Will the Blancos stay on track in the small derby?

Despite winning five of their last six league games (one defeat), Real Madrid are four points behind leaders Barcelona. If they want to have any chance of winning the championship, they need to take maximum points from their remaining six games. Basically, the tip for Getafe vs. Real Madrid is for an away win for the Merengues, which looks likely.

Not only has Getafe lost three of its last four league games (one win), thereby completely squandering its slim chance of qualifying for European competition, but the Azulones have also lost all of their last six derbies against the Blancos, with a goal difference of 1-10. Accordingly, there seems to be no alternative to predicting an away win for Real Madrid against Getafe, although they will have to keep an eye on fatigue. After all, the Copa del Rey final against none other than FC Barcelona is taking place on Saturday.

The small Madrid derby, in which only once in the last ten games have more than two goals been scored, is unlikely to be a high-scoring affair. However, Real Madrid have usually needed just one goal to decide the game against their small rivals from the Madrid suburbs. We therefore find slightly more value in the direct bet on an away win for Los Blancos than in the interesting under bet.

Getafe – Statistics & current form

Getafe CF is currently enjoying a very strong spell under José Bordalás. Last season, the Madrid suburb club finished twelfth in the table and had little to worry about in terms of relegation. In 2024/25, they even had their sights set on a European place at times. However, after losing three of their last four La Liga games (one win), the Azulones are likely to miss out on European football, slipping back to the twelfth place they finished in last season with six games to go.

At least they have an eight-point cushion above the relegation zone with six games left to play, so they should be safe from the drop. If they manage to pick up points against the Blancos, they can start planning for another year in the top flight. However, the odds are clearly against Getafe against Real Madrid.

Getafe lacked bite up front

In addition to their current form, which has been on the decline following defeats to Villarreal (1-2), Las Palmas (1-3) and Espanyol Barcelona (0-1), Getafe CF’s record against the Spanish record champions also speaks against them. The Madrid suburbs have lost all of their last six mini-derbies against the Blancos, scoring just one goal against them in that period.

To make matters worse, their home ground, the Estadio Coliseum, is anything but an impregnable fortress. Only bottom-of-the-table Real Valladolid have won fewer home games (three) than Getafe (four) in 2024/25. In 16 home games, they have conceded only 14 goals, which makes the Azulones the second-best home defense in La Liga. However, with only 14 goals scored, their compactness has clearly come at the expense of offensive punch, which could once again be a problem in the clash with the Royals.

Real Madrid – Statistics & current form

Real Madrid are currently considered to be on the ropes since it became clear that they will not be able to defend their Champions League title. With two defeats and a total score of 1-5, the Merengues bowed out of the quarter-finals against Arsenal FC. Two other titles are still possible, but are not very likely, at least according to the bookmakers.

After all, they are only four points behind the leaders. Should the Blaugrana drop points against Mallorca on Tuesday, which is not entirely out of the question given the Catalans’ heavy schedule, Carlo Ancelotti’s side, who have been under criticism, could possibly get back within striking distance if Real Madrid win away at Getafe. This is supported by the fact that the last six competitive games against the Azulones have all been won with a goal difference of 10:1.

Real Madrid with strong away form

Overall, the results in La Liga have also been good recently. At the beginning of April, there was a 1-2 home defeat against Valencia. However, this was the only point dropped in the last six league games, from which an impressive 15 out of a possible 18 points were won. The Blancos have also been impressive away from home, conceding just 15 goals – only city rivals Atlético have conceded fewer away from home (13) – and winning eight of their 16 away games in 2024/25 (five draws, three defeats).

The Merengues therefore have it in their own hands to not only keep the pressure on the Catalans in the title race with another three points on the road, but also to send a small message to Catalonia ahead of the Copa del Rey final. The fact that Kylian Mbappé, who is the Galácticos’ top scorer in La Liga with 22 goals, is theoretically available again after serving his suspension should further increase Madrid’s chances.

Getafe – Real Madrid Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 6 – 4 – 29

The Madrid derby between Getafe and Real Madrid has been played 39 times so far, with the Blancos coming out on top in 29 of those games, including the last six in a row, in which the Azulones have scored just one goal.

Getafe – Real Madrid Tip

The bottom line is that we’re predicting an away win for Real Madrid against Getafe. Although they suffered a disappointing exit from the Champions League in the quarter-finals, they have picked up 15 out of a possible 18 points from their last six La Liga games and have been largely unflappable. The Azulones, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four league games (one win) and have thus squandered their already slim chance of qualifying for Europe. With an eight-point cushion, the Madrid suburbs are only playing for the prestige of a derby win, but otherwise have nothing to play for.

We don’t expect a goal fest at the Estadio Coliseum, but we do expect the Spanish record champions to get the job done in their usual unflappable manner. Accordingly, we think a bet on an away win for the Blancos is a good option.