France next victim of the defending champions curse?
Since winning the World Cup four years ago, the Equipe Tricolore has somehow completely lost the plot. Despite a squad that is unique in the world in terms of quality, Mbappe and Co. have produced only very poor results on the pitch, especially in 2022.
Nevertheless, the French are naturally among the absolute favourites for the title in Qatar. With a value of around 7.00, the usual betting providers offer the third-lowest odds for a bet on the defending champions to win the tournament. However, we are quite critical of this assessment, because in the history of the World Cup, the previous winner has only been able to triumph again twice.
However, is it worth at least betting on France vs. Australia, the number four in the FIFA world rankings? Very low odds and mixed performances in recent months, as well as some prominent absences, actually make this option completely uninteresting for us. Moreover, the defending champions traditionally have their difficulties at the start of the finals.
While the opponents are certainly not the biggest of the bunch that Deschamp’s men will face in the group stage, the Soccereros are regulars at the World Cup and know how to perform against opponents with a strong game.
Accordingly, we are predicting a relatively close match for France vs. Australia, with the defending champions unlikely to pull off a convincing landslide victory. Which betting options turn out to be promising?
France – Statistics & current form
In six competitive matches, the reigning world champions have picked up just one win. They were unable to beat Nations League opponents Croatia and Denmark in two attempts each. This certainly does not meet the standards of the Equipe Tricolore.
What can the French achieve in their seventh World Cup in a row? They can certainly do a lot, but the omens have been better in the past, because in the last three editions the defending champions were always eliminated in the preliminary round.
Prominent absentees hurt
With Pogba and Kante, the two most important midfield pillars of the World Cup success four years ago are out, there are high-profile, but certainly no equivalent, replacements. Added to this is the bad news, announced at short notice, that Karim Benzema will miss the entire finals. A bitter setback for the defending champions!
The French back line can also be a cause for concern, having only managed to keep a clean sheet twice in eight international matches in 2022, although some of these were against comparably small opponents. They also conceded a goal in their only World Cup encounter with their upcoming opponents.
Opening as a test of strength
We don’t expect a gala performance from the defending champions in their opening match, recent performances have simply been too frothy for that. Nevertheless, with Mbappe, Griezmann, Dembele and Giroud, there are numerous world-class attackers in their ranks, so it’s hard to avoid betting on a goal or two from the Grande Nation in France against Australia.
However, precisely because they regularly score at the back and have only scored more than two goals once in 2022, it seems relatively unlikely to us that they will win by more than one goal.
We are convinced by the betting odds on France vs. Australia for the option HC win away +1.5.
Predicted line-up of France:
Lloris – Panard, Varane, Upamecano, Hernandez – Veretout, Tchouameni – Dembele, Griezmann, Mbappe – Giroud
Last matches played by France:
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 1
26/09/2022 – Denmark 2 – 0 France
23/09/2022 – France 2 – 0 Austria
14/06/2022 – France 0 – 1 Croatia
11/06/2022 – Austria 1 – 1 France
07/06/2022 – Croatia 1 – 1 France
Australia – Statistics & current form
For the men from the other side of the world, the motto ‘to be there is everything’ is probably more applicable, because with France and Denmark, it is actually clear who should make it in Group D.
Nevertheless, the number 38 in the FIFA World Ranking could grab a point or two, as they have already proven to be unpleasant opponents on several occasions in the past.
Opening match as an opportunity
The Soccereros should not be unaware that the defending champions have been in a slump of form lately. With aggression and passion, a lot should be possible. They will rely on English virtues, because the best players of this team earn their money in the British leagues.
McGree, for example, scored for Middlesbrough in the final game before the league break. Maclaren is also the top scorer in the domestic league, so a goal from the underdogs is not too illusory. Nevertheless, there are surprisingly high odds for a bet on both sides to score in France vs. Australia. We see this as a betting invitation.
Scoring in test matches
Anyway, the Australians have proved comparatively accurate in past Test matches as well, failing to score in only one game at the World Cup four years ago. Nevertheless, they have always finished bottom of the group at the last two finals.
Nevertheless, we think that a prediction of a comparatively close match is justified for France vs. Australia. It is possible that an X will be scored, so that the curse of the reigning world champions remains in place. In any case, there have already been a few surprises at various World Cups.
Predicted line-up of Australia:
Ryan – Atkinson, Rowles, Deng, King – Mooy, Hrustic – Leckie, McGree, Boyle – Maclaren
Last matches played by Australia:
Friendly matches
25/09/2022 – New Zealand 0 – 2 Australia
22/09/2022 – Australia 1 – 0 New Zealand
WM Qualifiers. Play-off matches
14/06/2022 – Australia (5)0 – 0(4) Peru
World Cup Qualification AFC 4th Round
08/06/2022 – United Arab Emirates 1 – 2 Australia
Friendly Matches
02/06/2022 – Australia 2 – 1 Jordan
France – Australia Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
The two nations have met five times in total, with Australia claiming their only ever win in a head-to-head encounter just over 20 years ago. Three matches were won by France, and once they parted with a draw.
France – Australia Tip
Even though all odds see the defending champions with a big advantage, we are very sceptical about betting on France vs. Australia. There is hardly anything to be gained due to low odds and traditionally the outgoing world champion has a hard time in the opening match. Accordingly, we do not expect a gala performance from the Gerand nation, which had its difficulties in 2022 anyway.
We are betting on an Australian win with a handicap of -1.5 at odds of 2.05. France may therefore win by a maximum of one goal. We also think it is likely that both teams will score a goal, because the French defence has only been convincing to a limited extent recently.
