Can Freiburg jump to a CL spot for one night?
SC Freiburg are currently chasing a curious record. Since the final phase of the previous season, the Breisgauer have actually missed six penalties in a row in the Bundesliga. The inglorious record is held by BVB, who even failed seven times in a row from 11 meters between 1963 and 1965.
Nevertheless, coach Julian Schuster’s team are still doing well in terms of results. Despite Grifo’s unsuccessful Panenka penalty last weekend, the sports club won 1-0 at the Millerntor and is one of the teams of the hour in the German top flight. Before Friday’s game between Freiburg and Werder Bremen, a bet on the hosts is therefore definitely worth considering.
Particularly in view of the fact that the guests from the Osterdeich have been lagging behind since the beginning of the year and have not been able to build on the strong performances from the first half of the season. To make matters worse, the north Germans have also lost most of their direct duels with their upcoming opponents in the recent past. So any prediction about the rivalry between Freiburg and Werder Bremen should be treated with caution.
This is also underlined by the Freiburg vs. Werder Bremen odds on the three-way market, which, as mentioned, see the club from the Weser, which has slipped to tenth in the table, as outsiders. Meanwhile, the highest odds for a home win can be found in the Interwetten app, which is available as an iOS and Android version.
Freiburg vs. Werder Bremen prognosis AI
The 2.20 offered by the bookmakers for SCF’s home success implies a probability of 44%. For the artificial intelligence, the victory of the sports club is even more likely (47%). This is also underlined by the xG values of 1.46 to 1.03 calculated by the AI lady “BETSiE”, which make the hosts the favorites. In the end, the Freiburg vs. Bremen AI prediction is identical to my assessment that Schuster’s team will keep the three points in the Breisgau.
Freiburg – Statistics & current form
SC Freiburg is the new efficiency champion of the Bundesliga. At least when it comes to pragmatically and concisely adding three points to the account. The Sport-Club has won the last three league games against Bochum, Heidenheim and St. Pauli 1-0 each time, making it the first three Bundesliga matches in a row to be won under Julian Schuster. Three clean sheets in a row are also a new record for the young successor to Streich, who is increasingly stepping into the giant footsteps and is currently on the right track to lead the Black Foresters back into the European Cup.
Freiburg can rely on its home strength
Fifth place in the interim ranking, just one point behind fourth-placed Leipzig, who, as things stand, would secure a direct ticket to the Champions League group stage. This is a nice snapshot, which is all the more surprising given that no other club in the top eleven has scored fewer goals than Freiburg. In the second half of the season, only Heidenheim have scored fewer goals than SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen, which supports the prediction of a rather low-scoring game on Friday evening at the Europa-Park Stadium.
Another approach is to bet on the home win of Vincenzo Grifo, Ritsu Doan and Co. From the previous ten Bundesliga home games, the southern Germans recorded a strong 22 points and thus already as many as in the entire previous season. Seven wins are offset by one draw and only two defeats. On average, only the two championship contenders from Munich and Leverkusen have recorded more points in front of their own fans in their home stadium than the sports club, which is currently playing the third-best Bundesliga season in the club’s history with 36 points.
Considering that they have won four of their last five Bundesliga home games and that Schuster’s team only lost 2-1 to Bayern at home during this period, the odds for the hosts to win the Bundesliga opener of matchday 23 between Freiburg and Werder Bremen are particularly appealing.
Expected Freiburg line-up:
Werder Bremen – statistics & current form
The management at the Weser are extremely satisfied with the work of coach Ole Werner. The longest-serving coach in the Bundesliga after Frank Schmidt and Marcel Rapp has played a major role in the continuous development of the Werder team, which is currently even dreaming of European business again after a few years of absence. The now much more positive perception of the former German champions has not gone unnoticed by the decision-makers, of course, with the result that initial talks about extending Ole Werner’s contract have begun.
Werder must get a grip on the vulnerability before the break
To do some self-promotion or simply to collect arguments for a higher basic salary, coach Werner would be well advised to end the current negative run. Since the turn of the year, Bremen have only won one of seven Bundesliga games. Recently, for the first time this season, they were beaten twice in a row in the league. Above all, the manner in which they lost 3-0 in Munich was not good. The surprising 1-3 defeat at home to TSG Hoffenheim last Sunday was equally due to a certain naivety and a lack of offensive power.
Of course, with just five points from seven matches in 2025, their self-confidence has suffered somewhat, which is why I am not a fan of putting betting odds on the slip between Freiburg and Werder Bremen that aim for a pleasing result for the ninth-placed team. The absences of defensive leader Marco Friedl and midfield engine Jens Stage also weigh very heavily.
If you want to make a risky pick at the end of this exciting encounter, you should keep in mind that SC Freiburg have scored twice in the last two games. In fact, only Holstein Kiel have conceded more goals in the first half (34) than the team from the Osterdeich (24). Only the last four teams in the table were behind more often than the out-of-form Werder team after 45 minutes, who took the break tea in four out of seven cases after the winter break.
Expected line-up of Werder Bremen:
Freiburg – Werder Bremen Head to Head / H2H record
The head-to-head between these clubs must be viewed in a differentiated way. In the overall head-to-head, Werder Bremen clearly leads with 24 wins to 13 losses and ten draws. Recently, however, it has been primarily the Breisgauer who have been able to make their mark on this pairing. Four of the last five BL duels went to the sports club, which was also able to win the last two home games in the Europa-Park Stadium against the guest from the Weser without conceding a goal.
Freiburg – Werder Bremen Tip
For at least one night, SC Freiburg can jump to fourth place in the table on Friday evening. The prerequisite for this would be a home win against SV Werder Bremen, which for a number of reasons is anything but unlikely. With 22 points from ten home games, the Sport-Club is the third-best home team in the league, recently celebrated three consecutive wins for the first time this season and even kept a clean sheet in all three victorious encounters.
On the other side, Bremen are experiencing a minor creative crisis. Five points from seven league games since the winter break correspond to an alarming trend that can be explained by a powerless offense and too many goals conceded. Werder have also lost four of their last five duels against SCF. My Freiburg vs. Werder Bremen betting tip is therefore for a home win.
