Does Aston Villa slip further?

We can look forward to some interesting matches in the Premier League during the week. Among other things, things are also heating up in the lower half of the table. For example, Aston Villa have the chance to move past the promoted side in the standings with an away win at Fulham. However, Steven Gerrard’s side have once again been far too harmless of late.

The home side, who are synonymous with spectacle like no other team in the English top flight, are in a completely different position. Before the direct duel between Fulham and Aston Villa, the prediction on the outcome of the game will therefore depend largely on which team can get its own style of play better on the pitch and put its own stamp on the opponent.

If we look at the odds before the match between Fulham and Aston Villa, the bookmakers tested even consider an away win to be the slightly more realistic scenario. However, with odds of 2.95 on a home win and 2.50 on the visitors’ success, there is no clear favourite role for either team.

It makes all the more sense to treat the three-way market stepmotherly and rather focus on other types of bets. For example, how about betting that both teams will score?

Fulham – Statistics & current form

After two successive promotions to the Premier League, Fulham Football Club have been relegated to the Championship after just one season, but the capital club’s managers can be pleased with their current tally after ten games.

The team of Portuguese coach Marco Silva already has twelve points on its account. They have already won three league games, which is a remarkable achievement considering that the Whites only managed a total of twelve trebles in the last two years in the first division. Eleventh place is the reward for a reasonable start to the season, which must also be seen in the light of the fact that they are only four points clear of the relegation zone.

There’s always something going on with the Cottagers this season

What is particularly noticeable is that the Londoners have a very good offence with 16 goals. Top clubs such as Chelsea (15), Manchester United (13) or West Ham (nine) undercut this figure, sometimes significantly. In the past eight Premier League games, the promoted team has scored at least once. The main guarantor for the remarkable output in the game with the ball is, of course, Aleksandar Mitrovic, who has scored 50 goals in league action for FFC since the start of last season and has been able to cheer nine goals in his last eight home games at Craven Cottage.

Nevertheless, it has to be said that the bold style of play often comes at the expense of the team’s own defence. They have already conceded 20 goals. Only the goalkeepers from Bournemouth and Leicester have cleared the net more often than Bernd Leno.

The bottom line is that 36 goals were scored in the first ten matchdays involving the Whites, an average of 3.6 per game. In nine out of ten cases, the bet on “both teams to score” would have gone through, which is why we think that betting on both teams to score is a sensible option for Thursday night’s match between Fulham and Aston Villa. Salomon, Kurzawa and Tete are missing due to injury. Chalobah continues to serve a red suspension.

Predicted line-up of Fulham:
Leno – Robinson, Ream, Diop, Cordova-Reid – Palhinha, Reed – Kebano, Pereira, James – Mitrovic

Last matches played by Fulham:

Premier League
15/10/2022 – Fulham 2 – 2 Bournemouth

09/10/2022 – West Ham 3 – 1 Fulham

01/10/2022 – Fulham 1 – 4 Newcastle

17/09/2022 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 3 Fulham

03/09/2022 – Tottenham 2 – 1 Fulham

Aston Villa – Statistics & current form

Aston Villa had actually set themselves the target of attacking at the top before the start of this season. However, the reality after ten matchdays looks different and is a relegation battle. With a poor record of two wins, three draws and already five defeats, the traditional club, which spent tens of millions on new players in the summer, is currently only in 16th place. They are one point ahead of the relegation zone.

The biggest shortcoming of the Birmingham club is undoubtedly its far too harmless offensive. Ings and Co. have only scored seven goals so far. Only Wolverhampton Wanderers have scored less often than Steven Gerrard’s charges, who only managed more than one goal during a match in their 2-1 home win over Everton on matchday two. At the weekend, meanwhile, Villa went down 2-0 to Chelsea, the fourth time they have failed to score.

To make matters worse for Thursday, the Villans have lost seven of their eight PL away games in London since the start of pre-season and have generally won just one of their last eight league games (three draws, four defeats, five goals scored). We would therefore refrain from predicting an away win ahead of the Fulham vs. Aston Villa match and instead bet on the home side scoring the first goal of the game. Gerrard’s side have been 1-0 down in six of their ten matches to date.

Various statistics speak against Aston Villa

However, we still believe that the visiting team will score a goal due to their quality. Especially if Philippe Coutinho and Co. manage to become more efficient in front of goal. So far, only seven out of a total of 116 shots – a disastrous 6% of all attempts on goal – have resulted in a goal.

Add to this the fact that Villa have won only two of their last nine league games against promoted teams, and that last year’s 14th-placed team has a lower winning percentage on any day of the week than on Thursdays, and it is somewhat surprising that lower odds are offered on an away win between Fulham and Aston Villa.

Diego Carlos and Boubacar Kamara are missing long-term. There are question marks behind Digne and Augustinsson. Coutinho and Buendia, who were initially benched at the weekend, should move into the starting eleven, giving the attack a noticeable boost.

Projected Aston Villa line-up:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Young; McGinn, Luiz, Ramsey; Buendia, Watkins, Coutinho

Last matches played by Aston Villa:

Premier League
16/10/2022 – Aston Villa 0 – 2 Chelsea FC

11/10/2022 – Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Aston Villa

02/10/2022 – Leeds 0 – 0 Aston Villa

17/09/2022 – Aston Villa 1 – 0 Southampton

03/09/2022 – Aston Villa 1 – 1 Manchester City

Fulham – Aston Villa Direct comparison / H2H record

This is the 49th time the two clubs have faced each other in the English top flight. There have been 14 wins for Fulham, 18 victories for Aston Villa and 16 draws. However, the Londoners’ home record against their upcoming opponents is very good. Eleven victories compare to nine draws and only four defeats.

With Villa having won both the home and away legs of their PL campaign in 2020/21, this is the first time since 2004 that the Birmingham club have won three competitive games in a row.

Fulham – Aston Villa Tip

Although the Whites have collected three more points than the Villans from the first ten matchdays and the Londoners have also already recorded eight points in front of their own fans, lower betting odds are offered on the away win between Fulham and Aston Villa. We do not agree with this assessment, as the visitors from Birmingham have been too harmless so far this season.

Gerrard’s side have won just one of their last eight league games, scoring a total of just five goals, and have scored a maximum of one goal per game since mid-August. The home side, meanwhile, are synonymous with spectacle. They have scored 16 goals and conceded 20. An average of 3.6 goals per FFC match

With these figures in mind, we are confident that betting on both teams to score between Fulham and Aston Villa will pay off.