Will Dortmund knock the Parisian star ensemble out of the competition?
Will we see Kylian Mbappé in a PSG shirt for the last time in the Champions League on Wednesday evening? That is by no means out of the question, as rumors persist that the Frenchman could move to Real Madrid next summer. On the other hand, Paris St. Germain are threatened with elimination from the group stage of the Champions League during the week. If the prediction of an away win between Dortmund and PSG on the final matchday in Group F does not come true, Paris St Germain will have to hope for the right result in the parallel match between Newcastle and AC Milan
The Black & Yellows can look at the race for a second place in the round of 16 with relative peace of mind. With ten points from five games, BVB’s place in the knockout round is no longer out of reach. Nevertheless, Borussia still has a lot at stake on Wednesday evening. After two defeats in a row against Stuttgart and RB Leipzig, the team in the Ruhr region are desperate to return to winning ways. In addition, they need at least a draw to win the group and thus a supposedly easier draw in the last 16
However, the omens are not particularly good. Head coach Edin Terzic will be without a number of players. Defensively in particular, the BVB coach will be forced to improvise. In view of the disappointing performances and the lack of identity in the match between Dortmund and PSG, it is doubtful whether a bet on the Bundesliga team is the most sensible option. However, Borussia should definitely not be afraid of a world team from the city of love that often plays below its capabilities, especially away from home.
Dortmund – statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund are undoubtedly going through a difficult phase at the moment. After losing 3:2 at home to RB Leipzig, the reigning runners-up are already four points behind the Champions League places in fifth place in the Bundesliga and the Black & Yellows put in an anemic performance in the DFB Cup in Stuttgart eight days ago, which ultimately led to a fully deserved elimination. Almost worse than the sobering results, however, is the way in which Dortmund regularly surrender to their own fate and only reactively adapt to their opponents instead of pursuing their own game plan.
It is therefore all the more surprising that coach Edin Terzic’s team have already booked their place in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League’s group of death with one matchday to go. For the first time since 2020/21, when they even made it to the quarter-finals later on, they can now look forward to winning their group in the top flight. To do so, they need at least one point in their home match against the French champions. However, if the odds on an away win between Dortmund and PSG pay off, Black & Yellow will slip to second place and would have to deal with the next setback, but this time in their favorite competition
Is Terzic making a virtue of his personnel shortage?
In comparison to the performances at national level, it is above all the defense that has so far been convincing in the most important club competition at European level. In five group games, keeper Gregor Kobel has only had to make three saves. At home, the record is even more impressive, as the Swiss goalkeeper, who has had a fantastic season so far, kept two clean sheets against AC Milan (0-0) and Newcastle (2-0). Looking back over the past seven CL home games, he has conceded just one goal.
It sounds as if the home team could be predicted to win against PSG on Wednesday evening, but the worry lines on coach Terzic’s forehead in view of the personnel situation prevail. The soccer coach will have to be inventive, especially in defense.
Ryerson and Wolf are out through injury. Meunier is ineligible for the Premier League and Emre Can is injured. Niklas Süle will move into the starting eleven, a back five seems possible, although open spaces behind the full-back positions could be a real treat for Kylian Mbappé and Co. As the aforementioned successes at international level also involved a lot of luck, it could be a long evening for Mats Hummels, Nico Schlotterbeck and Co. this time. From a defensive base, Borussia will once again focus on switching play. The only annoying thing is that this did not work at all against Leverkusen or Stuttgart and BVB were pushed more and more into the back every minute.
Predicted Dortmund line-up:
PSG – Statistics & current form
The mood at Paris St. Germain is pretty tense at the moment. However, this does not necessarily have anything to do with the fact that the results have not been good recently. Rather, it is due to the dangerous starting position for the final matchday in Group F. Imagine if the star ensemble from the French capital had to face Qarabag Agdam in the Europa League preliminary round in spring 2024 instead of Real Madrid, FC Bayern or Manchester City in the top flight…
The challenge at Signal Iduna Park is therefore not only a sporting one, but also a mental one. One hundred percent concentration, willpower and a cool head are needed to survive in front of the yellow wall and almost 80,000 spectators. However, the Parisians have had their problems at international level in the recent past, particularly away from home.
The reigning champions have lost all of their last three away CL matches. In general, two wins in five group games is of course far too little for the high expectations of the Qatari investors, who once again poured over 300 million euros into the team in the summer to finally fulfill their dream of winning the trophy
Does Mbappé make the difference?
In terms of approach, it can be assumed that coach Luis Enrique’s team will definitely play to win. The trick will be to find the right balance between an unconditional attack and a good defense. This has worked very well in Ligue 1 recently. The Parisians have won eight league matches in a row. The Red & Blues scored at least three times in six of these eight matches.
On Wednesday evening, however, the Spanish head coach will also be forced to reshuffle his attacking trio. The reason for this is the yellow card suspension imposed on former Dortmund player Ousmane Dembele. It is quite possible that Randal Kolo Muani will start on the right, Goncalo Ramos will be preferred in the center and Kylian Mbappé will cause a sensation on the left.
In all of his four appearances against BVB so far, the French international star has been involved in at least one goal. Four goals and one assist have been scored by the speedy captain. Only Cristiano Ronaldo has scored more goals against Borussia in the European Cup than Kylian Mbappé. So if you want to bet on the (transfer-willing) superstar scoring again, you can dust off attractive odds between Dortmund and PSG.
PSG’s expected line-up:
Dortmund – PSG Direct comparison / H2H balance
There have been five meetings between these clubs in the Europa League and Champions League so far. BVB have only come out on top once. Paris St. Germain celebrated two victories, including one in the first leg in mid-September, when the Parisians prevailed 2:1 against an overstretched Borussia. A controversial penalty by Kylian Mbappé broke the spell at the Parc des Princes. However, the French season ticket holders have never won in Dortmund. If it stays that way, Luis Enrique’s team could be out of the CL
Dortmund – PSG betting tip
France expert Alexis Menuge explains why he believes Mbappé will move to England rather than Madrid.
Regardless of this, the superstar will be throwing everything into the balance on Wednesday evening to secure his club’s ticket to the round of 16. In fact, Mbappé could turn out to be a savior, as the powerful winger will certainly get his chances against a decimated BVB defence, which will have to improvise at full-back in particular. We therefore tend to bet that Mbappé will score at least one goal between Dortmund and PSG. Bet365 is offering 1.90 for this.
If the left-winger’s goal is accompanied by an away win, Paris will advance to the round of 16. In the event of a draw or even a defeat, the co-favorites for the CL title will have to worry about progressing. If Newcastle and AC Milan draw in the parallel match, the French side would still progress. Incidentally, the bookmakers are not only predicting that the Parisians will progress, but also that they will win away at Signal Iduna Park. Between Dortmund and PSG, the odds on a three-pointer for the visitors are currently between 1.90 and 1.85.
