Will Mbappé lead his Frenchmen to the semi-finals?
2010, 2014 and 2018 the reigning world champions always failed in the preliminary round. In 2022, this crazy curse has finally come to an end. For the first time since 2006, the title holders of the previous edition have made it back to the last eight. That’s where things really get serious for the French. In the last of four World Cup quarter-finals, the Equipe Tricolore will face the Three Lions, who – along with Portugal – have scored the most goals so far at this World Cup in Qatar.
It is with great anticipation and tension that we look forward to the classic match between two world champions, which kicks off at the Al Bayt Stadium on Saturday evening at 20:00. If you want to place a bet on the three-way market before the duel between England and France, you will find very balanced odds. Nevertheless, the team of coach Didier Deschamps is favoured by a razor-thin margin, which may also be connected to the personnel of Kylian Mbappé.
No other player in the world is dominating the scene as impressively as the 23-year-old Paris St Germain left-winger. Mbappé leads the scoring charts in both Ligue 1 and the Champions League, and has also clearly topped the corresponding rankings at this World Cup finals with five goals.
The positive effect of his individual class on the results of Les Bleus is made clear by a sensational statistic: none of the last 13 World Cup or European Championship matches in which Mbappé was in the starting eleven was lost by the French.
Even better, the quick-as-an-arrow attacker with Algerian roots has started nine World Cup matches for the country of his birth, and the team has won nine of them. Our England vs. France prediction on the outcome of the match will therefore be significantly influenced by the currently most expensive and probably best footballer in the world.
England – Statistics & current form
56 years have passed since an England national team was able to join the elite circle of football world champions for the last and so far only time. After winning the title at the 1966 finals in their own country, they have never won another. Last year, the English failed to reach the final of the pan-European EURO 2021 against Italy, and in 2018 they finished fourth in Russia. In Qatar, the Three Lions now want to take the final step towards the trophy.
So far, this endeavour can be described as quite successful, because with three wins and one draw from four games, the footballers from the motherland of football – in contrast to their opponents from France – are still completely unbeaten on the road.
Apart from that, coach Gareth Southgate’s team has already scored twelve goals in this tournament. Incidentally, England have never scored more goals at a World Cup finals. Also interesting: In total, eight different scorers have been responsible for the aforementioned number of goals.
England’s lousy knockout record against European teams
Despite these very positive numbers and the marked confidence, higher odds are being offered between England and France on Harry Kane and co. to succeed. This could be due, among other things, to the fact that the English revealed problems at times.
Against the US, they were far too harmless offensively in the 0-0 draw, against Iran (6-2) and in the round of 16 against Senegal (0-3), the Lions were sometimes too careless defensively. Against the African champions, for example, the numerous English fans present had Jordan Pickford to thank for the fact that their team did not fall behind in the first 45 minutes.
Another factor that has a statistically negative impact on the 2018 World Cup semi-finalists’ chances is the fact that England have been eliminated by European nations in six of their last eight knockout games at World Cups. In addition, the British have only managed to win one of their recent eight international duels against their upcoming opponents.
Has the knot finally broken for Harry Kane?
In terms of personnel, coach Gareth Southgate, who could become the first coach ever to lead the Three Lions to the semi-finals of two World Cup finals, can almost draw on a full complement. There is still a question mark over Raheem Sterling, who left home early for personal reasons (breaking into his own home). The use of central defender John Stones will also only be decided at short notice.
Nevertheless, we think a change of system is unlikely, even though Southgate, who is often criticised at home, has been happy to use a three-man backline against the top nations in the past. The coach will definitely not do without his attacking front three of Kane, Saka and Foden. Captain Kane has already scored eleven goals in World or European Championships, Saka leads the internal goalscoring list with three goals in this tournament and Phil Foden is a born provider of assists.
Predicted England line-up:
Pickford – Shaw, Maguire, Stones, Walker – Rice, Bellingham, Henderson – Foden, Kane, Saka
Last matches played by England:
WM Final Round
05/12/2022 – England 3 – 0 Senegal
World Cup Group B
30/11/2022 – Wales 0 – 3 England
26/11/2022 – England 0 – 0 USA
21/11/2022 – England 6 – 2 Iran
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 3
27/09/2022 – England 3 – 3 Germany
France – Statistics & current form
Even in the run-up to this World Cup, the French national team was considered one of the top favourites for the title by the bookmakers. This status has not changed until today. Quite the contrary. Behind the Brazilians, the Equipe Tricolore is now even in second place among the hottest contenders for the World Cup trophy. A 5.00 is offered at the top on the successful defence of the title by the Deschamps team.
There are several reasons why the Central Europeans are being offered such good odds by the betting companies. First and foremost, however, is Kylian Mbappé, who was mentioned in the introduction. With five goals and two assists, the young man, who turns 24 two days after the final, is the clear top scorer of this tournament. Sometimes there is even talk of distorting the competition when it comes to his speed on the first few metres or his shooting technique.
Mbappé dominates at will
Despite his young age, the PSG superstar has already been involved in 12 goals in 13 games at World and European Championships. He scored nine times himself and set up three others. It is therefore definitely worth considering the odds on Mbappé scoring in the England vs France quarter-final. Bet365 is currently offering 2.75. Should he score the all-important 1:0 – as he often does – odds of 5.50 are on offer.
In addition to the individual quality of Mbappé, we also see the French as slightly stronger than the English in terms of defence. The back line around goalkeeper and captain Hugo Lloris looks very solid and has only conceded three goals so far in the tournament.
Against Poland it was an insignificant penalty in injury time, against Australia a small lack of concentration in the opening phase and the only defeat against Tunisia is negligible anyway, as world champion coach Deschamps changed his previously victorious team in no fewer than nine positions and thus accepted the defeat in the meaningless last group game.
France love the knockout stages at World Cups
With a view to the quarter-final clash and the matching England vs. France prediction, it should be noted that the French – unlike the Three Lions – have won eight of their last ten World Cup knockout matches against European nations. In addition, the Equipe Tricolore could become only the second reigning world champions to win at least four matches after regular time in the following tournament.
Olivier Giroud, who plays the centre-forward position in Karim Benzema’s absence and is only the second player in World Cup history after Roger Milla in 1990 to score three or more goals in a tournament at the age of 36+, should help, of course.
Coach Deschamps has no reason to change his starting eleven. Tchouameni dusts off as the only six, Kounde defends on the right for the out-of-form Pavard and in attack the whole nation hopes for Mbappé, Dembele, Griezmann and the aforementioned Giroud.
Predicted line-up of France:
Lloris – T. Hernandez, Upamecano, Varane, Kounde – Tchouameni, Rabiot, Griezmann – Mbappé, Giroud, Dembele
Last matches played by France:
WM Final Round
04/12/2022 – France 3 – 1 Poland
World Cup Group D
30/11/2022 – Tunisia 1 – 0 France
26/11/2022 – France 2 – 1 Denmark
23/11/2022 – France 4 – 1 Australia
UEFA Nations League A Grp. 1
26/09/2022 – Denmark 2 – 0 France
England – France Direct comparison / H2H-Balance
Five times the two football nations have faced each other in major tournaments. Only one of these five matches was won by the French. England’s only two victories, meanwhile, have come in their two World Cup duels. In 1966 and 1982, however, the current protagonists were not even born.
A look at the most recent comparisons is therefore more exciting. In 2017, France won 3-2 on a friendly basis in their last meeting to date. It was one of five French victories in the last eight meetings. In the recent past, the pointer has mostly been pointing in the direction of Les Bleus.
England – France Tip
Over the entire 2022 international season, the French and the English have not necessarily been convincing. However, in the Winter World Cup in Qatar so far, the former title holders have delivered. Both teams have won three of their four matches. While England have gone three matches in a row without conceding a goal and have the best attack of the tournament with twelve goals, the French have already suffered one defeat.
Nevertheless, lower betting odds are being offered on the defending champions ahead of the final quarter-final between England and France on Saturday evening. The outstanding knockout record at World Cup finals under Deschamps is just as much an argument as the dominance of Kylian Mbappé, who is also likely to be unstoppable by the Three Lions.
Our first approach is therefore to place a bet on the Equipe Tricolore advancing between England and France. Bet3000 offers an attractive 1.80 at the top, which is worth six units to us. A bet on Mbappé as the goal scorer is also conceivable or the X2 & under 3.5 after regular playing time, which takes many eventualities into account.
