction of the visitors from the national capital. In fact, however, the Blancos face a decidedly complicated away game. Not only did the Blanquivermells remain unbeaten against the capital twice in a row (one win, one draw), but the Catalans are also the fifth strongest home team in La Liga with eight wins from 15 games. Accordingly, there is little value to be found in the win bet on the royals.
The Blancos travel with a very compact defense. Six of the last seven competitive matches were won without conceding a goal. Therefore, in our eyes, the tip for Girona against Real Madrid is that a maximum of two goals will be scored in this match.
