Is the SCF defence once again unbreakable?
Both SC Freiburg and 1. FC Köln were in action in Europe on Thursday and neither side could get beyond the draw.
While Sport-Club clinched their ticket to the last 16 of the Europa League by drawing 1-1 with Qarabag Agdam in an energy-saving draw, the Geißböcke were knocked out of the Conference League by drawing 2-2 at home to Nice.
With the Black Forest having lost just one of their last 16 home games against the Effzeh across all competitions, the tendency is for Freiburg vs Cologne to go for Tip 1.
But because the Black Forest side has been particularly convincing defensively of late, we can even go one step further in this match. After all, no Bundesliga team has played to nil as often as Sport-Club (seven times in twelve league games).
Accordingly, there is a lot of value in predicting that the team from Breisgau, which has only conceded four goals at home in the Europa-Park-Stadion and thus has the best home defence in the Bundesliga, will manage another win in front of its own fans. For those who are more concerned with safety, Tip 1 or BTS: No are two coherent alternatives.
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
SC Freiburg were already convincing across the board in the 2021/22 season. In the end, not much was missing for the Black Forest side and they would not only have qualified for the Champions League, but also won their first major title. In the end, however, Sport-Club “only” finished sixth and lost to RB Leipzig in the DFB Cup final.
The performance of the players from Breisgau in the new season, where it would be hard to do any better, is all the more impressive. In the Bundesliga, SCF are in third place, just two points behind leaders Union Berlin. In addition, they have qualified for the last 16 of the DFB Cup, where they are the clear favourites away to SV Sandhausen.
Only lost one of the last 16 home games against Cologne
As if these domestic successes were not enough, the Black Forest side also topped all three of their group opponents internationally. Unbeaten and with 14 out of a possible 18 points, Sport-Club booked their ticket to the last 16 of the Europa League for the first time in the club’s history.
Christian Streich’s side will therefore go into Sunday’s match with a broad chest, as the Geißböcken are a welcome guest at the Europa-Park-Stadion. Ten of the last 16 home games against the Effzeh have been victorious (five draws, one defeat).
The best home defence and the most games to nil in the Bundesliga
At this point, too, the role of the favourites clearly belongs to the SCF, even though the odds are clearly in favour of the home side in the run-up to the clash between Freiburg and Cologne. After all, the Baden-Württemberger have won ten out of twelve points from their last four home games, conceding only one goal.
With a total of four goals conceded at home, the team from Breisgau also has the best home defence in the Bundesliga. And as if that wasn’t impressive enough, the Black Forest side also tops another list: No team in the top flight of German football played to nil more often in the first twelve matchdays than Sport-Club (seven times).
Predicted line-up of Freiburg:
Flekken – Günter – Lienhart – Ginter – Kübler – Höfler – Eggestein – Grifo – Kyereh – Doan – Gregoritsch
Last matches played by Freiburg:
Europa League Grp. G
04/11/2022 – Qarabag FK 1 – 1 SC Freiburg
Bundesliga
30/10/2022 – Schalke 04 0 – 2 SC Freiburg
Europa League Grp. G
28/10/2022 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 Olympiakos Piraeus
Bundesliga
22/10/2022 – SC Freiburg 2 – 0 Werder Bremen
DFB Cup
19/10/2022 – SC Freiburg 2 – 1 St. Pauli
Cologne – Statistics & current form
After finishing seventh in the pre-season and thus qualifying for the UEFA Conference League, 1. FC Köln can also be satisfied overall with their performance so far in the 2022/23 season. The 17 points from a possible 36 attest to the Geißböcken’s best Bundesliga start in six years.
However, the Cathedral City side has been a little off track, especially in recent weeks. Constant bad luck with injuries and the many English weeks have set the Effzeh back somewhat, who have only been able to win two of their last eight competitive games (two draws, four defeats).
Conference League exit despite high morale
After failing in the first round of the DFB Pokal, Cologne’s European adventure has also come to an end for the three-time German champions since Thursday evening. Steffen Baumgart’s team showed a lot of morale in their last group match against OGC Nice and came back from a 2-0 deficit at the break.
However, after the two quick goals to equalise 2:2, the last half hour against the defensively very compact South of France lacked the playful means and also a bit of energy. After such an exhausting game, they now have to travel to Freiburg, who are very strong at home.
The second-worst away defence in the Bundesliga
Even considering that the Effzeh have only won one of their six Bundesliga away games in the 2022/23 season and, with 16 goals conceded away from home, have the second-weakest away defence in the Bundesliga behind Bochum (19), betting on Freiburg against Cologne to win a point in Breisgau is not under a good star.
After all, the Geißböcke recently suffered a major setback in two away games in the Bundesliga, conceding five goals in both Gladbach (2:5) and Mainz (0:5).
Predicted line-up of Cologne:
Schwäbe – Hector – Hübers – Kilian – Schmitz – Skhiri – Huseinbasic – Kainz – Adamyan – Duda – Tigges
Last matches played by Köln:
Europa Conference League Grp. D
04/11/2022 – 1. FC Köln 2 – 2 Nice
Bundesliga
31/10/2022 – 1. FC Köln 1 – 1 Hoffenheim
Europa Conference League Grp. D
28/10/2022 – Slovacko 0 – 1 1. FC Köln
Bundesliga
22/10/2022 – Mainz 05 5 – 0 1. FC Köln
16/10/2022 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 2 Augsburg
Freiburg – Cologne Direct comparison / H2H balance
Head to head: 19 – 8 – 15
There have been a total of 42 duels between the two teams so far and with 19 victories the Sport-Club leads the direct comparison. Especially in the Breisgau, very little has burned for the Black Forest side against the Geißböcke. Freiburg have lost only one of their last 16 home games against the Effzeh.
Freiburg – Cologne tip
While Cologne have been unable to maintain their strong pre-season form beyond their Bundesliga opener, SC Freiburg are still top of the table. The Black Forest side have lost only one of their last 17 competitive games (eleven wins, five draws), have picked up ten of a possible twelve points at home, have the best home defence in the Bundesliga and have played to nil in seven of twelve league games.
On the other hand, the Effzeh have lost four of their last eight games (two wins, two draws) and have the second-weakest away defence in the Bundesliga.
The bet on a home win for the Black Forest team is correspondingly coherent, which in this particular case can even be played as a bet on a win to nil. After all, the players from Breisgau defended too well recently for anything to go wrong after taking the lead against the Effzeh
