Does the insecure BVB have to fear for progression after all?

The BVB fans were horrified after the poor performance in Bochum on Saturday afternoon. The black and yellow team, bottom of the Bundesliga table, lost 0:2 and thus lost sight of the European Cup places even further.

The inexplicably weak performance in the small Ruhr derby came as a surprise, given that Borussia made a giant step towards the Champions League knockout stage just four days earlier. Thanks to the 3-0 win in Portugal, nothing should stand in the way of Kovac’s team making it through to the second leg against Sporting Lisbon in Dortmund.

However, this supposedly decided initial situation could lead to the hosts subconsciously losing their concentration or the guests playing freely and carefree. In view of the many eventualities, it is therefore complicated to make a prediction on the three-way market between Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon. Instead, it might be wise to consider betting on over-goals.

Those who, despite BVB’s impressive CL home record, still believe that Rui Borges’ young team can pull off an away win at Signal-Iduna-Park can find odds of 3.80 on the Bet365 app before the second game between Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon.

Dortmund vs. Sporting Lisbon Prediction AI

“BETSiE” predicts an xG value of 1.90 for the home side and 1.36 for the visitors from Portugal. In total, the artificial intelligence believes in 3.26 goals, so that the Dortmund vs. Sporting Lisbon AI prediction even aims for over 3 goals. As an Asian bet, which guarantees cashback on exactly three goals, a 2.10 is offered at Bet365.

Dortmund – statistics & current form

Last season, Borussia Dortmund managed to mask a disappointing season overall at national level with impressive performances in the Champions League. In 2023/24, the black and yellow went all the way to the final for the trophy, as is well known. In the current year, BVB is also usually presenting itself in a very different light in the European Cup than in the Bundesliga.

The team from the Ruhr region, which is currently in crisis, has earned a lot of praise for its tenth place with five wins from eight games and the second-highest number of goals scored in the league phase. On Wednesday evening, the international season is to be extended by at least two more matches if the team advances to the last sixteen. The chances are outstanding, because after the 3-0 win from the previous week, for example, the German bookmakers have already removed the betting odds from the range for the second leg of Dortmund against Sporting Lisbon due to the one-sided situation.

Dortmund’s home record in the Champions League is impressive

Considering the fact that Borussia won only three of ten competitive games after the winter break and that the coaching effect of Niko Kovac has long since fizzled out since the 2-0 defeat at Bochum at the weekend, it does not really seem advisable to make a prediction about home success between Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon. On the one hand, the 1.95 from the Betway app does not offer any value. On the other hand, the BVB professionals do not necessarily have to play for victory. Even a defeat by two goals would be enough for them to advance.

Although last year’s finalist has only lost one of the last 15 CL home games (10-4-1) and has always secured progression in the last eleven knockout rounds in which the first leg was won, my tendency on Wednesday evening is still more towards an over-bet with slight advantages for the guests.

In BVB’s four home CL matches in the league phase, a whopping 18 goals were scored, an average of 4.5 per game. Only Bayern and Barcelona scored more goals at home than Guirassy and Co. Incidentally, the summer signing from Stuttgart was involved in 13 CL goals this season (ten goals, three assists). However, the potent offense is also offset by a certain defensive vulnerability.

In the eight-match preliminary round, there were also twelve goals against. In the first leg a week ago, Kovac’s team should not have complained about being behind in a weak first half either. So for Wednesday I expect another game with a relatively high number of goals.

Predicted line-up for Dortmund:

Sporting Lisbon – statistics & current form

There are probably few clubs in European football that have as many highly rated and hotly sought-after talents as Sporting Lisbon. Players like Diomande, Debast, Quenda or Harder are on the radar of almost all top teams in England, Spain or Italy. Even the mid-20s like Gyökeres, Hjulmand or the currently injured Pedro Goncalves can more or less pick their next employer.

However, the fact that the undoubted potential does not automatically lead to a deep run in the Champions League became clear last week. The Lions, who, at 24 years and three days, have fielded the youngest starting eleven of all top 24 clubs in the competition so far, paid dearly despite a courageous first half and lost 3-0. Top-class scoring chances went unused in the first 45 minutes, so that after the break, a short phase of pressure from Borussia was enough to bring about a preliminary decision.

Sporting is hoping for a quick goal and a special momentum

The “youthful recklessness” that can be inferred from this is, in my opinion, also an important argument that tips the odds in favor of over-goals on Wednesday evening between Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon. The team of coach Rui Borges will definitely not lack courage, commitment and a willingness to take risks in the Ruhr area.

This could either lead to the green-whites literally taking unsettled BVB by surprise in the opening phase, or the Portuguese could run into an open goal in front of the opposing crowd, as they will have to seize the initiative from the outset. In my opinion, both possible scenarios increase the likelihood that the almost 80,000 spectators in the Westfalenstadion will see a lively game with plenty of ups and downs.

It is also conceivable that the Lisboners will not only score at least one goal, but will also not leave the pitch as losers. Although various statistics claim the opposite and the Lions have lost four out of five Champions League games after Amorim’s departure (0-1-4), a high 2.70 can be tapped via the Bet Bet for the double chance X2 with both teams scoring. If successful, the duration of the payout at Betano will also be kept to a minimum.

Expected line-up for Sporting Lisbon:

Dortmund – Sporting Lisbon head-to-head / H2H record

As already mentioned, the 3-0 first-leg result should not hide the fact that Sporting Lisbon actually dominated the first half and should have gone into the break with a lead. After the break, BVB showed a different side, took advantage of the home side’s defensive weaknesses and won 3-0 thanks to goals from Guirassy, Groß and Adeyemi. It was Dortmund’s fourth victory in the fifth direct duel. In Germany, Sporting has now lost 12 out of 14 European Cup matches.

Dortmund – Sporting Lisbon Tip

Only the most optimistic and biggest Sporting supporters still believe in the miracle of Dortmund on Wednesday evening. In fact, statistically, there is nothing to suggest that the Portuguese will make up for the 3-0 defeat in the first leg at home in the Signal-Iduna-Park. BVB have only lost one of their last 15 CL home games, Sporting are waiting for a win in the premier class after Amorim’s departure at the beginning of November, and the miserable record of the green-and-white lions in away games in Germany also tips the balance clearly in favor of Borussia.

After the disastrous performance of the black and yellow in Bochum and with reference to the impressions from the first half of the first leg, I nevertheless refrain from betting in the direction of the Bundesliga club and instead push for an Over 2.5 goals tip between Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon.

The young guest team will have to play for a win, which suggests a game with a lot of goals, especially in view of the defensive vulnerabilities both teams have shown recently.