Will Real, short of substitutes, prevail in the derby?
Around the turn of the year, the end of the first half of the season is on the agenda in the Spanish top flight. One match will be played on Friday, the rest will follow on Sunday and Monday. The first league match of 2022 in LaLiga will be a small derby in the capital. Relegation candidates Getafe will receive Real Madrid, the sovereign league leaders.
In view of this table situation, the starting position seems to be more than clear. Nevertheless, relatively high betting odds are offered for an away win in the duel between Getafe and Real Madrid. A gift from the bookmakers at the start of the new year? Not at all, because there are definitely reasons to doubt the victory of the league leader. Whether these are justified is examined more closely in this article.
The fact is in any case that the hosts are on an upward trend despite their current relegation place. But will this be enough for a surprise? The match kicks off at the Coliseum Alfonso Perez on Sunday at 2 p.m.
Getafe – Statistics & current form
Seven games – seven defeats. Getafe experienced a real horror start after the departure of long-time success coach Pepe Bordalas (went to Valencia). In the meantime, this catastrophic start has been somewhat concealed, as a clear upward trend could be seen in the last weeks of 2021 under coach Quique Sanchez Flores.
Five games without defeat
Since Flores took over as Getafe coach for the third time in his career (he once started his career as a youth coach at Real Madrid), Getafe have gradually stabilised. In the last five league games of the year, Getafe were also able to convince in terms of results and remained unbeaten in each case.
The defence was particularly strong, conceding just one goal in these games. The switch to the 5-3-2 system is bearing fruit and has led to a clear upward trend. Against the big neighbours, the outsiders will focus on working against the ball, despite good results. A spectacular game on the part of the home side is therefore not to be expected. This certainly speaks in favour of a forecast for an Under 2.5 in the small derby between Getafe and Real Madrid.
1.78 goals per Getafe game
The above prediction of a maximum of two goals has been a good choice for Getafe very often this season. Only six of their 18 games this season have seen more than two goals and overall they have averaged just 1.78 goals per league game so far. This is the second lowest value of all 20 LaLiga teams, only Athletic Biblao can beat this with 1.74 goals.
In total, Getafe scored just twelve goals, making them the worst offensive team in the Spanish LaLiga. Only Enes Ünal (five goals) and Sandro Ramirez (two goals) have scored more than once.
Predicted line-up of Getafe:
Soria – Olivera, Mitrovic, Djene, Cuenca, Suarez – Arambarri, Maksimovic – Alena – Ünal, Ramirez
Last matches played by Getafe:
LaLiga
12/19 2021 – Getafe 1 – 0 Osasuna Pamplona
Copa del Rey
12/16 2021 – Atletico Baleares 5 – 0 Getafe
LaLiga
12/11 2021 – Deportivo Alaves 1 – 1 Getafe
12/06 2021 – Getafe 0 – 0 Athletic Bilbao
Copa del Rey
11/30 2021 – CFJ Mollerussa 1 – 5 Getafe
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
Only one league game Real Madrid lost this season. While the competition in the Spanish top flight is struggling with major sporting problems, the royals are rushing from success to success. The first-round title has long since been secured, with the team led by returning coach Carlo “Carletto” Ancelotti holding a comfortable eight-point lead over Sevilla FC ahead of the final game of the first half of the season.
Big personnel worries
19 games, 14 wins, four draws and one defeat are the impressive figures and yet odds of up to 1.80 are offered on Getafe against Real Madrid when betting on the sovereign league leaders.
The reason for this is the countless absences in the visitors’ camp. Since mid-December, the royals have already had to lament twelve positive cases in the squad. For the first match of the new year, Ancelotti will have to do without regular goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois, Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga and Vinicius Junior for this reason. Dani Carvajal is also unavailable due to injury.
The league leaders will therefore certainly have to accept a loss of quality, but Ancelotti still has a very strong squad at his disposal. Andriy Lunin will get his first competitive minutes between the posts. After Ancelotti had already promised him minutes at the end of September, his big hour has now come. He was convincing in the preparation and even without Courtois, Real can rely on a very strong goalkeeper.
Goal number 300 for Benzema?
A big part of the outstanding season so far has been Frenchman Karim Benzema. 2021 has been a terrific year for the veteran, who has already recorded 15 goals and seven assists this LaLiga season. This brings Benzema’s tally to 299 goals after 582 appearances for the Royals. So the new year could start with an anniversary right away.
Predicted Real Madrid line-up:
Lunin – Mendy, Nacho Fernandez, Alaba, Vazquez – Casemiro, Kroos, Modric – Hazard, Benzema, Rodrygo
Last matches played by Real Madrid:
LaLiga
12/22 2021 – Athletic Bilbao 1 – 2 Real Madrid
12/19 2021 – Real Madrid 0 – 0 Cadiz
12/12 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Atletico Madrid
Champions League Grp. D
12/07 2021 – Real Madrid 2 – 0 Inter Milan
LaLiga
12/04 2021 – San Sebastian 0 – 2 Real Madrid
Getafe – Real Madrid Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
For the most part, the small city derby in Madrid has been a very clear affair for the house favourites. So far, the two clubs have faced each other 32 times in the Spanish top flight, with the Royals winning 23 games. Only five times did Getafe manage the big surprise.
An encouragement for the very uneven duel is certainly the fact that four of the five victories were at home in the Colisseum Alfonso Perez. The last success came in 2012/13, but in two of Getafe’s last three home games against Real Madrid, betting on a draw (both goalless) was the right choice.
Getafe – Real Madrid Tip
The small city derby in Madrid at the start of 2021 is a duel between two teams that can certainly come with a broad chest. Despite Getafe’s position in the table, the development is very pleasing. The personnel situation at the visitors certainly plays into the underdog’s cards a little and therefore the bookmakers do not see a bet on at least a point win for the home side (double chance 1x) as unrealistic.
Even without the best line-up, Real Madrid are clearly above Getafe. The individual quality of Ancelotti’s team is outstanding and with Benzema in top form, it is hard to imagine Real losing. The 1.80 seems a bit too high and therefore we recommend betting on Getafe vs. Real Madrid at reasonable odds on the away win with a stake of seven units.
