Can the Lions of Teranga challenge the Southgate eleven?
Win or fly – the preliminary skirmish at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar is complete. One bad day could already mean the end of the big World Cup dream, as a result the upcoming knockout games tend to be a touch more defensive.
No team wants to make the first big mistake and run after a deficit. Therefore, the tip for the round of 16 between England and Senegal is that no goal festival is to be expected.
Gareth Southgate’s Three Lions have not been stingy with goals in the preliminary round and have already scored nine times. They won Group B ahead of the USA, Iran and Wales, while Senegal finished second in the host group behind the Elftal and thus qualified for the knockout phase of a World Cup for the second time in the association’s history. Will they make it to the quarter-finals, as they did in 2002? Difficult, because the Africans are considered clear underdogs, between England and Senegal, the forecast for a victory in the regular season of the Lions of Teranga provides odds of over 7.00.
The winner of the match will have a few days rest after the match at the Al Bayt Stadium before the quarter-finals on 10 December. There they will face the winner of France v Poland.
England – Statistics & current form
Together with the Spanish team, the Three Lions became a goal machine in the preliminary round. Gareth Southgate was able to celebrate nine goals, only in the title win in 1966 (eleven goals) and four years ago in Russia (twelve goals) did the motherland of football score more goals in the preliminary round. Captain and top striker Harry Kane has not yet had the chance to score himself, but has instead provided the assist. He is the first English player since David Beckham in 2002 to provide three assists.
With another assist in Qatar, he would become the first English player to make the final pass four times at a major event. Should the Tottenham attacker be allowed to celebrate for the first time, we recommend the bookmaker we tested, Bet365. They offer odds of 2.25 for a goal by Harry Kane in the duel between England and Senegal.
Change without losing quality
Although England didn’t have to bury their title dream until the European Championship final last year, their strong performances in Qatar so far were not necessarily expected. In the recently held Nations League, Southgate’s eleven suffered relegation without a win in six games. There were calls in many quarters for Southgate’s removal, but the FA did not comply.
Success against Senegal would see England reach the World Cup quarter-finals for only the second time in a row, having also done so in 2002 and 2006. The Three Lions’ record in the last 16 of World Cups is as strong as ever. The match against Senegal will be their tenth World Cup quarter-final, with England winning seven of the previous nine. Only in 1998 against Argentina (penalty shoot-out) and in 2010 against Germany (1:4) did England go out at this stage of the tournament.
Slowly but surely, England fans are starting to dream of “football is coming home” again. The squad underlines the role of co-favourites, as Gareth Southgate has an enormous breadth of superstars at his disposal. Phil Foden was in the starting eleven for the first time against Wales and was the standout player along with Marcus Rashford. Rashford scored twice to take his tally to three World Cup goals in 107 minutes of play. Players like Raheem Sterling, Bukayo Saka or Mason Mount even pressed the bench for 90 minutes. England can change without any loss of quality, which makes the Three Lions a hot title contender.
Predicted England line-up:
Pickford – Shaw, Maguire, Stones, Walker – Rice – Rashford, Henderson, Bellingham, Foden – Kane
Last matches played by England:
World Cup Group B
30/11/2022 – Wales 0 – 3 England
26/11/2022 – England 0 – 0 USA
21/11/2022 – England 6 – 2 Iran
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 3
27/09/2022 – England 3 – 3 Germany
24/09/2022 – Italy 1 – 0 England
Senegal – Statistics & current form
20 years ago, Senegal impressed on the big stage for the first time, reaching the quarter-finals on their World Cup debut. Back then, Aliou Cisse played a part in that success on the pitch, and the former professional is now responsible for the success of the Lions of Teranga as head coach. The Africa Cup win at the beginning of the year was the first major title in the association’s history. And now he can also continue the outstanding development at the World Cup, this despite the fact that superstar Sadio Mané is known to be unavailable.
The star is the team
The 30-year-old Bayern player’s absence definitely hurts but is not making itself felt so far. This is due to the fact that the Africans’ offensive game is far more unpredictable as a result. As a superstar, Mané would naturally have been the first point of contact, but without him the other players have to step into the breach – and they are doing so impressively. In the preliminary round, Senegal scored five goals, but not a single player scored twice. This scoring threat spread over several shoulders is definitely one of their strengths. In fact, Senegal’s last ten World Cup goals have been scored by different players.
If the prediction for the underdog victory in the England vs. Senegal clash is the right one, it would be Aliou Cisse’s team’s sixth victory in a World Cup. In fact, it would be a record for the African continent. So far, only the Super Eagles from Nigeria have won six World Cup finals.
However, it would be a big surprise if Cisse’s charges were to progress, and betting companies are offering odds of around 4.00 between England and Senegal for the second quarter-final appearance in the association’s history. The fact that Senegal were the only African team to win a knockout match against a team from Europe in 2002 gives some hope. Back then, Sweden was defeated 2-1.
Predicted line-up of Senegal:
Mendy – Jakobs, Diallo, Koulibaly, Sabaly – Idrissa Gueye, Ciss, Pape Gueye – Sarr, Dia, Ndiaye
Last matches played by Senegal:
World Cup Group A
29/11/2022 – Ecuador 1 – 2 Senegal
25/11/2022 – Qatar 1 – 3 Senegal
21/11/2022 – Senegal 0 – 2 Netherlands
Friendlies
27/09/2022 – Senegal 1 – 1 Iran
24/09/2022 – Bolivia 0 – 2 Senegal
England – Senegal Direct comparison / H2H balance
Premiere – for the very first time the two national teams face each other. Nevertheless, the statistics underline the Three Lions’ role as favourites. England have never lost to an African team at a World Cup (four wins, three draws). Conversely, African teams have mostly lost to European teams in the knockout phase (eight defeats in nine matches). The only exception? Senegal in 2002 with a 2-1 win over Sweden.
England – Senegal Tip
In their third World Cup appearance, Senegal won two World Cup matches in a row for the first time in history. After the success against Qatar, the team put in a spirited performance against Ecuador and was rewarded with advancement. In this duel, the Africans will be clear underdogs and will be hoping for a strong defence. Not many offensive scenes are to be expected, so odds on a draw at half-time are recommended between England and Senegal. In 23 of the 44 matches, there was even a goalless first half.
Senegal can be expected to withstand the English pressure for the time being. Sooner or later, however, the Three Lions should be able to exploit the significantly higher quality, both up front and out wide. This is the reason for our bet on “half-time X/final result England” in the round of 16 between England and Senegal. There is no denying that this is a risk, but betting odds of up to 4.00 offer clear value. A moderate stake of three units is recommended for this.
