The Revierderby is back!

574 days the fans in the Ruhrpott had to be patient. This coming Saturday, the time has finally come again. The mother of all derbies between Borussia Dortmund and FC Schalke 04 is on the agenda. Exactly 82 weeks after the last encounter in the Bundesliga, a lot has changed: War is raging in Europe, a litre of diesel costs well over two euros in Germany and watering grass pitches is no longer permitted in many municipalities due to a water shortage.

One thing, however, has definitely remained the same. Then, as now, BVB is the clear favourite in the Revierderby against the Königsblauen. Incidentally, the betting providers also see it that way. The odds for a home win between Dortmund and Schalke are currently even below 1.40, which corresponds to an implied probability of over 70%.

However, it is also clear that derbies are governed by their own laws and the Gelsenkirchen side will naturally do everything in their power to pull off a surprise coup at Signal Iduna Park on Saturday afternoon. Even a point would be considered a success from the Knappen’s point of view.

It is doubtful, however, whether pure will will ultimately be enough to compensate for the differences in quality. After two bitter defeats in Leipzig and at Manchester City, the Black and Yellows are desperate to get back on track and win their fourth derby against S04 in a row.

Coach Frank Kramer’s guests, however, will travel the 30 kilometres via the A40 with a broad chest. Four points from the last two games are a clear sign of an upward trend, which has propelled the promoted team to twelfth place. Nevertheless, there are still more arguments in favour of a prediction in the direction of Terzic’s team between Dortmund and Schalke.

Dortmund – statistics & current form

For just under 80 minutes on Wednesday night, it looked as though Borussia Dortmund could indeed take all three points from the Etihad Stadium at English champions Manchester City. Thanks to a concentrated defensive performance and good pinpricks in the transition game, BVB was leading 1-0 before the Citizens’ final offensive, before John Stones and Erling Haaland turned the match in Guardiola’s favour.

Nevertheless, coach Edin Terzic and his team were able to draw important conclusions from this match. The reaction to the 3-0 defeat in Leipzig was very positive. At the same time, however, it became clear that the strength at the highest European level is not yet sufficient for 90 minutes. Nevertheless, hardly anyone would disagree if we put Borussia in the favourites’ role after this performance in the Revierderby against S04.

Nevertheless, caution should be exercised from the Schwarz-Gelb’s point of view, after all BVB has lost its last two home games against promoted teams. In the pre-season, they lost 3:4 against VfL Bochum, and a few weeks ago they suffered a memorable 2:3 defeat against Werder Bremen. Never before in the club’s history have there been three defeats in a row against newly promoted Bundesliga teams. That’s where it should stay, of course.

Dortmund still need too many chances

In addition, there is still room for improvement when it comes to converting scoring chances. Anthony Modeste and Co. have already had 15 top-class chances, but only two of them have been converted into goals (13%). No other Bundesliga team is more ineffective in this respect than the reigning runners-up.

Nevertheless, we prefer a tip in favour of Terzic’s team between Dortmund and Schalke. Schwarz-Gelb have won all three of their last derbies. Four times in a row, they even went without conceding a goal. In addition, there is the traditional home strength and the qualitative advantages, which cannot be denied.  In terms of personnel, there is also improvement in sight. Adeyemi and Malen celebrated their long-awaited comeback on the island during the week. Only Bynoe-Gittens, Kobel, Dahoud, Morey and Haller remain in the hospital.

Coach Terzic, who celebrated his highest victory as a Bundesliga coach in February 2021 against the Gelsenkirchen team (4:0), is spoilt for choice in any case. Probably one of the trio Hummels/Süle/Schlotterbeck will have to sit on the bench again for the time being. However, the football coach will not be without his captain Marco Reus, who is about to play his 250th Bundesliga game for Borussia and has been involved in all four home goals so far this season.

Predicted Dortmund line-up:
A. Meyer – Meunier, Süle, Hummels, Guerreiro – Bellingham, Özcan – Brandt, Reus, T. Hazard – Modeste

Last matches played by Dortmund:

Champions League Grp. G
15/09/2022 – Manchester City 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – RB Leipzig 3 – 0 Borussia Dortmund

Champions League Grp. G
06/09/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 3 – 0 FC Copenhagen

Bundesliga
03/09/2022 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 Hoffenheim

27/08/2022 – Hertha BSC 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund

Schalke – Statistics & current form

A bit of calm has returned to FC Schalke 04 in the last two weeks. After a mixed start to the season with only two points from the first four games and the hefty 1:6 home defeat against Union Berlin, the Gelsenkirchen side seems to have stabilised somewhat of late. The 1-1 draw in Stuttgart was already a first small step in the right direction, which was confirmed by the 2-1 home win against Bochum the previous week.

Despite this upward trend in terms of points, it should be noted that the opponents were nowhere near the calibre of the arch-rivals from Dortmund. Moreover, Kramer’s team has not yet been able to convince with its footballing skills. But the standards are a real weapon. With five goals, only FC Bayern (six) is more dangerous than S04 after a dead ball.

31 away games and counting…

The fact that it will still take a minor football miracle to score at Signal Iduna Park on Saturday afternoon is underlined on the one hand by the one-sided distribution of Dortmund vs Schalke odds on the three-way market and on the other hand by the continuing drought away from home. The Knappen have now failed to win a pitiful 31 away games in a row in the top flight.

On balance, therefore, we would not put too much stock in the recent results of the promoted team and instead give greater weight to the subjective feeling that Schalke are far from being a stable team that can contemplate a single-digit place in the table. However, because coach Frank Kramer is by nature someone who prioritises working against the ball, it can at least be assumed that the Königsblauen will not allow themselves to be shot down.

Coach Kramer can almost draw from a full complement

But that, in turn, does not mean that the Gelsenkirchen side, who are aiming for two consecutive Bundesliga wins for the first time since November 2019 (!), will not lose by at least two goals difference. Both previous defeats to Cologne and Union Berlin were clear-cut and, as already mentioned, they have also failed to score a goal of their own against BVB in four derbies in a row.

It is therefore conceivable to bet on the -1 handicap win of the favourite or to combine the home win with a maximum number of four goals in the course of the match. With the exception of Kaminski, all players are ready for action. Should Brunner unexpectedly not be available, Matriciani would move into the starting eleven.

Predicted line-up of Schalke:
Schwolow – Matriciani, van den Berg, Yoshida, T. Mohr – Krauß, Flick – Drexler, Bülter – Terodde, Polter

Last matches played by Schalke:

Bundesliga
10/09/2022 – Schalke 04 3 – 1 VfL Bochum

03/09/2022 – VfB Stuttgart 1 – 1 Schalke 04

27/08/2022 – Schalke 04 1 – 6 Union Berlin

20/08/2022 – VfL Wolfsburg 0 – 0 Schalke 04

13/08/2022 – Schalke 04 2 – 2 Gladbach

Dortmund – Schalke Direct Comparison / H2H Balance

Since the founding of the Bundesliga, the two clubs from the Pott have met in 98 encounters. With 36 wins compared to 30 draws and 32 defeats, BVB still has the edge. In the current millennium, however, the Königsblauen have celebrated more successes (15) than their rivals (twelve).

In the more recent past, however, the pointer has tended to point more in the direction of BVB. The last three duels were all won by Dortmund, who also went four times in a row without conceding a goal against S04. Incidentally, the mother of all derbies usually offered plenty of spectacle. More than three goals were scored on average in the 98 matches between the arch-enemies. In the last four home games against the Knappen alone, Borussia scored an incredible 13 goals.

Dortmund – Schalke Tip

After a year’s forced break, Germany’s most electrifying derby returns! FC Schalke 04 are the guests at Dortmund’s Westfalenstadion on Saturday afternoon from 15:30. The starting position before this explosive duel of arch-enemies is relatively clear. Anything other than a home win for the reigning runners-up against the promoted team would be a big surprise.

While the Knappen will certainly be hoping that BVB have lost some of their substance at the end of the second English week in a row and do not have their best day, Edin Terzic will be looking to build on the good 80 minutes against Manchester City and, after two consecutive defeats in competitive matches, will be desperate for a sense of achievement. Should he succeed, Dortmund and Schalke are offering betting odds of no more than 1.39 on a home victory after 90 minutes.

As we assume that the home side, who are clearly stronger in terms of quality, will win the match, we have decided to bet on a -1 handicap win for the Black and Yellows in the Dortmund vs Schalke derby. For a home win with at least a two-goal lead, a more than respectable 1.98 is available from the tested bookmaker Betano.

Other betting alternatives refer to a possible goal by the jubilarian Marco Reus, who is playing his 250th Bundesliga game for Borussia and has always had his feet in the goals in the home games lately. Or else on a home win including a maximum of four goals in the course of the game. In fact, we think a 2:0/3:0/3:1 win is the most likely outcome on Saturday.