Are the Tricky Trees too strong for the Londoners?

On Saturday, two surprise teams of the 2024/25 season will face each other at London’s Craven Cottage. Fulham FC, in ninth place in the table, are still aiming for the European starting places and are not worried about relegation, while the guests from the East Midlands are on course for the Champions League with a four-point lead in fourth place. Fulham vs. Nottingham, if the prediction of an away win for the Tricky Trees comes true, they would break the 50-point mark in the Premier League for the first time since 1995/96.

However, the Cottagers have been extremely difficult to beat recently. At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have only lost three of their 12 Premier League home games in the 2024/25 season (four wins, five draws), which is why the prediction against the Reds is by no means a sure thing at Fulham against Nottingham. But: Forest are in extremely good form, having picked up 25 out of a possible 30 points from their last 10 league games.

The record, on the other hand, speaks for the Whites, who have won four of their last five Premier League games against Nottingham Forest (one defeat) and also just won the first leg in the East Midlands 1-0. In the last two home games at Craven Cottage, the Londoners even managed two clean sheets against the Reds, scoring a total of 7 goals.

Nevertheless, we find the biggest value in the tip on the away win of the Tricky Trees. In the Bet-at-home app, Fulham against Nottingham odds of 3.45 for the Reds’ away win are on the record. Anyone who gives Forest even a 29 percent chance of winning is already in the value range.

Fulham – Statistics & current form

Fulham FC finished a solid 13th in the Premier League last summer and have no relegation worries in the new season either. On the contrary, with only a five-point gap to fifth place, the current ninth-placed team could even have the potential to move up the table.

After all, the Cottagers have shown solid form in the Premier League, winning two of their last three games (one loss). This means that the Londoners have managed to record as many wins as in their previous ten league games (six draws, two defeats). Now they have the chance to win two league games in a row for the first time since November.

Fulham have a strong record against Nottingham

A glance at the head-to-head reveals a clear dominance: Fulham have won four of their last five Premier League meetings with Nottingham Forest (one loss), including their last two home games with an impressive overall result of 7-0.

The fact that Marco Silva’s side, who also won 1-0 in the first leg in the East Midlands, will take advantage of this series is considered quite likely by the betting providers. At Betano, Fulham are offering odds of 2.22 for tip 1 against Nottingham, with the betting provider also currently offering a Betano €20 freebet.

Fulham make clever use of their substitutions

Fulham’s efficiency from the bench speaks for the Whites. Rodrigo Muniz’s winning goal against Newcastle was the eleventh Premier League goal scored by a Fulham substitute this season – a joint-best tally with Bournemouth. Three of those goals have been match-winning strikes, only Bournemouth have more at four.

Raúl Jiménez could also reach a personal best in this game: another goal would take the Mexican’s league double-digit tally to double digits for the first time since 2019/20. Incidentally, the direct witness could once again be the visitors’ coach Nuno Espírito Santo, who was still coaching Jiménez himself at the time…

Fulham’s provisional line-up:

Nottingham – statistics & current form

Last summer, Nottingham Forest Football Club almost went down. The Tricky Trees only just managed to avoid relegation by finishing in 17th place, whereupon Nuno Espírito Santo, who had been hired as a fireman in the winter, was allowed to stay.

Since then, the Portuguese has managed to transform the traditional club, which even won the European Cup in 1979, from a relegation candidate to a Champions League contender.

Nottingham has climbed to the top of the table

The Garibaldis have been in extremely strong form recently. They have won eight of their last ten Premier League games (one draw, one defeat). Their defensive stability is particularly impressive: five of their ten clean sheets can be traced back to their last eight games.

Fulham face Nottingham at Craven Cottage on Sunday, and if the Tricky Trees win away, they will reach the 50-point mark in a Premier League season for the first time since the 1995/96 campaign. It would be the second-fastest points tally in the club’s top-flight history – after the 1977/78 season, when this milestone was reached after just 23 games and the Reds went on to win their first and only league title.

Will Wood, Elanga and co score again?

The East Midlands side were particularly convincing in this regard. Whenever an opponent offered something, Forest were there. No other team benefited from more opponent errors leading directly to a goal (13) in this Premier League season. At the same time, Forest themselves have only produced two such errors – only Arsenal are even more stable in this respect (zero).

Chris Wood and Anthony Elanga are currently one of the most effective offensive duos in the league. Since the beginning of last season, the two have already scored 11 Premier League goals together. Elanga’s ten assists for Wood are the most that any player has provided for a specific teammate during that time.

Predicted Nottingham lineup:

Fulham – Nottingham Head to head:

Head to head: 46 – 28 – 33

A total of 107 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far and with 46 wins, Fulham FC lead the direct comparison by a very clear margin. The Cottagers also won the first leg 1-0 and have won four of their last five Premier League games against the Tricky Trees (one defeat). Fulham have won their last two Premier League home games at Craven Cottage, beating the Reds 7-0 on aggregate.

Fulham – Nottingham Tip

Although the head-to-head comparison favors the Londoners, most of the other facts suggest that the prediction of an away win for the Reds will hold in the Fulham v Nottingham game. The Reds have hardly left anything to chance recently and remain fully on course for the Champions League. Fulham have kept a clean sheet in five of their last eight Premier League games, so betting against a goal fest at Craven Cottage also makes sense.

In view of the fact that Fulham against Nottingham are offering betting odds of 3.45 for tip 2, we are clearly going with the supposed underdogs. Anyone who gives the in-form third-placed team, which has won eight of its last ten league games (one draw, one defeat), even a 29 percent chance of an away win, is already in the value range.

Since we would even give the brilliant Garibaldis a chance of around 38 to 40 percent, this recommendation is therefore very sound from a mathematical point of view alone. Of course, caution is still advised when betting, which is why we are leaving it at two units at Bet-at-home.