Who will score the big point in the title race?
It’s 30 January 2004: Ailton scores for FC Schalke 04 in a 1:0 derby win at Borussia Dortmund. To this day, that defeat against their rivals was the last one BVB suffered in the Bundesliga on a Friday night in their own stadium.
32 Friday night games in a row Borussia have not lost in the German top flight. The statistics freaks with black-and-yellow club glasses will therefore not be entirely unhappy that the top match against RB Leipzig will also take place on the last working day of the week and at the start of the 23rd matchday.
With a view to the upcoming second leg of the Champions League round of 16 at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea FC, the floodlit setting has nothing but advantages. Besides, the team of coach Edin Terzic could also temporarily take over the top of the table. Namely, if at least one bet on the double chance 1X pays off between Dortmund and RB Leipzig.
The home side will have their work cut out for them, however, as the Bullen are one of the best-formed teams in the Bundesliga and are travelling to the biggest football stadium in Germany. The Saxons have also won their three most recent direct encounters against BVB and are brimming with confidence after winning four of their last five away games.
Consequently, there is a greater risk in making a prediction on the outcome of the match before the chasing duel Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig. It might even make more sense to turn to the goal market and bet that the 80,000-plus fans at Signal Iduna Park on Friday night will see more goals than on the aforementioned 30.01.2004…
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
As a supporter of Borussia Dortmund, you walk through life these days and weeks with a broad chest. BVB are the only club from Europe’s top ten leagues to have won all nine of their competitive matches so far. In the league, there have been seven wins from the first seven games, in the DFB Pokal, the Black and Yellows prevailed in the round of 16 in Bochum and the Champions League first leg against Chelsea was also won 1:0.
Despite all the justified praise, however, the results must be put into perspective insofar as the team of coach Edin Terzic also had the necessary luck on its side on several occasions. Especially in the previous week’s narrow 1-0 away win in Sinsheim, Borussia should not have complained about one or two goals from TSG Hoffenheim. The ball club also had the luck of the fittest on their side against Chelsea.
When does the pendulum stop swinging to the BVB side?
Eight of the 15 victories so far this season have come by exactly one goal. In five cases alone, the Terzic team won by 1:0. If you want to bet on the home side also winning by a narrow margin of one goal on Friday evening, you can get odds of 4.15 at Betano between Dortmund and RB Leipzig.
Of course, a home win for the second-placed team in the table cannot be ruled out given their current form. The traditional home strength, which is reflected in 25 points from ten games at Signal Iduna Park in 2022/23 and has recently been further polished in an impressive manner with five home wins in a row with 21 goals scored, serves as an additional argument.
Goals pre-programmed at Signal Iduna Park?
At the same time, we think it is very likely that one or the other goal will be scored in this match between two in-form and self-confident teams. This is also supported by the fact that BVB and RBL are the second best attacking teams in the Bundesliga behind Bayern with 45 goals each and have the most dangerous attacking lines in the final quarter of an hour with 13 goals scored. At least four goals were scored in five of Dortmund’s last six home games. The last time there were fewer than three at league level was in mid-September.
Borussia’s most important offensive player at the moment is Julian Brandt, who has scored every time in his last four Bundesliga games for the Black and Yellows, is currently his team’s top scorer with a total of eight goals and four assists, and also runs the most sprints and the most kilometres in his team.
Last matches of Dortmund:
Bundesliga
25/02/2023 – Hoffenheim 0 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
19/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 4 – 1 Hertha BSC
Champions League Final
16/02/2023 – Borussia Dortmund 1 – 0 FC Chelsea
Bundesliga
11/02/2023 – Werder Bremen 0 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
DFB Cup
09/02/2023 – VfL Bochum 1 – 2 Borussia Dortmund
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
Although Marco Rose only survived one season as coach at Borussia Dortmund, he took many people from the club to his heart during this short but very intense time. For the ex-professional, it will therefore be an emotional return to his old stomping ground. From a purely sporting point of view, however, the Leipzig native has no presents to hand out on Friday evening. Big points are at stake for the Central German team in the Bundesliga title race.
Marco Rose’s tenure at RBL so far can simply be described as masterful. On average, the Leipzig side picked up 2.2 points with the ex-Gladbach man and won 65% of all Bundesliga games.
Leipzig top the Rose table
Since its debut on matchday six, the 3-0 first leg win over Dortmund, no other club in the German top flight has picked up more points than the reigning Cup winners. In fact, RB has lost only one of its past 22 competitive matches. Without a doubt, it is therefore a gamble to bet on a defeat for the visitors in the Dortmund vs RB Leipzig clash.
The fourth-placed team in the table has also been very stable and consistently good away from home recently. The Saxons have not lost in seven league matches away from home. Four of the five most recent away games in Germany’s top flight have even been victorious. Only the first away match at Borussia Park was lost by RBL with Marco Rose on the sidelines.
Leipzig’s attack is always good for goals
The Dortmund side should also be concerned that RB’s high-speed attack has scored at least twice in five of their last six appearances in opposing stadiums. The only exception was the 0-0 draw in Cologne at the beginning of February. Furthermore, in nine of the last eleven Leipzig matches, a bet on goals from both teams would have gone through, so we are by no means averse to predicting a lively exchange between Dortmund and RB Leipzig.
In this context, Timo Werner could also play an important role. The international scored against Frankfurt in the previous week and has re-integrated well into the team after his injury. Why we are currently seeing a different Werner than during his Chelsea days and why Ralf Rangnick should never have fielded the speedy attacker from the start.
Last games of RB Leipzig:
Bundesliga
25/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 2 – 1 Eintracht Frankfurt
Champions League Final
23/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 1 – 1 Manchester City
Bundesliga
18/02/2023 – VfL Wolfsburg 0 – 3 RB Leipzig
12/02/2023 – RB Leipzig 1 – 2 Union Berlin
04/02/2023 – 1. FC Köln 0 – 0 RB Leipzig
Dortmund – RB Leipzig Direct comparison / H2H balance
These two teams have faced each other in 13 games so far in the Bundesliga. Borussia Dortmund lead the direct comparison with six wins compared to five defeats and two draws. However, the most recent three encounters in the top flight have all gone to the red bulls, who also had the upper hand in the first leg in front of their home crowd with a commanding 3-0 win.
The Saxons also won 4-1 at Signal Iduna Park in their last outing, scoring at least twice in four successive encounters. Meanwhile, at least three goals were scored in nine of a total of 14 competitive matches. In the past five BVB home games against RBL, the number of goals has always been five or more.
Dortmund – RB Leipzig Tip
The match between Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig brings explosiveness, excitement and drama on many levels. The personnel of Marco Rose should be mentioned on the one hand. The league situation on the other. If BVB get the upper hand on Friday evening, they could distance themselves from the Bullen by as much as seven points and temporarily take over the top spot in the table. Incidentally, the last time the black-and-yellow team finished a complete matchday in first place was in August 2019.
The fact that the betting odds are leaning towards the home team ahead of the top match of the 23rd league matchday between Dortmund and RB Leipzig is of course due to the fact that Terzic’s side have won all nine of their competitive matches in the 2023 football year, have been victorious in all of their five most recent league home matches and have not lost a Friday night match in the top flight for almost 20 years.
But since we know Borussia’s run of success quite well and subjectively have the impression that especially defensively a lot of luck played into it recently, it is not our first approach to bet on a home win. It’s not for nothing that the central city side are unbeaten in seven away games, have won the last three direct duels against the Westphalians and have only lost once in the last 22 competitive matches.
Instead, we believe that the Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig clash will prove to be a three-goal affair.
