Game 1 after Conte: Will Spurs show a reaction?

The Antonio Conte era at Tottenham Hotspur Football Club is over. After the Italian did not hold back with criticism of club officials and players following recent failures, the 53-year-old was relieved of his duties during the international break. He will be succeeded by Cristian Stellini, who previously served as co-coach but has also replaced his former boss in a frontline role on several occasions recently.

It will be interesting to see how the players react to Conte’s departure. Quite a few pundits even believe that Harry Kane and Co. will now return to better form and move back into a better position in the race for the Champions League ranks.

The fact is that Spurs are even being touted as favourites ahead of Monday night’s crucial away game at Goodison Park. It’s not for nothing that betting on the visitors’ treble was given lower odds between Everton and Tottenham.

However, the home side will be determined to avoid defeat, as the Toffees will be looking for important points in their battle against relegation. Recent performances in front of the home crowd are certainly encouraging for coach Sean Dyche’s team, although Liverpool have of course been guilty of much over the course of the entire season.

With that in mind, it’s certainly a bit risky to predict a home win between Everton and Tottenham. At the very least, we trust the visitors from London to win a point. Kick-off is at 21:00 on Monday evening.

Everton – Statistics & current form

For the second year running, the ambitious kickers from the blue part of Liverpool are struggling with relegation fears. After finishing 16th in the final standings last season and thus narrowly managing to stay in the league, there are many indications this season that the Toffees will have to fight to stay in England’s best football league until the very end. The 26 points they have collected so far are currently only enough for 17th place in the table. They are only one point ahead of the relegation zone.

The biggest shortcoming continues to be the unbelievably harmless attack, which has only scored a measly 22 goals. In a league comparison, no other team has scored fewer goals than the Toffees. So it was all the more surprising that Liverpool scored twice in each of their two most recent away games. At Chelsea FC and Nottingham, however, they still only managed one point each.

The upward trend under Dyche is noticeable

But because they won their last home game against Brentford, Sean Dyche’s team is now unbeaten in three Premier League games. In general, there has been a positive development under the new coach, who has been in charge since the end of January and knows the relegation battle in England’s top flight from many years at Burnley.

Eleven points from eight matches under Dyche is by no means a great achievement. But there is hope in the fact that in three of the aforementioned eight encounters they were able to keep a clean sheet defensively. In addition, three of the four home games with the 51-year-old on the sidelines were won – all by 1-0, by the way. The bottom line is that the Toffees have celebrated seven of the last nine home victories with the narrowest of all results.

However, betting on another win for the home side is too risky for us, as the record against the fearful opponents from the north of the capital reads catastrophic. Among other things, Liverpool have won just one of their past 20 league games against Spurs, which is why we suspect the more appealing value between Everton and Tottenham in the odds on the double chance X2.

Last games played by Everton:

Premier League
19/03/2023 – Chelsea FC 2 – 2 Everton

11/03/2023 – Everton 1 – 0 Brentford

05/03/2023 – Nottingham Forest 2 – 2 Everton

02/03/2023 – Arsenal FC 4 – 0 Everton

25/02/2023 –  Everton 0 – 2 Aston Villa

Tottenham – Statistics & current form

Tottenham Hotspur Football Club will not be really happy with the way the season has gone so far. In the Champions League, they were eliminated as fourth in a feasible group, in the two cup competitions, the end was also (too) early and in the league, the Londoners have not been able to take advantage of the weak seasons of Chelsea or Liverpool to their own advantage.

The Lily Whites are still in the all-important fourth place, but Newcastle United are lurking just behind them, two points behind and with two games to play. Nevertheless, the minimum goal of “participation in the 2023/24 top flight” is still within reach. In a bid to breathe fresh air and take away the players’ alibi, the decision-makers reacted to recent developments during the international break by releasing Antonio Conte.

The defence in particular must improve under Stellini

With interim coach Cristian Stellini, things should now go uphill. The long-time assistant already replaced Conte in his absence after the Gallen operation and therefore knows the team very well. The 48-year-old will not take a 180-degree change in approach, although it would not hurt the Londoners if a little more defensive stability could return. In the past five away games in the league, they have conceded twelve goals. Only one of those five matches away from home ended in victory.

The fact that we are nevertheless focusing on the odds on the visitors before the Everton vs Tottenham clash is partly due to qualitative reasons, but also to historical triggers. We can well imagine that some key players will find their way back to their old form after Conte’s dismissal. At the same time, it should not be forgotten that Spurs have not lost for nine matches at Goodison Park.

At least a draw should be possible from the point of view of the fourth-placed team in the table, especially as the slight favourites can also rely on difference-maker Harry Kane. The England captain has already scored 14 goals against the upcoming opponents and only scored more against Leicester than against the Toffees in the Premier League. A whopping six brace already round off his personal tally against Everton.

Last games played by Tottenham:

Premier League
18/03/2023 – Southampton 3 – 3 Tottenham

11/03/2023 – Tottenham 3 – 1 Nottingham Forest

Champions League Final
09/03/2023 – Tottenham 0 – 0 AC Milan

Premier League
04/03/2023 – Wolverhampton 1 – 0 Tottenham

FA Cup
02/03/2023 – Sheffield United 1 – 0 Tottenham

Everton – Tottenham Direct comparison / H2H record

We have addressed the head-to-head several times now. Everton have won only one of their last 20 Premier League matches against Tottenham (nine defeats, ten draws). The Toffees, meanwhile, have been without a home win against the Lily Whites for nine matches, although they have had to settle for a draw in six of the last nine.

The last three meetings at Goodison Park also ended without a winner. In the first leg, however, the Londoners prevailed 2-0 at home thanks to Kane and Hojbjerg. It was the 24th time Tottenham had not conceded a goal against Everton – a record for Spurs in the English top flight.

Everton – Tottenham Tip

The 29th matchday in the Premier League will end on Monday evening with a very interesting as well as exciting match. The Toffees, who have been on the rise lately, will face Spurs at home, who will have Cristian Stellini as their interim coach for the first time since the sacking of Antonio Conte.

Although the home side are now unbeaten in three Premier League games and have won three of their four home games under Sean Dyche, lower betting odds are being offered on the visitors ahead of kick-off between Everton and Tottenham. However, we want to distance ourselves from betting on the three-way market immediately. Too many contingencies complicate a corresponding forecast.

Instead, we combine the double chance X2 with the under 2.5 and get odds of 1.78 for it, which we play on with five units. Spurs have lost only one of their past 20 PL matches against the Toffees and are naturally ranked much higher in the standings. Qualitatively, we also see the guest slightly ahead, especially since some key players could use the exit of Conte as an opportunity to perform better again.

We therefore recommend betting on the X2 between Everton and Tottenham & Under 3.5.