Easy game for Freiburg against tired Eurofighters from Leverkusen?
Sometimes football writes strange and hardly explainable stories. In the Bundesliga, for example, Bayer Leverkusen missed seven of the last eight penalties! It was therefore all the more surprising that the Rhinelanders did not show any nerves at all from the spot on Thursday evening in the second leg of the UEFA Europa League and, thanks to five goals in five attempts, were able to book their ticket to the last 16 after a penalty shootout against AS Monaco.
Although the emotional progress after two gruelling matches against the players from the principality has certainly brought a lot of self-confidence, the energy-sapping 120 minutes including travel to and from the match will of course be felt in the Bundesliga on Sunday.
Because coach Xabi Alonso probably has no other option than to spare one or two key players, the lower odds are offered for a home win between Freiburg and Leverkusen. The 2.25 on the success of the Sport-Club implies a probability of occurrence of 43%.
The home side’s role as favourites, however, is not only due to the potential fatigue of the visitors, but also to the strong home record of Christian Streich’s team. Seven of the ten previous Bundesliga matches in front of their own fans have been victorious.
In addition, Freiburg have won three of the last four direct duels against the Werkself. Should the prediction on the southern Germans come true in the first of two very exciting Sunday matches between Freiburg and Leverkusen, they would definitely preserve their place in the top four.
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
While Bayer Leverkusen or Union Berlin already had to play in the intermediate round of the Europa League on Thursday evening, the protagonists of SC Freiburg could sit back and relax on their couch at home. Because Streich’s team finished the group stage in first place, they are automatically through to the last 16 and have thus saved themselves two knockout games that will take up a lot of substance.
But before Sport-Club return to international action at the beginning of March, they want to keep up the flow in the league. Things have been going pretty well for the Breisgau club lately. After only one point from the first two games in the 2023 calendar year, the SCF won three of the most recent four matches in the second half of the season and thus moved back up to fourth place in the standings, which, as we all know, would entitle them to direct Champions League participation after 34 matchdays.
Without Günter for eighth win in eleventh home match
The fact that Vincenzo Grifo and Co. are already back in very passable form became clear in the previous week. Thanks to their 2-0 win, Freiburg became the first team ever to triumph in the Bundesliga with Thomas Letsch on the bench at VfL Bochum. Apart from that, the Black Forest side went without conceding a goal for the ninth time this season and are now the sole leaders in terms of clean sheets.
The home record is at least as impressive, as coach Christian Streich’s team have won seven of their ten games at the new Europa-Park-Stadion. Moreover, no other first division team conceded fewer goals at home than Mark Flekken (eight). Looking at the Freiburg vs. Leverkusen odds, the chances of the fourth-placed team winning the first and second leg against the Rhinelanders for the first time since 1995/96 are not bad at all.
The only downer is that perennial favourite Christian Günter will have to miss the weekend. Due to a yellow suspension, the international will not be in Freiburg’s starting eleven for the first time since February 2019 (!).
Last matches of Freiburg:
Bundesliga
18/02/2023 – VfL Bochum 0 – 2 SC Freiburg
11/02/2023 – SC Freiburg 2 – 1 VfB Stuttgart
DFB Cup
07/02/2023 – Sandhausen 0 – 2 SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
04/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 5 – 1 SC Freiburg
28/01/2023 – SC Freiburg 3 – 1 Augsburg
Leverkusen – Statistics & current form
For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, the UEFA Europa League offers a welcome opportunity to escape the dreary daily grind this season. Since the Rhinelanders have already dropped out of the DFB Cup and are clearly lagging behind their own expectations in the Bundesliga, a deep run at international level should save them from a disappointing 2023/24 season.
Against this backdrop, it was extremely important that the team’s progress was secured after a penalty shootout in Monaco on Thursday evening. Before that, coach Xabi Alonso’s team had played a decent away game in the Principality, although fatigue set in as the game progressed and Bayer pushed their luck to the limit several times, especially towards the end of normal time and in extra time.
Does a Leverkusen B eleven have to pay tribute to the exertions?
The reason why we are discussing this encounter at the Stade Louis II in such detail is obvious. Some players who had to go for many minutes on Thursday will not be used on Sunday, or only partially.
For example, we would be surprised if Florian Wirtz, a difference-maker who has only recently recovered from a cruciate ligament rupture, is in the starting eleven again. Other frequent players could also get a break, which is why we don’t necessarily want to take the risk of playing the odds on the visitors’ treble between Freiburg and Leverkusen. Diaby has yet to get 90 minutes in the tank after injury, Schick is also coming off a lengthy enforced break. Adli, Hincapie and Tah are suspended.
From a purely statistical point of view, there are of course also arguments that make the pendulum swing more in the direction of the Breisgau side on Sunday. Bayer have lost three of their four second-round matches in the Bundesliga so far, are generally playing their weakest first league season in 17 years and have conceded more defeats away from home (five) than they have won (four). On top of that, they have conceded 19 goals in ten away games and have only scored 14 goals, which makes the task in the Black Forest even more difficult.
Last games of Leverkusen:
Europa League Final Stage
24/02/2023 – AS Monaco (3)2 – 3(5) Bayer Leverkusen
Bundesliga
20/02/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 3 Mainz 05
Europa League Final Stage
17/02/2023 – Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 3 AS Monaco
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Hoffenheim 1 – 3 Bayer Leverkusen
04/02/2023 – Augsburg 1 – 0 Bayer Leverkusen
Freiburg – Leverkusen Direct comparison / H2H balance
We are expecting the 46th meeting of these clubs in the Bundesliga. Leverkusen lead the direct comparison with 20 wins. Freiburg prevailed in twelve encounters; in 13 cases the draw would have been the right choice.
Recently, however, the Werkself has struggled against the Sport-Club. Three of the last four direct encounters went to the Breisgauer, who also won the spectacular first leg in the BayArena with 3:2. Ritsu Doan scored the decisive goal. At the same time, it was the fifth meeting of these two teams in a row in which at least three goals were scored. It is therefore conceivable to make a prediction on the over 2.5 for Sunday’s match between Freiburg and Leverkusen.
Freiburg – Leverkusen Tip
The Bundesliga Sunday has a lot to offer. Starting at 15:30, Freiburg will be looking to make the most of their role as favourites in front of their home crowd, according to the betting odds, and take another step towards the 2023/24 Champions League group stage.
In the first-mentioned match, the odds on a home win offer very attractive value in our eyes. Not only have the home-strong Sport-Club won three of their four most recent direct encounters against the Werkself and also won three of their four second-round encounters, but they have also had a perfect week to prepare for this home match. Leverkusen have 120 minutes in the bones in Monaco and are also finishing their second consecutive English week.
We therefore expect a Xabi Alonso eleven that is changed in many positions and also has to do without three potential regulars suspended. As the priority in the coming weeks will probably be on the Europa League, we are confident that betting on the home side’s success between Freiburg and Leverkusen will pay off.
