Will France live up to their role as favourites?

In the knockout round of the 2022 World Cup, it comes to a duel between two nations from Europe. The France vs. Poland prediction is very clear in advance, because the French have a good group phase behind them, except for the last game, and have taken six points. In addition, the best possible eleven is now playing again.

The Equipe Tricolore will therefore go into this match as house-high favourites and will try to show who is the better team against Poland right from the start. However, there is no guarantee for the France vs. Poland tip, even though the outsiders were extremely harmless at times in the group stage and had no chance against Argentina. Every game has to be played.

The match will be played at the Al Thumama Stadium, kick-off is at 4 pm on Sunday. The reigning world champions will be looking to progress to the next round, with players such as Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud looking to make their mark.

France – Statistics & current form

France began their mission to defend their title at the 2022 World Cup with a 4-1 win over Australia. The French then played Denmark, a team that can be very unpleasant. Here, too, they managed a victory, albeit a narrow one. The third match against Tunisia, with a lot of rotation in the bag, was narrowly lost 0:1. One should not overestimate this game, at the same time the officials and players were not satisfied with this result.

“We have reached the goal, we will recover, now a second competition begins,” national coach Didier Deschamps summed up the defeat succinctly. And indeed, the group stage is all about progressing. And preferably as group winners. France managed to do that, and they are also unbeaten against Poland for seven games. That could be a very good omen.

The distribution of roles seems to be very clear, France is the better team technically, individually and in terms of play, and also has the better bench, which means that it can improve in every part of the team at any time. That can also be very important in a knockout match, especially as the team is allowed to change frequently. Nevertheless, the French have to reach their performance limit, otherwise it could be unpleasant even against Poland.

France: Mbappe in focus

Before the tournament, Deschamps’ ability to lead the large and good squad was questioned. After all, there have been difficult games for the French in recent months, sometimes the results were not right at all. But it was the offensive that was convincing in the first two games, with a mixture of extra class in the individual area and a lot of work against the ball. Kylian Mbappe, for example, is always getting into finishing positions. He has already tried 16 times, with seven of his shots going straight at goal. Of course, that’s France’s best.

Defensively, there haven’t been too many tests yet, but the French conceded a goal in every game. More emphasis should be placed on balance here, although Upamcano in particular is playing a very good tournament so far. All in all, there is a lot to be said for the French, especially as Poland have been very harmless in their forward play so far. This is also the reason why our prediction before the France vs. Poland match is that not both teams will score goals.

Predicted line-up of France:
Lloris – Koundé, Upamecano, Varane, T. Hernandez – Rabiot, Tchouameni, Dembele, Griezmann, Mbappe – Giroud

Last matches played by France:

World Cup Group D
30/11/2022 – Tunisia 1 – 0 France

26/11/2022 – France 2 – 1 Denmark

23/11/2022 – France 4 – 1 Australia

UEFA Nations League A Grp. 1
26/09/2022 – Denmark 2 – 0 France

23/09/2022 – France 2 – 0 Austria

Poland – Statistics & current form

After a nail-biter of a third group game, the Poles managed to advance to the round of 16. In the end, a 2-0 defeat against Argentina was enough to see them through to the last 16, but the team was not really satisfied. And that applies to the entire group phase. Only five direct shots on goal were taken, which is clearly too few. There was a lack of relief against Argentina, but this will be very important against France.

Consequently, star striker Robert Lewandowski also sees room for improvement: “Qualification is the most important thing. We can still improve a lot before meeting the French – and France are stronger than Argentina.” In two of the three matches, Poland failed to score a goal of their own and even missed a penalty kick. The guarantor of their passage to the knockout rounds was goalkeeper Szczesny, who saved 90% of the shots on goal.

In the first World Cup knockout match since 1986, the Poles want to show improvement. Lewandowski is to be used better, but will also need support, among others from Zielinski. Both worked very well together against Saudi Arabia, but also had more game shares than in a match against a top nation.

Poland: More relief needed

How Poland will manage to get more relief on the field at the same time and then not forget to protect is probably the crucial question in this match against France. Zalewski, with his pace on the left, has to be an option. However, defensively he is a bit shaky at times and would play against Dembele. For Poland, that is certain before the game, everything has to be right for Poland to have a chance.

So a tightrope act awaits Poland. If France offers little, then their quarter-final ambitions look bleak. What’s more, there could be a lot of turnover situations for France, especially if they increase the risk. Therefore, before the France vs. Poland match, our value tip is that the French will win by more than one goal difference.

Predicted line-up of Poland:
Szczesny – Bereszynski, Kiwior, Bednarek – Cash, Krychowiak, Bielik, Zalewski – Zieliński, Kamiński – Lewandowski

Last matches played by Poland:

World Cup Group C
01/12/2022 – Poland 0 – 2 Argentina

26/11/2022 – Poland 2 – 0 Saudi Arabia

22/11/2022 – Mexico 0 – 0 Poland

Friendlies
16/11/2022 – Poland 1 – 0 Chile

UEFA Nations League A Grp. 4
26/09/2022 – Wales 0 – 1 Poland

France – Poland Direct comparison / H2H Ranking

16 matches have been played between the two teams in direct comparison, with France winning half of them. As already mentioned, there have been seven consecutive matches without a defeat against Poland, and in total the French have only lost three matches against this opponent. Once again, odds on a win for the world champions are an obvious option between France and Poland.

France – Poland Tip

France have everything in their own hands and a lot of quality in their squad. The Equipe Tricolore have gone unbeaten seven times in a row against the Polish side, who have only given up five direct shots on goal so far – in the entire tournament.

Because the Poles are relatively harmless and France also bring plenty of quality defensively, we are playing the betting odds before the France vs Poland match that not both teams will score.