Will the Black Forest push the door to the knockout round wide open?
With six points out of a possible nine, SC Freiburg are currently on course to reach the Europa League for the second time in a row. However, the Black Forest side lost their only home game in Group A so far with a 2-1 defeat to West Ham United. This means they have only three home wins from their twelve games so far in this competition (four draws, five defeats). Nevertheless, Freiburg vs TSC betting tip 1 is clearly under the better star
Not only did the Bundesliga side win the first leg in Backa Topola two weeks ago, but the Serbian runners-up did not sell themselves too dearly overall. Including the qualifiers, the visitors have already conceded 15 goals in five competitive European matches this season, which certainly influences the prediction for Freiburg against TSC. After all, the Serbs have conceded an average of three goals per game
On the one hand, Sport-Club struggled to score goals at times in 2023/24 and also have the fifth weakest attack in the Bundesliga. And on the other hand, the Black Forest side have conceded at least one goal in each of their last seven competitive matches and 15 goals in total. So it could ultimately be a tight affair against FK TSC.
In our opinion, the bet on the visitors from Backa Topola with an Asian handicap of +2.0 is very interesting. This covers any points won by the underdog as well as any Freiburg home win with a one-goal difference, while a two-goal lead at least gets the stake back
Freiburg – statistics & current form
SC Freiburg already represented the Bundesliga in the Europa League last season and ultimately only failed to reach the knockout phase against Juventus Turin. Finishing fifth in the final table, the Black Forest side will be able to make another attempt at this competition in the 2023/24 season.
The team from Breisgau sold themselves very well, picking up six out of a possible nine points from the first two games. Sport-Club won the far from easy away games at Olympiakos Piraeus (3:2) and FK TSC (3:1), where they turned around a 0:1 deficit at the break two weeks ago
Only won three of the twelve Europa League home games so far
Only the only Europa League home game of the 2023/24 season so far has been lost by the team from Baden-Württemberg (1:2 against West Ham United). This means they have currently lost two home games in a row in this competition.
Overall, SCF do not have an overly impressive home record in Europe’s second most important competition for club teams. Freiburg have won just three of their twelve home games (four draws, five defeats)
The fifth weakest offense in the Bundesliga
Despite this, the odds are stacked in favor of Christian Streich’s side against TSC in Freiburg, although they will not be at their best going into this game. They have recently gone two Bundesliga games in a row without a win (one draw, one defeat), while there was also a cold shower in the 2nd round of the DFB Cup.
Instead of beating second-division side SC Paderborn in their own stadium, the Black Forest side were surprisingly eliminated with a 3:1 defeat. In addition to the many goals conceded, the lack of offensive penetration was also an issue. Only four other teams in the Bundesliga have scored fewer goals than Sport-Club…
Predicted Freiburg line-up:
TSC – Statistics & current form
FK TSC is based in the Serbian town of Backa Topola and has been in existence since 1913, making it the second-oldest club behind FK Vojvodina in the top Serbian division.
The club from the Serbian north has been back in the country’s top division since 2019, with the runners-up finish in the 2022/23 season taking the blue and whites into the group stage of a European competition for the first time in the club’s history.
First one of nine points in the Europa League group stage
FK TSC have not yet covered themselves in too much glory in the Europa League. The northern Serbs have picked up just one point out of a possible nine from their first three group games and are already five points behind SC Freiburg, against whom they lost their last home game 3-1.
Since that defeat, however, things could have been much worse for the Blue & Whites, who have not lost any of their subsequent three matches in the Super Liga Srbje (one win, two draws) and not only earned a point away at Red Star Belgrade (1-1), but even won 2-0 at Cukaricki in their dress rehearsal on Sunday. The team from Backa Topola are now third in the table
Already conceded 15 goals in five competitive European matches in 2023/24
Nevertheless, the betting odds are now stacked against TSC in Freiburg, where coach Zarko Lazetic’s side are unlikely to win a point. After all, the Blue & Whites’ major shortcoming is and remains their defensive vulnerability.
While they have only conceded twelve goals in 13 league games in Serbia’s top flight (second-best behind Partizan Belgrade with ten goals conceded), they have already conceded 15 goals in their five competitive European matches in the 2023/24 season – an average of three goals per game.
Predicted line-up of TSC:
Freiburg – TSC Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 1 – 0 – 0
The first leg the Thursday before last was the first and only meeting between the two teams to date. The 3-1 away win in Serbia, in which Vincenzo Grifo became the first Freiburg player of all time and the first Italian Bundesliga player since Luca Toni (2007 with Bayern against Aris) to score a treble in a UEFA competition main round match, means Sport-Club lead the head-to-head
Freiburg – TSC betting tip
In the run-up to the second leg between Freiburg and TSC, the betting odds are clearly in favor of the Black Forest side, making it almost impossible to find value in the three-way system. On the one hand, we also believe that a home win for the team from Breisgau is the most likely outcome. On the other hand, Sport-Club have only won three of their twelve Europa League home games to date (four draws, five defeats) and have lost both of their last two games at home.
In view of the Black Forest’s recent results, we do not expect a resounding victory in any case, so it makes sense to play the prediction for Freiburg against TSC with an Asian handicap of +2.0. In this way, we protect ourselves against the Serbs winning points, win with a goal difference for every home win by Freiburg and still get the stake back in the event of a two-goal difference.
