Will Brazil remain unbeaten in Quito?
There are only four matchdays left in the South American World Cup qualifiers for the finals in Qatar at the end of the year. For the Brazilian national football team, these matches will only be of a statistical nature, because as the undisputed leaders, coach Tite’s team has already punched its ticket to the World Cup.
The Selecao will now take on Quito on Thursday evening. At a host that also has the best chances of qualifying early for the 2022 World Cup. Ecuador, in third place in the standings, already have a six-point lead over the fifth-placed team and have been convincing all along the qualification process so far. Especially at home, “La Tri” is extremely difficult to defeat, which also decisively influences the odds on the three-way market between Ecuador and Brazil.
A surprisingly high 2.25 is being offered for an away win by the record world champions, which on the one hand, as already mentioned, is due to the unpleasant opponent, but on the other hand can also be attributed to the fact that there is nothing at stake for the world number two in the standings. Therefore, it is also associated with a certain risk to make a prediction on the supposed favourites in the top match of Matchday 15 between Ecuador and Brazil.
Ecuador – Statistics & current form
The Ecuadorian national team does not have quite the glorious past at World Cups to show for itself. It took until 2002 before “La Tri” qualified for a final round for the first time. The South Americans also competed in 2006 and 2014, but had to pull out of the preliminary round in two of the aforementioned three participations. In 2018, they finished seventh out of ten teams in the CONMEBOL qualifiers.
It is therefore all the more surprising that the team, which has no real stars but has its two most valuable players in 20-year-old Piero Hincapie from Bayer Leverkusen and 24-year-old Pervis Estupinan from Villarreal, is ranked third in the table behind Brazil and Argentina in the current qualifiers. 23 points from 14 games is an impressive haul that definitely could not have been expected in this form.
Ecuador are a real force at home
Ecuador, number 46 in the FIFA World Ranking, were particularly convincing at home in Quito. Five of their seven home games were victorious. The only defeat came in a 2-1 loss to Peru at the beginning of June. No other team has scored as many goals at home as the team of Argentine head coach Gustavo Alfaro.
The strong home attack (17 goals in total) was by no means at the expense of their own defence, which has a more than acceptable average of five goals conceded. In the last four qualifying matches in the Ecuadorian capital alone, the surprise team always went without conceding a goal. In 2021, in eight of the ten matches involving the “tricolours” in the South American qualifiers, the bet would have been on “Do they both score? – No” would have gone through. We are aiming for the same approach again, so the odds for the corresponding tip between Ecuador and Brazil seem quite interesting.
Predicted line-up of Ecuador:
Dominguez; An. Preciado, Torres, Hincapie, Estupinan; Franco, Mendez, Caicedo, Ay. Preciado; Estrada, Valencia
Last matches played by Ecuador:
Friendly match
12/05 2021 – El Salvador 1 – 1 Ecuador
World Cup – Qualifier CONMEBOL
11/17 2021 – Chile 0 – 2 Ecuador
11/11 2021 – Ecuador 1 – 0 Venezuela
Friendly
10/28 2021 – Mexico 2 – 3 Ecuador
World Cup – CONMEBOL qualifier
10/14 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Ecuador
Brazil – Statistics & current form
The Brazilian national team is hovering above all other selection teams in the current World Cup qualifying campaign, dominating CONMEBOL action at will. 13 games, eleven wins and two draws underline the supremacy of the record world champions in South America. The Tite team scored the most goals (27) and conceded the fewest (four).
However, anyone who believes that Neymar and Co. have all won by clear margins is mistaken when they look at the results. Only two of the eleven victories mentioned above were by more than two goals. On several occasions, the world number two even struggled to win, although in the end it was mostly the defence that withstood the pressure.
Is Ecuador bouncing off Brazil’s defensive wall?
The Selecao have kept a clean sheet in 11 of their 13 matches. It is therefore quite interesting to predict that at most one of the two teams will score on Thursday evening between Ecuador and Brazil. Another argument is that the 2021 Copa finalists also failed to score in the two matches they did not win.
The bottom line is that in only four of Brazil’s 16 international matches last year did both teams score a goal. Another exciting fact is that in four of the past five qualifying matches, the Tite team failed to score in the first 45 minutes. It is therefore quite possible that we will also be faced with a goalless first half on Thursday evening.
Finally, it is worth pointing out that the situation ahead of the upcoming match is different, as we know that the leaders have already secured a direct ticket and may take a more relaxed approach to the upcoming qualifiers. However, the fact that the Brazilians are desperate to maintain their momentum and are also looking to Dani Alves and Philippe Coutinho, two returnees, to write their credentials for the World Cup squad speaks against this. Not nominated, however, are Roberto Firmino, Richarlison and the injured superstar Neymar.
Predicted Brazil line-up:
Alisson; Dani Alves, Marquinhos, Silva, Sandro; Pacueta, Casemiro, Fred; Raphinha, Jesus, Vinicius Jr
Last matches played by Brazil:
World Cup – CONMEBOL Qualifiers
11/17 2021 – Argentina 0 – 0 Brazil
11/12 2021 – Brazil 1 – 0 Colombia
10/15 2021 – Brazil 4 – 1 Uruguay
10/10 2021 – Colombia 0 – 0 Brazil
10/08 2021 – Venezuela 1 – 3 Brazil
Ecuador – Brazil Direct Comparison / H2H Balance
Because the Ecuadorians are still one of the younger national teams in the South American Football Federation and CONMEBOL qualification has only been transferred to the current format since the turn of the millennium, there have only been eleven meetings in World Cup qualifying matches so far.
With seven victories, the Brazilians clearly lead the direct comparison, although “La Tri” has also won twice. There have also been two draws. The underdogs also managed a 1-1 draw against the eventual finalists in the preliminary round of the Copa America 2021, although the Selecao won the first leg of the qualifiers 2-0. Since 2007, the Brazilians have gone seven out of ten matches against the Ecuadorians without conceding a goal. Will that trend continue on Thursday?
Ecuador – Brazil Tip
South American World Cup qualifying is entering the home stretch. Four match days are still to go and only two teams, Brazil and Argentina, have punched their ticket to the finals in Qatar. The next team that could fix the successful qualification is Ecuador. With games against the record world champions and Argentina, however, “La Tri” still has some tough challenges ahead of them.
The current third-placed team does not need to hide at all, however, as coach Alfaro’s team has won five of its seven home games. 17 goals underline their attacking drive, which, combined with a solid defence, has already caused extreme problems for many a visiting team. The match in Quito will not be a foregone conclusion for the Selecao either. It is therefore not advisable to make any predictions about the outcome of the match.
A more exciting bet between Ecuador and Brazil is that at most one of the two teams will score. The bet “Will they both score? No” would have paid off in twelve of the world number two’s 16 international matches last year. The Ecuadorians have also not conceded a goal in seven of their ten 2021 qualifiers and have won all four of their most recent home matches by a clean sheet.
