Will the Ecuadorians move past Colombia with a win?
Ecuador was deducted three points in the run-up to the 2026 World Cup qualifiers for a violation of FIFA rules at the last World Cup qualifier. “La Tri” has already compensated for that penalty after three matchdays and has won two of its three qualifiers. The Ecuadorians now round off the international break with a home match against Colombia.
In contrast to “La Tri,” Colombia has yet to lose a qualifying match. After three matchdays, “Los Cafeteros” stand with a record of 1-2-0. Nevertheless, the role as underdogs in the fourth qualifying match is understandable. The last time Colombia hosted Ecuador, they suffered a stinging 1:6 defeat. Our Ecuador vs. Colombia tip is also aiming for a win by “La Tri” this time.
The Ecuadorian national team has not lost a single international match in front of a home crowd since June 2021. It is quite possible that this record will also be extended against Colombia. In that time, Ecuador has defied the likes of Argentina and Brazil at home.
If Ecuador are successful, they can overtake the Colombians. If La Tri’s recent run of form is anything to go by, the FIFA world No. 38 should be confident of a win over Colombia, although Los Cafeteros should not be underestimated.
Ecuador – statistics & current form
Ecuador is still in a captivating form. In the last six international matches, “La Tri” picked up a total of five victories. Only against the Argentine world champions did Ecuador lose out in an exhausting match, narrowly losing 1-0. Since then, however, there have been two victories in a row.
A 2-1 win over Uruguay was followed by a 2-1 victory over Bolivia on the last matchday of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. The winning goal came in stoppage time at the difficult hurdle in Bolivia. Joker Rodriguez actually netted the last-minute goal in the 83rd minute of the match after Bolivia had equalized to make the final score 2-1.
Ecuador now have a total of three points after three matchdays and have climbed to seventh despite being deducted points at the start of qualifying for a violation of FIFA rules in the last World Cup qualifier. It’s possible that Colombia will be their third win in a row at the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.
No home defeat for more than two years
In Ecuador’s favor in the group match against Colombia is above all the home advantage. “La Tri” has not lost a single international match in front of a home crowd since June 2021, after all. In its last nine home games, the Ecuadorian national team has a record of 5-4-0, including point victories against Argentina and Brazil.
In the first and so far only home match of the ongoing 2026 World Cup qualifiers, Ecuador edged Uruguay 2-1. After trailing 1-0, “La Tri” fought their way back into the game and, despite missing a penalty kick, still claimed the comeback victory.
If the next win against “Los Cafeteros” beckons, odds of 2.05 for tip 1 are paid out for Ecuador vs. Colombia. Major changes compared to the last starting eleven are not expected on the part of “La Tri”. The Ecuadorians will again start with their best lineup. National coach Felix Sanchez is spared any major personnel worries during the current international break.
Predicted lineup of Ecuador:
Ramirez – Chavez, Torres, Pacho, Hincapie, Ortiz – Cifuentes, Caicedo – Paez – Valencia, Rodriguez
Colombia – Statistics & current form
Colombia have had a mixed start to their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign so far. Although their opponents have been manageable, “Los Cafeteros” have only managed one win in their first three matchdays. Colombia picked up those three points against Venezuela in the group opener of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers. Since then, they have drawn points against Chile and Uruguay.
In their most recent home match against the sky-blue Uruguayans, Colombia squandered victory in injury time. The Colombians led 2-1 for long stretches, but the Uruguayans dominated the final stages and deservedly equalized after a penalty.
The next setback now looms in Ecuador. Colombia already stumbled in the away matches of the last World Cup qualifiers, picking up just two wins in a total of nine group games on foreign soil. A similar result cannot be ruled out this time around. One of the three defeats Colombia conceded then came in their dismantling of Ecuador (1:6).
Will Colombia go down again in Ecuador?
For the Colombians, the defeat at the Ecuadorian national team was one of the highest international match defeats in the history of the federation. In the two away games before, Colombia prevailed against Ecuador and even kept their clean slate. All the more surprising, therefore, was the clear result (6:1) in the November 2020 showdown.
Those who are leaning towards a win for “Los Cafeteros” this time can pick up odds of up to 3.90 for a corresponding Ecuador vs. Colombia tip on the guests.
Compared to the squad that was last used against Uruguay, no major changes are expected on the side of “Los Cafeteros”. Vargas will be missing after his recent sending off. It is expected that the 34-year-old will be replaced by Álvaro Montero in the box.
Predicted lineup of Colombia:
Montero – Machado, Cuesta, Sanchez, Arias – Uribe, Barrios – Diaz, Arias, Rodriguez – Borre
Ecuador – Colombia Direct comparison / H2H balance
Ecuador and Colombia are meeting for the 49th time overall. After 48 matches, Colombia currently leads the H2h against the Ecuadorians. “Los Cafeteros” have won 23 of those 48 matches. Ecuador won 13 matches, and there were also 12 draws between the two nations.
The last time Ecuador and Colombia met was in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers. In the first round, Ecuador edged out the Colombians 6-1. The second-round duel ended in a goalless draw in Colombia.
Ecuador – Colombia Tip
Ecuador is brimming with confidence at the moment. “La Tri” won five of the last six international matches. Most recently, there were two wins in a row to cheer, which compensated for the defeat in the group opener against Argentina. If Ecuador also wins against Colombia, “La Tri” will catapult itself past the upcoming opponent.
Bets on this are quite obvious. For more than two years, Ecuador has not lost an international match in front of a home crowd. Add to that the fact that the last H2h against Colombia was won 6-1 at home.
With a stake of five units, we therefore dare to bet on a home win for “La Tri” in Ecuador vs. Colombia. The best odds for this are currently offered by Interwetten. It would be the third win in a row for the Ecuadorians. In Ecuador’s last two international matches, bets on over 2.5 goals paid off. A high-scoring encounter can therefore not be ruled out as an alternative betting option against Colombia.
