How hungover will the capital city team be when they travel?
The hosts will be counting on timing in this encounter. The visitors will be more tired, as they were in action against Bodö/Glimt in the Europa League last Thursday evening. The match ended in a penalty shootout and was particularly energy-sapping. Is it therefore worth betting on a home win for Genoa against Lazio Rome?
From a statistical perspective, no: not only have the hosts lost their last three encounters with the Romans in Serie A and Coppa Italia, they have also failed to score in each of those games!
Currently, the home side’s offense is once again in need of improvement. This is quickly demonstrated by the fact that they have scored only one goal in their last three league games. For the match between Genoa and Lazio Rome, the prediction now includes less than 2.5 goals.
Genoa vs. Lazio Rome prediction AI
Our artificial intelligence has also taken a look at the match on Easter Monday and, like us, is convinced that it will be a low-scoring game. It has calculated an expected goals value of 2.04 for the match on Easter Monday – the second lowest value of the matchday.
Furthermore, BETSiE puts the probability of both teams not scoring at 59.9 percent, which is slightly higher than the odds of 1.72 at Bet365, which translates to a probability of 58.1. Against this backdrop, the Genoa vs. Lazio Rome AI prediction is that there will be no goals scored by either side.
Genoa – Statistics & current form
The season is already over for the “Rossoblu.” In twelfth place in the table, there is little to play for. The motivation on the part of the players at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris is therefore certainly not overwhelming in the final games.
At least in their home games, however, “Il Grifone” have been impressive recently. The hosts have not lost any of their six league games in front of their own fans in 2025 and have only failed to win once!
The defense in particular has been solid in home games, conceding only two goals in the aforementioned matches. Admittedly, the schedule has been relatively easy, with most of the teams coming from the bottom of the table.
No more than one goal conceded for Genoa?
Nevertheless, due to the defensive strength described above and the timing of the match, in which the visitors will be physically tired, the odds for Genoa against Lazio Rome are for a maximum of one goal from the visitors from the Tiber.
Due to their solid home defense and only solid offense, the home league games of last season’s eleventh-placed Serie A team are relatively low-scoring. Only one of their last five home games has seen more than two goals, with an average of 2.3 goals per game. This is a figure that only four teams in Serie A have managed to beat.
Pinamonti with plenty of room for improvement
Coach Patrick Vieira is once again struggling with the recent performances of his top goal scorer Andrea Pinamonti. Although the striker has scored almost a third of all goals this season for the nine-time Italian champions (excluding own goals by opponents), he is currently lacking efficiency. The Italian has been waiting for another goal for seven league games.
Lazio Rome – Statistics & current form
Unlike their opponents, last season’s seventh-placed team still has sporting goals in the league. Sixth in the current table, the visitors are fighting for international places and still have their sights set on the Champions League.
Last Thursday, coach Marco Baroni’s team also had European action. The second leg against Norwegian side Bodö/Glimt was on the agenda, and after a 0-2 defeat in the first leg, a 3-1 win after extra time followed, but the subsequent penalty shootout ended in a painful defeat for the Italians.
Lazio likes to travel
However, the Biancocelesti can rely on their away form against Genoa. Only Bergamo has more wins on the road than the two-time national champions (9). Another positive for the seven-time Coppa Italia winners is the recent return of Taty Castellanos.
This means that the visitors once again have their club’s top scorer in Serie A at their disposal. However, the striker clearly still lacks competitive practice. In his four appearances since his comeback, he has scored only one goal, and in the most recent Europa League match, Castellanos missed his team’s last penalty, sealing their elimination from the competition.
In general, the offense of the team from the Stadio Olimpico currently has a lot of room for improvement in Serie A. A meager four goals in the last five league games prove this assessment. Due to the lack of goals, the visitors have won only one game in this review.
No winner between Genoa and Lazio Rome?
In light of this and the home strength of the hosts described above, the betting odds for a draw in the match between Genoa and Lazio Rome are also worth considering.
Genoa – Lazio Rome Head-to-head record / H2H record
As mentioned at the beginning, Lazio has won the last three matches against Genoa without conceding a goal. The odds for the upcoming match between Genoa and Lazio Rome once again favor the visitors, albeit only slightly.
Genoa – Lazio Rome Tip
For the match between Genoa and Lazio Rome, the tip is for a maximum of two goals. The hosts are very solid defensively in their home games, but the visitors can be considered the stronger team.
This is easy to see from the fact that they have 17 points more. At the same time, they will be more tired than their opponents, as they were already challenged by Bodö/Glimt in the Europa League a few days ago.
Against this backdrop, an offensive fireworks display from the Romans is also not to be expected. Genoa against Lazio Rome is also supported by the CFC’s chronically low-scoring home games. On average, only 2.3 goals are scored in these encounters – only four teams in Serie A have a lower average.
On top of that, only six of the 16 home games played ended with more than two goals, and Genoa’s lack of goals in their home league games has increased significantly in 2025. In the six home games since the turn of the year, an average of 1.83 goals were scored, and the 2.5-goal mark was exceeded only once.
