Can the Blackies pull off the next surprise?
Four national champions can still fulfil their dream of the 2022/23 Champions League, plus there are also two teams that can secure their ticket via the placement route. Among others, the Austrian runners-up from Styria are hoping for the big coup. In the first leg of the third (of four) qualifying rounds, the Blackies have to play on a neutral field. In Lodz, Poland, Dynamo Kiev and Sturm Graz face each other
Due to the situation at home, Mircea Lucescu’s team must continue to compete in exile and forgo home advantage. But not only the lack of home advantage, but also the lack of match practice are a big handicap for the Eastern Europeans. That is why the bookmakers even see the Austrians with a slight advantage in the knockout duel between Dynamo Kiev and Sturm Graz according to the current betting odds. For the Graz team to advance to the next round, the odds are 1.70, while for Kiev the odds are more than double that.
Despite the difficult conditions, the Ukrainians should not be underestimated. After all, they brought Fenerbahce Istanbul to their knees in the last round. Can they pull off the next coup? The first leg in Lodz, Poland, kicks off at 8 p.m. on Wednesday evening.
Dynamo Kiev – statistics & current form
The situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious, yet some normality is expected to return in the coming weeks. As things stand, the resumption of regular matches on the national stage is planned, although the exact schedule has not yet been fixed. The situation in large parts of the country is still too confusing for that.
Big bloodletting due to FIFA regulation
The matches against Fenerbahce Istanbul were Dynamo Kyiv’s first two competitive games of the year. The Russians’ war of aggression began shortly before the actual start of the second half of the season. The contracts of the foreign players were declared null and void by FIFA and thus quite a few players were able to find a new club outside the regular transfer window.
Dynamo Kiev may not have such a strong Brazilian faction as their great rivals Shakhtyor Donetsk, but the team of 77-year-old head coach Mircea Lucescu also suffered a major bloodletting. Almost all of the legionnaires have turned their backs on the club, leaving the Ukrainian top club with almost only home-grown players at its disposal. One of the last legionnaires to leave the club was Benjamin Verbic from Slovenia, who played in both matches against Fenerbahce.
With players like Viktor Tsygankov (winger), Ilya Zabarnyi (centre-back) or Mykola Shaparenko (central midfield), the traditional club has enormous individual quality that cannot be found to this extent at the Blackies. The opportunity to offer their compatriots a little distraction with successful football is certainly also a great motivation, but the accompanying circumstances nevertheless ensure that betting on the Ukrainians in Dynamo Kiev v Sturm Graz is refrained from.
Predicted line-up of Dynamo Kiev:
Bushchan – Dubinchak, Popov, Zabarnyi, Kedziora – Sydorchuk, Shaparaenko – Garmash, Buyalskyi, Tsygankov – Besedin
Last matches played by Dynamo Kiev:
Friendly club matches
30/07/2022 – Everton 3 – 0 Dynamo Kiev
Champions League Qualifier
27/07/2022 – Fenerbahçe 1 – 2 Dynamo Kiev
21/07/2022 – Dynamo Kiev 0 – 0 Fenerbahçe
Friendly club matches
16/07/2022 – Antwerp 2 – 1 Dynamo Kiev
13/07/2022 – Lyon 3 – 0 Dynamo Kiev
Sturm Graz – Statistics & current form
After a disappointing start to the league, Red Bull Salzburg were guests at the Merkur Arena last weekend. Last season’s runners-up were threatened with a disappointing start to the season. However, as in the last top match of last season, the Ilzer eleven once again kept the upper hand against the bulls from the city of Mozart. The outstanding man on the pitch was the young Danish striker Rasmus Höjlund, but the entire team deserves special praise for an outstanding performance and a well-deserved victory against the seemingly overpowering Bullen.
Aggressive and quick switching play
What Christian Ilzer has formed out of Sturm Graz in the last 13 months is worthy of all honour. Compared to the performances from the finish of the 2021/22 season, an increase in performance of several classes can be seen. Ilzer, who himself failed to shine with Wiener Austria in 2020/21, is shining in his Styrian home.
The Graz team follows a clear playing philosophy and practices a refreshing offensive football with fast switching play when the ball is won. The aforementioned Rasmus Höljund will probably not be kept for long, with his style of play reminiscent of a certain Erling Braut Haaland in many areas. Good body, extreme speed and ice-cold when finishing – Höljund is also the big hope against the Ukrainians.
Managing Director Sport, Andreas Schicker, sees his team in the clear underdog role and puts the Ukrainians clearly above the Blackies. With this understatement, the Grazers try to push the pressure off themselves. From a sober point of view, a team that beats Salzburg is also capable of defeating Kiev. Moreover, the Ukrainians are far more pleasant for the young Graz team to play against than the witch’s cauldron in Istanbul. In the first leg between Dynamo Kiev and Sturm Graz, the odds at Draw No Bet 2 are extremely interesting with a 2.50.
Predicted line-up of Sturm Graz:
Siebenhandl – Dante, Affengruber, Wüthrich, Gazibegovic – Prass, Gorenc-Stankovic, Hierländer – Horvat – Höljund, Sarkaria
Last matches played by Sturm Graz:
Bundesliga
31/07/2022 – Sturm Graz 2 – 1 RB Salzburg
Friendly club matches
26/07/2022 – Sturm Graz 4 – 0 Al-Wahda
Bundesliga
24/07/2022 – Wolfsberger AC 1 – 1 Sturm Graz
Cup
16/07/2022 – Röfix Röthis 0 – 6 Sturm Graz
Friendly club matches
10/07/2022 – Sturm Graz 2 – 1 Galatasaray
Dynamo Kiev – Sturm Graz Direct comparison / H2H-balance
In fact, the first leg in Lodz, Poland on Wednesday night will not be the first meeting between the two clubs. However, the only encounter so far is not necessarily a yardstick for the current knockout duel. In 2018, the two teams faced each other in a friendly match, which Sturm won 2-0. While Sturm’s only other knockout victory came against Metallist Kharkiv in 2009/10, Dynamo Kiev have far more experience with Austrian teams. In 17 other attempts, the Ukrainians celebrated twelve victories (two draws, three defeats).
Dynamo Kiev – Sturm Graz Tip
For Kiev coach Mircea Lucescu, the clash against the Blackies will be a trip down memory lane. The last time Graz were represented in the Champions League group stage – 2000/01 season – the Romanian was coach at Galatasaray Istanbul and remained winless in both matches against Graz. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian top club is considered the favourite, but between Dynamo Kiev and Sturm Graz, a prediction on the home side seems too risky. Fenerbahce Istanbul were clearly superior, even when shorthanded, but Kiev were ice cold.
The long break, the reduced quality and the lack of home advantage are all arguments that do not speak in favour of the home side. Moreover, Sturm Graz put a strong exclamation mark on their performance with a well-deserved win against the Austrian serial champions Red Bull Salzburg. The Bullen are definitely stronger than Dynamo Kiev. The direct bet on the away win is certainly risky, but odds of up to a 2.50 for the Blackies are highly interesting in the “Draw No Bet” between Dynamo Kiev and Sturm Graz. Five units are used as stake for this bet.
