SGE’s successful Champions League dress rehearsal?
SV Werder Bremen still have no relegation worries in the Bundesliga with a comfortable ten-point lead over the relegation places. However, the Green-Whites have lost five of their last seven league games (two wins), which is why betting on a home win for the SGE seems more realistic ahead of the match between Frankfurt and Werder Bremen.
Moreover, the Hessians have not lost any of their last seven competitive matches against Werder (three wins, three draws). However, the momentum got away from the Eagles last weekend. After seven league games in a row without defeat (four wins, three draws), they suffered a 0:3 defeat in Cologne. Nevertheless, with Frankfurt and Werder Bremen, our prediction goes to the team from the metropolis on the Main.
It is true to say that SV Werder Bremen have been quite convincing away from home. Four of the nine away victories were won by the SVW, which already has as many away victories as in the relegation season 2020/21. However, Eintracht Frankfurt is traditionally strong at home. The Hessians picked up 19 of a possible 30 points at home and have not lost at Deutsche Bank Park since a 1-2 defeat to Dortmund in October 2022.
In our eyes, the bet on a home win for the SGE, for whom this Bundesliga match is also the dress rehearsal for the eagerly awaited Champions League clash with SSC Napoli on Tuesday evening, is correspondingly good to play.
Frankfurt – Statistics & current form
Eintracht Frankfurt have done very well so far in the 2022/23 season to build on their historic Europa League win last summer. The Hessians not only sold themselves very dearly on the international stage once again and reached the last 16 of the Champions League, where they will now face Italian leaders SSC Napoli.
The Hessians have also done extremely well in the Bundesliga so far, winning ten of their 20 league games (five wins, five draws) and, in sixth place, are still within touching distance of the Champions League starting positions. They are currently two points behind SC Freiburg.
Only lost one of the last eight league games
The often moody diva from the Main has been remarkably consistent so far. Oliver Glasner’s team remained unbeaten for seven league games in a row (four wins, three draws) before the run ended last weekend with a 3-0 defeat in Cologne.
In front of their own fans, however, they have won all three of their competitive matches in 2023. In fact, they have won six of their last seven home games (one defeat). The SGE can be correspondingly optimistic going into the league match against Bremen, against whom only one of the last seven competitive matches has been lost (three wins, three draws).
The second-best offence in the Bundesliga
Thanks in part to new signing Randal Kolo Muani, who is currently the Bundesliga’s best provider of assists with twelve and has also scored nine goals himself, the SGE’s chance-taking is remarkably good. With 40 goals, the Hessians are also the second best offensive team in the league.
However, there is no denying that the Eagles overperformed somewhat in the new year. After all, no other Bundesliga team fired fewer shots in 2023 (only 40), while Frankfurt’s Expected Goals value of 4.6 is only undercut by today’s guest from the north (4.3). Nevertheless, the odds are clearly in favour of Eintracht in Frankfurt and Werder Bremen.
Last games of Frankfurt:
Bundesliga
12/02/2023 – 1. FC Köln 3 – 0 Eintracht Frankfurt
DFB Cup
08/02/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 4 – 2 Darmstadt
Bundesliga
04/02/2023 – Eintracht Frankfurt 3 – 0 Hertha BSC
29/01/2023 – Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
26/01/2023 – SC Freiburg 1 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Werder Bremen – Statistics & current form
Verder Bremen had to take the arduous step into the second division in the summer of 2021, where the North Germans were able to rally remarkably quickly after slight teething troubles. As runners-up, they were able to return to the top flight of German football by return of post.
Under promotion coach Ole Werner, the Green-Whites are well on their way to re-establishing themselves in the top flight. Already ten points clear of the relegation places, SVW have nothing whatsoever to do with the relegation battle as they sit in ninth place in the table.
Five defeats in the last seven league games
Instead, it has to be said that Werder could well be in an even better position. However, things have been a little too bad lately to keep up with the top six. The promoted team has lost five of the last seven league games (two wins).
For the Bremen side, too, the cause of the recent yield can be found in their forward play. However, with the lowest xG value of all 18 Bundesliga teams in 2023 (4.3), six goals were scored in the five games in the new year. This makes Leonardo Bittencourt’s yellow suspension all the more inconvenient.
Not as many away points as in 13 years
However, with Frankfurt and Werder Bremen, the tip on a point win for the Green-Whites in the Main metropolis is by no means out of the question. After all, things have gone very well for the SVW away from home. The North Germans have already won four of their nine away games, which puts them in sixth place in the Bundesliga away table.
Werder have already won as many away games as they did in the entire relegation season of 2020/21. The last time the Bremen side managed to surpass the 14 points from nine games away from home was in the 2009/10 season (16).
Last matches of Werder Bremen:
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Werder Bremen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
05/02/2023 – VfB Stuttgart 0 – 2 Werder Bremen
28/01/2023 – Werder Bremen 2 – 1 VfL Wolfsburg
26/01/2023 – Werder Bremen 1 – 2 Union Berlin
22/01/2023 – 1. FC Köln 7 – 1 Werder Bremen
Frankfurt – Werder Bremen Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
Head to head: 43 – 25 – 45
There have been a total of 112 meetings between the two teams so far and with 45 wins, SV Werder Bremen lead the direct comparison by a very narrow margin. SVW have only won one of their last seven competitive matches against Eintracht (three draws, three defeats). In the Bundesliga, however, the North Germans have so far only celebrated more victories against Schalke (46) than against the Hessians (43).
Frankfurt – Werder Bremen Tip
When it comes to Frankfurt and Werder Bremen, our prediction goes to a home win for the SGE despite the North Germans’ good away record. After all, the Adler have won six of their last seven competitive matches at Deutsche Bank Park (one defeat), have only been beaten in one of their last seven duels with the SVW (three wins, three draws) and provide the second-best attack in the Bundesliga.
With Werder having lost five of their last seven league games (two wins), we are betting on a home win for the Hessians, who have lost only one home game against the Green-Whites since May 2009.
