Crowns Freiburg a great Hinrunde?
The top match in the Bundesliga table on Matchday 17 will take place on Sunday afternoon at the Europa-Park-Stadion. The fifth-placed team from Breisgau meets the third-placed team from the Rhineland. Freiburg receives Leverkusen. According to the odds, a close match is to be expected, similar to the recent past, by the way. Since 2013, only three of 13 league encounters between these teams have been decided by a difference of more than one goal. In the same period, there have also been five draws.
It seems very likely that the supposedly favoured Leverkusen will have a hard time at the new Europa-Park-Stadion this weekend, especially as Sport-Club are still known to have the best defence in the top flight and Seoane’s side have also suffered two recent setbacks in terms of results.
Although Bayer have enjoyed travelling to the Black Forest in the past, at first glance there is a lot to be said for predicting a double chance 1X between Freiburg and Leverkusen. Particularly in light of the fact that the Werkself is coming off a second consecutive English week and may have to pay tribute to the double-header with a run-heavy opponent
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
SC Freiburg will end an absolutely satisfactory first half of the Bundesliga on Sunday afternoon. 26 points after 16 games has not been achieved at the Dreisam since 2010/11. If Christian Streich’s team were to win against Leverkusen, they would not only spend the winter in a Champions League spot, but with 29 points they would also have played the second-best first half of the season in the club’s history.
At the moment, however, we are still writing in the subjunctive, because at least with regard to a potential home win for the Black Forest side, it has to be said that the SCF is no longer in the form it was in just a few weeks ago. Four of the last six games were lost, and the Sport-Club also lost the two most recent home games against Frankfurt (0:2) and Hoffenheim (1:2). However, these were the only two home defeats of the current season (3-3-2).
Does Freiburg show its good home face again at the end of the first half?
Hope for a positive result is given by the interesting statistic that the Breisgau side under Christian Streich has only lost one match on matchday 17 of a season in the past eight years. The southern Germans have now been unbeaten for four matches at the end of the first half of the season. Apart from that, the fifth-placed team in the table has not lost three home matches in a row for more than three years. Will it stay that way after Sunday?
Another argument that points to at least a point win for the home side in the direction of Freiburg vs Leverkusen betting tips is the extremely strong defence. No other team has conceded fewer goals than Streich’s eleven. At the same time, the 15 goals conceded is also a new club record after 16 matchdays. Most recently, Schlotterbeck, Günter and Co. fought their way to a respectable 0-0 draw at Union Berlin. In terms of personnel, coach Streich will only have to do without Gulde, Keitel and Schmidt at the weekend.
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
Flekken – Lienhart, K. Schlotterbeck, N. Schlotterbeck – Kübler, M. Eggestein, Höfler, Günter – Jeong, Grifo – Höler
Last matches played by Freiburg:
1st Bundesliga
12/15 2021 – Union Berlin 0 – 0 SC Freiburg
12/11 2021 – SC Freiburg 1 – 2 Hoffenheim
12/05 2021 – Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 – 6 SC Freiburg
11/27 2021 – Vfl Bochum 2 – 1 SC Freiburg
11/21 2021 – SC Freiburg 0 – 2 Eintracht Frankfurt
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
Bayer Leverkusen have had an exciting week. A week with two games so far, in which the Werkself could well have taken six points instead of one. In both the away game in Frankfurt and at home against Hoffenheim, the Rhinelanders were already leading 2:0, but were defeated in Hesse with 2:5 and did not manage more than a disappointing 2:2 against TSG. Thus, on matchday 17, they are threatened with slipping out of the Champions League ranks.
At the same time, the repeated squandering of leads has naturally left its mark on the minds of Seoane’s team. Sometimes the lack of consistency in a match can also be explained by the young average age of the Leverkusen players.
Leverkusen’s inconsistency as a king’s problem
There is no lack of talent, no lack of speed, but it is often individual mistakes or lack of concentration that invite the opponent to score. 26 goals conceded are definitely a few too many at this stage of the season, especially when you consider that a third of those goals conceded are attributable to the most recent four league games. For the first time since February 2015, two goals in two consecutive Bundesliga games were not enough to cheer at least a three-goal win.
This is one of the reasons why we would be cautious about betting on an away win between Leverkusen and Freiburg on Sunday, especially as only one of the last four away games in the top flight of German football was won. A more interesting bet is that both teams will score. The Werkself have only kept their clean sheet four times this season. Florian Wirtz, Patrik Schick and Co. have only failed to score once.
However, the task on Sunday will be made more difficult by the fact that Moussa Diaby, an enormously important difference-maker from the offensive side, will be missing after being sent off during the week. All the more hopes rest on striker Schick, who has scored Leverkusen’s last eight Bundesliga goals. In the last three games, the Czech always scored at least a brace. Insane values!
Predicted Leverkusen line-up:
Hradecky – Frimpong, Tah, Tapsoba, Hincapie – C. Aranguiz, Andrich – Bellarabi, Wirtz, Adli – Schick
Last matches played by Leverkusen:
1st Bundesliga
12/15 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 2 Hoffenheim
12/12 2021 – Eintracht Frankfurt 5 – 2 Bayer Leverkusen
Europa League Grp. G
12/09 2021 – Ferencvaros 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
1st Bundesliga
12/04 2021 – Bayer Leverkusen 7 – 1 Greuther Fürth
11/28 2021 – RB Leipzig 1 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
Freiburg – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H-balance
These two clubs are set to meet for the 43rd time in the country’s top division on Sunday. With 19 wins compared to 13 draws and ten defeats, Leverkusen lead the direct comparison as expected. Even though the Breisgau side won the most recent direct encounter, taking three points against Leverkusen for the first time since 2017, the Black Forest side are now winless in four home games against the Werkself (0-2-2).
Freiburg – Leverkusen tip
An interesting and exciting match awaits us on the last Bundesliga Sunday of the year. From 15:30 Freiburg and Leverkusen will face each other at the Europa-Park-Stadion. Lower betting odds are offered on an away win for the Werkself, although the bookmakers are also assuming a contested match and are therefore being cautious with the odds.
We are therefore also of the opinion to refrain from betting on the three-way market. Those who do not even want to make a prediction in the direction of a potential winner can, for example, consider the “BTS” or the “Over 2.5”. Especially in the games with the participation of the Rhinelanders, there is actually always a spectacle on offer.
But we consider the bet on the double chance 1X between Freiburg and Leverkusen to be even more promising and “safer”. We are convinced that the Breisgauer, who are playing one of the best first rounds in the club’s history and also have the most stable defence in the Bundesliga, will leave at least one point in their own stadium.
This is also supported by the fact that Bayer recently squandered two 2-0 leads, won only one of their last four away games and will have to do without Moussa Diaby.
