Will the Fuggerstadt team’s away misery continue in Breisgau?

FC Augsburg have lost their last six Bundesliga away games in a row across two seasons. No other club in the top flight of German football is currently waiting so long for an away point as the Fuggerstadt team, which is why the tip for the home win of the Black Forest team against Augsburg is of course the logical first option to consider. After all, the FCA holds the red lantern in the Bundesliga with zero points and 0-8 goals in the away table.

Freiburg, on the other hand, have won four of their first six Bundesliga games of the 2024/25 season (two defeats). SCF have only managed this in the 2019/20 and 2022/23 seasons so far. In addition to Freiburg’s strong form, the statistics also favor a home win for the Black Foresters against Augsburg. Freiburg have won ten of their previous twelve Bundesliga home games against the Bavarian Swabians (one draw, one defeat).
It could well be a goal-filled game in the Europa-Park Stadium. Only Kiel (19) and Hoffenheim (16) have conceded more goals in the first six match days than Augsburg (15). Only Bochum, moreover, have been waiting longer for a clean sheet (22 Bundesliga games) than Augsburg (eleven), who are likely to have a tough time avoiding conceding a goal against a rock-solid Freiburg offense that scores an average of 1.5 goals per league game in 2024/25.

We find a lot of value in tip 1, which is why our recommendation is the classic three-way system. A coherent alternative would be the combined bet on the double chance 1X at over 1.5 goals, for which we found odds of 1.47 on the Betway app.

Freiburg vs. Augsburg prediction AI

Supercomputer BETSIE agrees with us that there is some value to be found in the classic three-way system in this duel. After all, the supercomputer puts the probability of a Freiburg home win at 61.81 percent. Meanwhile, the top quote from Intertops is 1.77, which in turn implies a probability of 56.50 percent for the home win of the Black Forest team. With a probability of occurrence valued at over five percent higher, there is thus a pleasingly high positive expected value, so that in the case of Freiburg against Augsburg, the AI forecast reinforces our own assessment.

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

This summer, there was a major upheaval on the coaching bench at SC Freiburg, where long-standing coach Christian Streich resigned. There were many critical voices from Julian Schuster.

Meanwhile, however, the new coach has proven all his critics wrong. The twelve out of a possible 18 points attest to Julian Schuster having by far the best start in the Bundesliga that any Freiburg coach has ever had. In fact, the twelve points achieved from the first six league games were only surpassed in the 2019/20 and 2022/23 seasons (13 each under Christian Streich).

Freiburg is particularly secure defensively

The Black Forest team can now approach the upcoming home game with a corresponding sense of confidence, as they face a kind of favorite opponent. Freiburg’s record against Augsburg is one of the reasons why the tip for the home win for Baden-Württemberg is so auspicious. The sports club has won ten of their last twelve Bundesliga home games in a row against the FCA (one draw, one defeat).

The Breisgauer’s big asset is their stable defense. Only Leipzig (two) and Union Berlin (four) allowed fewer goals than Freiburg (seven) in the first six match days, who, for their part, only scored an average of nine goals, but always came out of the cabin wide awake, especially after the restart.

Only champions Leverkusen scored more goals in the first quarter of an hour after the break (five) than the sports club (four) in the first six match days, and they now face the club that has conceded the highest number of goals in the league in this period, with four…

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

FC Augsburg may not have got off to the weakest Bundesliga start in the club’s history, with seven out of a possible 18 points. Nevertheless, the fact that the Fuggerstadt-based club earned all seven points at home and are still simply a welcome guest away from home is still worrying.

The Bavarian Swabians have not scored a single goal and have been kept eight clean sheets in away games. Across two seasons, coach Jess Thorup’s team have lost all of their last six Bundesliga away games. No other Bundesliga team is currently waiting longer for a goal away from home, let alone for a point.

Augsburg has major defensive deficits

It is therefore no wonder that the odds of the betting providers with a German license are clearly against Augsburg in Freiburg, which, to make matters worse, may also have to do without the injured ex-Breisgauer Keven Schlotterbeck. That would be an extreme weakening in that the 27-year-old defender has already scored seven goals since the start of the 2023/24 season, making him the Bundesliga’s top scorer among central defenders.

However, Schlotterbeck would not only be missed up front, but also at the back, because the Bavarian Swabians’ defense is anything but solid anyway. With newly promoted Kiel (19) and Hoffenheim (16), only two other Bundesliga clubs have conceded more goals than Augsburg (15) in the first six matchdays, and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 Bundesliga games.

Freiburg – Augsburg Direct comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 20 – 10 – 8

A total of 38 meetings have taken place between the two teams so far, and SC Freiburg leads the direct comparison by a clear margin with 20 wins. In particular, there was little on fire for the Black Foresters in the Breisgau region. FC Augsburg has lost ten of its last twelve Bundesliga away games at SCF (one win, one draw).

Freiburg – Augsburg betting tip

All in all, our forecast for Freiburg against Augsburg is quite clearly in favor of a home win for the Black Forest team, who have won ten of their last twelve Bundesliga home games against the Bavarian Swabians (one draw, one defeat). The Sport-Club also got off to an excellent start with twelve out of a possible 18 points, while the Fuggerstadt team are still very reluctant to travel. With zero points and a goal difference of -8, FCA are bottom of the away table and have lost their last six Bundesliga away games.
Although goals are on the cards, primarily due to the Fuggerstadt team’s leaky defense, we find the three-way system offers the best value. We therefore recommend betting on 1 – which, by the way, is exactly what the supercomputer BETSiE is suggesting in its AI prediction for Freiburg v Augsburg.

Betting odds of 1.77 are available for a home win for the Black Forest team in Freiburg v Augsburg, which we are taking up with six units at Intertops.